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Tesla prediction revisited

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by haid, Mar 15, 2014.

  1. haid

    haid Member

    Feb 14, 2013
    Reston, VA
    Two years ago (before I found Teslamotorsclub) I frequented the Yahoo message boards. I no longer have the energy to fight the trolls there, so I move the thread here. I would like to look back and see how much is still relevant today. First, my original post as of Feb 24, 2012:

    <originalPost>Title: Bull FAQ
    Q1) why should one want to buy Tesla stock

    A) This is a volatile stock. It is risky. If that scares you, then don't invest. It may be especially scary if the stock is near it all time high. However, if you are willing to consider the risk/reward curve, then here is what Tesla has to offer:

    1) battery prices decrease over time… eventually EVs will make sense
    2) EVs are mechanically an order of magnitude simpler than gas cars
    3) EVs have the potential to be far more reliable (from #2)
    4) Tesla is seen as an influencer in the industry (supplier and showcase what's possible)
    5) The model S production capacity is sold out at least for a year one.
    6) Tesla is small; so if successful, it will be a multiplier win, not a percentage bump
    7) Some believe Tesla may become an attractive acquisition target for an existing manufacturer
    8) Tesla has patents and patent applications that some believe will be valuable
    9) Tesla cars are stylish, efficient, and will be green with green power
    10) Tesla Model S has a goal of being the safest car in US crash safety tests
    11) Elon Musk has a history of success despite long odds

    So much has happened in the last two years...
    #1 - Gigafactory should help here
    #2 & #3 - still true.
    #4 - still true. I'd say the last two years and the stock price has raised Tesla's profile.
    #5 - No public waiting list, but instead they have a track record of demand and new markets in Europe & Asia. So I would say "Yes still true"
    #6 - Its hard to say Tesla is still small. With a market cap of 28 Billion, the ability to be a multiplier win is less compelling. So I would say "Maybe"
    #7 - Persistent rumors (Apple?) make this true. But this is unlikely (as it was then).
    #8 - True, but there seem to be less conversation about this these days (perhaps because patents are a topic for unproven or past-prime companies)
    #9 - True
    #10 - No longer just a goal. True
    #11 - True

    All in all, the points hold up pretty well in 2014.

    Buy and hold, baby!
  2. clmason

    clmason Member

    Sep 29, 2011
    San Diego
    Well, on #6 I think there is still a good chance to multiply. By 2020 it could triple to 100 billion. Not the same as getting in one the ground floor at $20 or $30 but at today's price of $230, tripling would place TSLA at ~$700/ share. Others here are forecasting much higher. I see a lot of folks saying "Holding until $1,000" - that's a quadruple+ from today.

    So yes! I agree, buy and hold baby.... Commit to the vision and don't be a weak long!

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