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Tesla Price Estimator

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by wolfson292, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    #1 wolfson292, Mar 2, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2016
    Tesla Resale Price Estimator

    After 2 weeks of work, data from EV-CPO, and data scrapped from the Internet I present a Machine Learning based tool for estimating value of Tesla Model S’s. You can input all the information about your vehicle and it will generate an on-the-fly estimate taking into account various options. Ever wonder how color or a particular feature affects value, this will show it. For now the data does not take into account private sales, so its only based on Tesla direct Inventory and CPO Sales. If anyone would like to share information on direct sales with me, I’d be happy to add them to the model.

    Please take a look at http://www.aginet.com and let me know any feedback. Yes I know bad domain, but I've had it a long time not going to any good use.
     
  2. Max*

    Max* Autopilot != Autonomous

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    Why do I need to register with an email and password to use it?
     
  3. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    To prevent abuse and scripted usage. There is a marginal cost for each estimate due to the underlying Machine Learning system.
     
  4. Max*

    Max* Autopilot != Autonomous

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    Ah, so you want me to pay to use it? You probably should have put that upfront.

    I'm guessing you're using some kind of supervised association rule learning algorithm each time the ev-cpo site updates? Trying to get the algorithm to learn how much each option costs in the resale market and applying that model to the input data the user provides, for a fee?
     
  5. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    The site is not currently charging any money as the dataset was shared by EV-CPO. There is a cost I am personally incurring though, and I don't want it to get out of control.

    The model itself is based on machine learning with a numerical regression targeting the price as output. It's been trained with a set of data including the EV-CPO historical sales records.

    - - - Updated - - -

    There was also a small bug where the Interior option was not showing up on the form. I've now fixed that.
     
  6. palmer_md

    palmer_md Member

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    I configured a 2012 Signature red P85 with every option and it came up with $42,418. Where do I send the money? I might buy two at that price.
     
  7. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    Due to not enough Signature vehicles in the data set they are showing lower prices compared to non-signature models. Not saying its perfect. Only as good as the input data.
     
  8. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    There was a significant error rate with the model if you did not enter your option code list and it looks like most people did not. I've made some changes so that even leaving that blank you should get a more accurate estimate now. Also the Yes/No options were not properly being accounted for in the model which I noticed when wk057 ran a test. That is now fixed as well.
     
  9. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    I haven't looked at it yet (beyond the homepage) but I do have a suggestion:

    Show the last 5* estimates that people have configured on the home page itself. This serves three purposes: (1) gives people a taste and feel for what the site offers, (2) is more engaging for people that are initially off-put by having to register, and (3) is genuinely interesting to see what configurations people are pricing out.

    * Note: It doesn't really have to be updated that often. Also, if you're worried about privacy-type concerns you can add a setting for "this is my secret configuration, don't show it on the homepage".
     
  10. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    I've been working on that actually and it will roll out tonight. Good suggestion. Will also let you re-run estimates as the model improves.
     
  11. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    This has now been implemented along with a few other code fix's. I am not showing the full details of estimates to preserve some privacy.
     
  12. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    Here are some screenshots of it in action.

    Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 12.19.42 PM.png

    Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 12.19.51 PM.png
     
  13. palmer_md

    palmer_md Member

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    2012 with 70D should generate an error since it never existed.
     
  14. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    That is in fact a benefit of something like this. It allows you to see the price for things that never actually existed based on the model. I purposefully have not constrained it to allow allow for combinations offered for sale. The one big flaw for now is it is only showing the CPO price of what Tesla would charge the public. I don't have data on Trade In Values to Tesla or Private Party sales. Even just a few of those records would help considerably as the model already can take into account the values of the various feature combinations. It just needs some input as to the relative value of Trades and Private Sales. If anyone would be willing to PM me that type of data, I'll add it into the model.
     
  15. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    I've now extended the site to list all current US CPO and Inventory vehicles. You can filter for multiple vales at the same time, as well as ranges of prices, miles, years, and VIN's. All data is being sourced directly from Tesla's site.
     
  16. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    Significant improvements to the side including Price History (hover over price), Images (hover over Serial), Option Codes (hover over the O), and the ability to use more than one filter at the same time. Data is updated once per hour. A fairly large history of Tesla CPO sales has been built as well but until its working well, it just shows 100 records if you are logged in.
     
  17. jaguar36

    jaguar36 Member

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    This is awesome wolfson, seems like it works very well. Could you go into a little more detail on why it costs money to run though? Seems like that really limits its usefulness. I just played around with it a bit and I've only got two runs left.

    Another suggestion would be to default to the most popular option, would make it a bit quicker to fill out.
     
  18. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    Machine learning models take a lot of CPU to generate and a little bit of CPU to run. I've put in place a limit to prevent someone from using a script to push mass estimates through. I also think there is value in the system for those wondering if the price they are seeing on a vehicle is good, or what Tesla might be selling their vehicle for if they trade it in. I'd love to have some actual estimates of private sale values, but there is little data out there I can base it on. For anyone that can provide me with genuine details of private sales, I'd be happy to provide unlimited estimates to.

    I can also definitely change the default values of the Drop Downs to the most popular option. I also need to clean the data up a little bit, and I'll be pushing through another run of the master model here soon with updates.
     
  19. jaguar36

    jaguar36 Member

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    Ahh that makes sense.

    Could you do something like have each account accrue an estimate a week or something? Someway to let folks keep making estimates without doing mass runs or anything?

    Also would be nice if it stored the estimates that you've made in the past.
     
  20. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    The site has now been relocated to Home Page - EV-Prices - Tesla Price History & Modeler. Several improvements.
    • Hover over the serial number and get an image of the vehicle
    • Inline Sparkline Graph of the vehicle price history
    • Hover the price for detailed history of Price/Miles/Date (pretty easy to identify vehicles being used as loaners)
    • Data is updated hourly
     

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