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Tesla: Production Of Model 3 To Average 226,563 Units Per Year Over Next Five Years

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by AmpedRealtor, Oct 3, 2017.

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  1. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Well-Known Member

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    Tesla: Production Of Model 3 To Average 226,563 Units Per Year Over Next Five Years - DailyKanban

    This figure is significantly lower than what Tesla executives have been saying to analysts and investors.

    "To understand just how misleading Musk’s statement was, some context and math is necessary... That is 20% lower than the guidance that Musk told investors they should have 'zero concern about,' but even that number would require Model S and X production to double over the course of 2018..."

    Something smells rotten in Fremont.
     
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  2. KarenRei

    KarenRei KarenRei KarenRei KarenRei KarenRei KarenRei

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    #2 KarenRei, Oct 3, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2017
    What is "the Project"? It's defined:

    So Tesla is working on "an expansion" which will "launch" Model 3 production and produce "226,563 units per year".

    What's missing? Anything, anywhere, that says that this "Project" is the only Model 3 production line that is and ever will be.

    More to the point, we know for a long time that Tesla has been teasing the concept of manufacturing vehicles in other global markets, closer to where they're sold. If they were to be producing all 500k per year at Fremont for the next five years, how would that be possible? Not that they couldn't just do another "Project" to expand Fremont in addition to the current one.

    I see this as nothing more than saying "What we're building now will average half of Model 3's target production." Not "We're stopping at 226563 vehicles per year."
     
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  3. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

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    Ahhhh the always fair-and-balanced Daily Kanban - run by the objective Bertel Schmitt - a man who has not had a single nice word to say about Tesla since - ever?
     
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  4. Max*

    Max* Not Banned

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    I'll let people who are smarter than me find the hidden gems in this, and it seems that KarenRei might have found at least one, but I think it's a stretch to assume that Tesla intentionally mislead investors. Will they miss delivery deadlines? Sure, but this is completely different.
     
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  5. Sean Wagner

    Sean Wagner Member

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    If you click through to the original document, it's clear that it originates with the CA government and was not authored by Tesla. Hence, context should be doubly important. The DailyKanban author has made no efforts to ascertain he better understands that by reaching out to the relevant department and the document's creator.

    Also, "Average 226,563 Units Per Year Over Next Five Years":

    If that sort of "planning precision" doesn't show the only object is to present the minimum case for tax exemption, I won't go out of my way to clear things up. We also know Tesla changed their plans for the Model 3's output significantly, and said so publicly.

    Quite frankly, ignore and proceed.
     
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  6. 206er

    206er Member

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    No offense, and I agree that the source article is suspect, but your approach seems to be what many Tesla enthusiasts around here take when something negative about Tesla/Elon comes up.

    I am supportive of Tesla but way less enthused about them/the Model 3 than ever before.
     
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  7. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    All we know is that the numbers disagree. We don't know what this number really means or why it is what it is. I find it interesting, but to jump to the conclusion that Tesla is engaged in deliberate fraud seems far fetched. And even if they were deliberately lying about a number, how do we know that it isn't this one being lied about in order to defraud the California government? It seems much more logical that there is simply another explanation for the number.
     
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  8. KarenRei

    KarenRei KarenRei KarenRei KarenRei KarenRei KarenRei

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    Agreed. The concept that Tesla's "evil plan" was to tell investors one thing and then file public documents stating another, and hope nobody would find out.... I mean, seriously people....
     
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  9. Sean Wagner

    Sean Wagner Member

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    And that's perfectly understandable. I do try to separate the signal from the noise.

    Think I need to be clearer too - that last number is ludicrous in its precision. At least no engineer would [hopefully] take it seriously. I suspect it's some kind of amalgam that emerged either from the CA government employee's efforts, or a financial person at Tesla. We have no idea of the context beyond that.

    Set that against what we know by way of the guys in charge, ie. Tesla's senior figures - both their quotes and their sometimes "inspired" goals.

    They will get there, they know how to build 100'000 cars per annum. All it takes now is a lot of diligent problem solving. Once the Model 3 is being shipped world wide, the question of this delay's length will be moot. What they really need to get right is the quality, as neither the service centers nor the rangers have the capacity to deal with many recalls, I think.

    Good thing Elon Musk accepted to be persuaded to build the Model Y on the same platform rather than introduce another jump in applied technologies.
     
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  10. dhanson865

    dhanson865 Active Member

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    Tell me about it when a reputable source reports on it without siting DailyKanban or quoting it's logic without citation. Bertel Schmitt has had it out for Tesla since before GM went bankrupt and will do and say anything to make Tesla look bad (he has it out for most US car manufacturers so don't misinterpret my time cue to mean that he likes GM).
     
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  11. omgwtfbyobbq

    omgwtfbyobbq Member

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    The 226,563 figure is from an earlier request that was prepared by Ashley Bonnett, an analyst, probably employed by the state of CA.

    http://www.treasurer.ca.gov/caeatfa/meeting/staff/2016/20161213/4a1.pdf

    Here's something else she authored.

    http://www.treasurer.ca.gov/caeatfa/meeting/staff/2016/20160719/4a.pdf

    The 500,000 figure from Tesla is for worldwide production of the S, X, and 3, not just the 3.

    tsla-10q_20160331.htm

    This should be old news to any analyst or investor who has been paying attention for the past couple years.
     
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  12. hockeythug

    hockeythug Active Member

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    Take this nonsense over to the investing section.
     
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  13. Yggdrasill

    Yggdrasill Active Member

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    I'm sure that someone at Tesla at some point projected a production in line with the 226k figure. But Tesla has accelerated it's plans, and projections must always be revised down the line, anyway.
     
  14. JohnSnowNW

    JohnSnowNW Active Member

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    #14 JohnSnowNW, Oct 3, 2017
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2017
    I don't see the point in linking to the DailyKanban...and, quite frankly, you should know better.

    Bertel Schmitt and Edward Niedemeyer's Twitter accounts is all one needs to know to understand why.
     
  15. Nosken

    Nosken Member

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    Could that number be for US delivery only?
     
  16. 03DSG

    03DSG Member

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    Bert and Ed? Total ignore.
     
  17. cwerdna

    cwerdna Active Member

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    Does it really matter who wrote it?

    The document says
    Yet Tesla Reports Q3 Sales: Model 3 Sales/Production Miss Mark | Inside EVs and At this point, Tesla essentially looks like the electric vehicle market which points to http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/4511855492x0x952053/F302D22F-FC9B-41A3-9534-60D0032673CC/TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-2Q.pdf which says
    "We also continue to plan on increasing Model 3 production to 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."

    You can d/l the same letter from Download Library | Tesla Motors. It's the Q2'17 Update Letter.
     

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