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Tesla Propping up Resale Value with FSD and Free Supercharging?

MC00

Member
May 17, 2020
32
16
Chicago
I'm shopping for my first Tesla so I signed up for a premium subscription on EV-CPO.com. On reviewing the price history of individual listings in the current used inventory, I can't help but observe that prices were trending downward at a greater than normal depreciation rate for 8-10 weeks up to May 16 when - seemingly at once - many of them shot up sharply. See the attached graphs for an example. As of this moment, 366/450 or 81% of used Model S' in the US inventory are offering Free Unlimited Supercharging and 306/450 or 68% (192/200 or 96% of those 2017 or newer) come with Full Self-Driving Capability included. *I deliberately omit Archived Listings data based on the ev-cpo.com terms.

I could be wrong. Does it look to anyone else like they are desperately trying to prop up prices in order to protect their historical advantage in resale value? Or is there some other strategy in play?
 

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EV-CPO

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Jan 3, 2018
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https://ev-cpo.com
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*I deliberately omit Archived Listings data based on the ev-cpo.com terms.

Feel free to post summarized analyses based on the archived data, just not raw data.

Does it look to anyone else like they are desperately trying to prop up prices in order to protect their historical advantage in resale value? Or is there some other strategy in play?

It's fairly common for Tesla car prices to have a 'sawtooth' pattern where they gradually lower prices over a two or three week period, and then suddenly jump back to the original price. It's so anyone watching is seeing almost constant price decreases, and it's a game to see where any pending buyers might jump in and buy before it hits the bottom threshold price.

But the graphs you posted have a similar, but very different pattern. So I think it's a function of both price manipulation like they always do, and perhaps something else related to current market conditions, pending changes in the new configurations and they want to clear out the used inventory before prices are pushed even lower. But who knows for sure? With Tesla it's always a guessing game with price changes (manipulation) like this.

Good luck in your search.
 

SSedan

Active Member
Jul 24, 2017
2,948
2,323
Greenville Wisconsin
They routinely play with offering those incentives end of quarter or whatever to boost sales end.of quarter in particular.

I think you are reading too much into it.

Free supercharging is of little actual value but had perceive value so it is a great business decision if they can get.folks to.pay extra for it.
 

MC00

Member
May 17, 2020
32
16
Chicago
Whether a COVID dip presents an anomaly or whether it has simply accelerated the inevitable is definitely the underlying question in my mind. There are a ton of factors to consider. I'll present a few:
(1) Tesla production numbers are sharply increasing;
(2) A new, 2020 Model S is selling at a discount to what a similarly equipped 2017-2019 Model S sold for. Consider that the top of the line is no longer $140k+. It's $112k. So the depreciation curve now starts there;
(3) Meanwhile, that new car, selling at a 15-20% discount to its predecessors is offering enhanced performance and range, making the legacy inventory less desirable by comparison.
(4) It's now widely accepted that ICE price parity is on the horizon. This could be interpreted as a flashing neon sign that we're going to pay an early adopter penalty for buying in at this precise moment.
*I concede that likely none of this - even if every point turns out to be true - reduces the joy of ownership. I'm purely attempted to analyze the cost of ownership.
 
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