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Tesla Q1 Earnings Call: Flufferbot, Model Y, and the 'Best-Selling' Model 3

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by TMC Staff, May 2, 2018.

  1. chetmmd

    chetmmd Member

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    I am saying he should not be a
    j = d3s/dt3

    When it involves dealing with the people who control the massive amounts of money that Wall Street has invested in his stock. So it is the opposite: if you are a CEO of a publicly traded company you do have to control what is put out to the public, as well as what the company is doing. If you can't do that, step away from the CEO role. TSLA has to go public, because it needs the immense amount of capital that wall street can bring. Otherwise, you are John Z DeLorean, and we all know how that turned out (and I am old enough to remember that whole story)
     
  2. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Banned

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    #22 Garlan Garner, May 3, 2018
    Last edited: May 3, 2018
    There is another company that a person named Nikola Tesla started that didn't go well either.

    When it involves dealing with people..........? For Tesla it will ALWAYS involve dealing with people.....so Elon can't just be company focused or at least the CFO needs to be. He has to be publically focused. Its not a matter of controlling information....Its about being truthful about what IS happening and what you PLAN to do. OR ELSE.....he public will remove its investment. Its really really simple.

    I believe that the stock would not be down 7% today if Tesla was in the black for the 1st quarter. Investors understand what it takes to make Tesla profitable in the future as it invests in its own infrastructure. They get that, but hmmmmm.........they seem to not be caring about that lately. Elon shouldn't care?
     
  3. S'toon

    S'toon Knows where his towel is

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    Remember, manufactured doesn't mean the same thing as delivered.

    Those manufactured in the last couple of weeks had to be transported to the customer.
     
    • Informative x 1
  4. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Banned

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    Yes, but the same holds true for those manufactured Dec 2017. So its a wash.
     
  5. Ulmo

    Ulmo Active Member

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    I'm not directly disagreeing, but I think right now it also shows that Elon isn't trying to do a capital raise, because they are fairly sure they won't need it.
     
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  6. Ulmo

    Ulmo Active Member

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    #26 Ulmo, May 3, 2018
    Last edited: May 3, 2018
    It can be a wash if the cars in transit is the same quarter to quarter, but that's not true during the ramp up. Right now it's the minor bad side of a few factors: more money spent in Q1 than Q4 making more cars, more cars in transit in Q1 than Q4, more interest on existing debt, and more time with more expenses being paid before the ramp up income, which will have to come after the cars in transit are delivered. But there's one factor that is very good: the ramp up is happening, which will get to the profitability crossover point, and all of the "bad" factors will start disappearing. Long term investors have known this for many years already, and were expecting all of this. Right now, Tesla has enough money to make it through to profitability without getting new capital, according to everything they can see, so they're going to stick to that plan.

    This is the second time I heard Elon say "Now that we're at Model 3, the shareholders deserve us to be profitable." Basically, that was the business plan since the beginning, so they're following through. But the overall goals of the company are to clean up energy, so that obviously means after profitability is proven, that they keep going, with Model Y, Truck, Pickup, modern Roadster, as well as the other energy products they're doing in order to clean up the input end, which is necessary: solar retrofit, solar new roof, and battery, all of which are ramping up. It will be interesting if they fund all of that via revenue or want to raise new capital at that time. They could go either way. I think showing profit from all their current shipping products and pay down of almost all their debt would be enough to show investors that they are worth it, if Tesla wants to grow faster than just using revenue. If they do that it will also be interesting how much debt they pay down before growing faster again.
     
  7. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Banned

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    Come on now.

    Tesla said they were at 1K per week on January 1st. There were 12 weeks @ 1k per week which would have resulted in 12K cars.

    They just reported that there were only 8k cars credited. There are 4 weeks missing......A Whole Months worth.

    I don't care how many cars are in transit........there isn't a whole months worth.


    It doesn't matter....I know you will find them in fandomland
     
  8. Ulmo

    Ulmo Active Member

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    About 10 weeks the factory was running, so about 10,000. They said 9,766. That's not a month missing. You're claiming they're lying. My review of their VIN #s and car parking lots has never found them lying about what they've made.

    I leave you with this quote from the Q1 review letter discussing what's coming for Q2: "Furthermore, in the just over two weeks between the beginning of April and the planned downtime, we had produced 4,750 Model 3 vehicles, which was already about half the production of the entire prior quarter."

    Screen Shot 2018-05-03 at 6.40.50 PM.png
    They made almost as many Model 3's in April (~9,219) as they did in January through March combined (9,766).
     
    • Informative x 1
  9. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Banned

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    LOL

    We'll see......in the 3rd quarter.

    Do you think they will meet their 5K per week by the end of this quarter? Isn't that the promise?
    I for sure hope so.......because then I will get my dual Motor AWD version.
     
    • Disagree x 1
  10. 2012MS85

    2012MS85 Member

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    Actually, 13 weeks in each quarter. And this just makes Tesla's low actuals all the more disappointing.

    . Where did you find this output for April? I'm pretty positive Model 3 production for April was far less given the plant shutdown; do we know how many days this actually lasted? M3 production was likely around 300 per day (~2k per week). So they'd have needed all 30 days of April to reach over 9k.

    Here's the upside of lower output...I'm confident Tesla won't SELL 200k EVs in the US until July 2 (i.e., Q3), so that preserves the full $7500 tax credit through the end of 2018. And partial credits through NYE 2019. That's a good thing for the 400k future owners :)
     
    • Like x 1
  11. 2012MS85

    2012MS85 Member

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    If relying only on Bloomberg's production model, please beware that they make no corrections at all for plant shutdowns. We know there was a shutdown of significance in April. If anyone knows how many days (employees forced to take vacation), please share. I'm guessing it was at least one week, maybe the better part of two?!? And did production resume at the full, prior rate of 300/day? Or once they pulled out all the excess automation, did this temporarily slow down the M3 line? Maybe it quickly increased output above the 2k/week? Would love to hear from anyone with real knowledge. Thanks!
     
  12. chetmmd

    chetmmd Member

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    The problem here is that he might as cash burn continues and with planned capital outlays this year he may very well need one next year. yes, I know wall street memories are short. BUt I do not see the 'Y' going into production without a significant raise of capital
     
  13. scaesare

    scaesare Well-Known Member

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    So when your assertion is refuted with data, the response is "LOL"?

    Are you interested in getting down to the actual facts, or do you prefer to indict on page one and retract on page 12?
     
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  14. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    5k/wk * 50,000 ASP * 20% margin * 12wk/quarter = $600 million per quarter gross profit second half 2018
    5k/wk * 40,000 ASP * 25% margin * 12wk/quarter = $600 million per quarter gross profit first half 2018
    10k/wk * 40,000 ASP * 20% margin * 12wk/quarter = $960 million per quarter gross profit second half 2019
    CapEx for 3 line is wrapping up (5k version), making room for Y capEx to start in 2019.
     
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  15. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    This is a really important point and worth highlighting.

    The prospect of several billion in gross profit in 2019 from the car business with dramatically shrinking OpEx as a percentage of revenue and increasing margins in the energy business is a very potent combination. It is not difficult to see how a combination of 100+% revenue growth Y/Y, while holding OpEx to a fraction of that and dramatically increasing gross margins, could result in sustained profitability and significant cash generation.

    And as much as I hate to see Model Y and Semi production delayed a bit, holding off significant investments in production of major new products makes the path toward profitability and positive cash generation relatively straightforward for the next 6-12 months. Model 3s being produced at volume and generating cash and profits should improve confidence that Tesla can deliver on the Model Y and Semi, which are both likely to be incredible products.

    The next 6-12 months look as promising for Tesla the company as any time in its history. Whether the stock follows right away is anyone's guess but for long-term shareholders the future has never looked brighter IMO.
     
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  16. chetmmd

    chetmmd Member

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    I only hope you are correct. As I hope i made clear I am both long the stock and a very happy Tesla S owner AND go to bed every night dreaming of watching the TSLA shorts burn (figuratively speaking). We are running real close to the margins is all...
     
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  17. chetmmd

    chetmmd Member

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    That is what need to be said in the next CC
     
  18. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    I hope I'm wrong, those are my pessimistic volume growth, ASP, and margin numbers! (I totally forgot P/D):)
     
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  19. Jimbo435

    Jimbo435 Member

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    As someone who is investing for the long term, I am thankfull for the current drop in price. It will make my May monthly investment cost a lot less.
     
  20. Jimbo435

    Jimbo435 Member

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    This is always a conflict I think at companies. Do you make commitments you know you can meet with almost 100% certanty, knowing that you will get hammered immediately for them being so poor? (but praised when you beat them) Or do you make a commiment that you know everything will have to go 100% correct to meet, knowing that should you miss it, you will get hammered? Knowing what little I do about Elon, he is an optimistic guy (thank goodness). So I think he will always take the second option. Believing that, I am not shocked when they slip dates.
     

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