Tesla Q2 2016 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

[ecarfan]

Tesla Q2 2016 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla Q2 2016 Vehicle Production and Deliveries


PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 07/03/16 -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) produced 18,345 vehicles in Q2, an increase of 20% from Q1, and exited the quarter consistently producing just under 2,000 vehicles per week. Due to the steep production ramp, almost half of the quarter's production occurred in the final four weeks.

With continued productivity improvements, Tesla expects output to reach 2,200 vehicles per week in Q3 and 2,400 vehicles per week in Q4. Current order rate trends and backlog support production at those levels. In total, Tesla expects to produce and deliver about 50,000 vehicles during the second half of 2016, approximately equal to all of 2015.

Due to the extreme production ramp in Q2 and the high mix of customer-ordered vehicles still on trucks and ships at the end of the quarter, Tesla Q2 deliveries were lower than anticipated at 14,370 vehicles, consisting of 9,745 Model S and 4,625 Model X. In total, 5,150 customer-ordered vehicles were still in transit at the end of the quarter and will be delivered in early Q3. That amount was higher than expected (there were 2,615 vehicles in transit to customers at the end of Q1) and is more than a third of the number of cars that completed delivery in Q2.

 

[adiggs]

I love this level of detail from Tesla right at the end of the quarter. I care about number of vehicles produced, and the color provided when the production is highly skewed as this is. I realize that other people are more concerned with deliveries, and there is delivery information here as well for them. This is information that is all known to Tesla in the past - I'm hoping this is the immediate information we can expect to see in the future.

 

[smorgasbord]

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) produced 18,345 vehicles in Q2, an increase of 20% from Q1, and exited the quarter consistently producing just under 2,000 vehicles per week. Due to the steep production ramp, almost half of the quarter's production occurred in the final four weeks.

With continued productivity improvements, Tesla expects output to reach 2,200 vehicles per week in Q3 and 2,400 vehicles per week in Q4. Current order rate trends and backlog support production at those levels. In total, Tesla expects to produce and deliver about 50,000 vehicles during the second half of 2016, approximately equal to all of 2015.

Due to the extreme production ramp in Q2 and the high mix of customer-ordered vehicles still on trucks and ships at the end of the quarter, Tesla Q2 deliveries were lower than anticipated at 14,370 vehicles, consisting of 9,745 Model S and 4,625 Model X. In total, 5,150 customer-ordered vehicles were still in transit at the end of the quarter and will be delivered in early Q3. That amount was higher than expected (there were 2,615 vehicles in transit to customers at the end of Q1) and is more than a third of the number of cars that completed delivery in Q2.

General reaction in the press and investing blogs is negative - so what am I missing? I see:
1) Tesla will make as many cars as it made all of last year within the next 6 months
2) This higher production rate is supported by the current backlog and order rate trend
3) Over 5K deliveries that probably should have happened in Q2 will now occur in Q3, so that helps next quarter's numbers.
4) Model X deliveries are almost 48% of Model S, so Model X isn't failing in the market

Which is all good, no?

 

[ZsoZso]

General reaction in the press and investing blogs is negative - so what am I missing? I see:
1) Tesla will make as many cars as it made all of last year within the next 6 months
2) This higher production rate is supported by the current backlog and order rate trend
3) Over 5K deliveries that probably should have happened in Q2 will now occur in Q3, so that helps next quarter's numbers.
4) Model X deliveries are almost 48% of Model S, so Model X isn't failing in the market

Which is all good, no?

The problem is that the positive news is all about the future (i.e. promises), while the hard facts related to the actual performance in Q2 is that it is the biggest miss relative to guidance in the history of the company. In fact, delivery numbers are LOWER than in Q1, which in turn was lower than Q4 previous year. So delivery numbers not only did not ramp as rapidly as promised but did not ramp AT ALL !

So in short summary: all sizzle, no steak.

Frankly, I am surprised the market did not react much more harshly to such a huge miss, the little drop following the news was quickly recovered and the SP is going up, like if all was rosy.

 

[neroden]

Those who know Tesla know that Musk always overpromises. So he undershoots his target (as always), it's still a huge increase over last year, so we're OK with that. Basically this is a "business as usual" report to those who are used to Musk's style.

 

[GoTslaGo]

The problem is that the positive news is all about the future (i.e. promises), while the hard facts related to the actual performance in Q2 is that it is the biggest miss relative to guidance in the history of the company. In fact, delivery numbers are LOWER than in Q1, which in turn was lower than Q4 previous year. So delivery numbers not only did not ramp as rapidly as promised but did not ramp AT ALL !

So in short summary: all sizzle, no steak.

Frankly, I am surprised the market did not react much more harshly to such a huge miss, the little drop following the news was quickly recovered and the SP is going up, like if all was rosy.

IMHO, the market is reacting positively because they announced that they are able to produce 2k cars/week, consistently for the month of June. This means that the bottleneck in deliveries comes from the ships, trains, sales centers and distribution network. Not production, which is where it always was.

This means that Tesla can ramp up production for future output, and helps identify what is the next bottleneck to fix.