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Discussion in 'Model 3' started by lunitiks, Oct 2, 2017.
Tesla Q3 2017 Vehicle Deliveries and Production (NASDAQ:TSLA)
"manufacturing subsystems ... have taken longer to activate than expected"
"the manufacturing bottleneck issues"
"needs to be fixed"
Model 3 Sales...
Jul - 30 (source - Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard)
Aug - 75 (source - Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard)
Sep - 115 (source - Tesla Q3 2017 Vehicle Deliveries and Production (NASDAQ:TSLA))
He missed the 1,500 number for September by just a hair!
Range for estimate seriously in question. The last month of the "3 month window" for 3 deliveries seem like a best case scenario now.
And so is Q4?
Last month of the following year seems to be more realistic.
If you see the glass half full, you can assume the are from a few weeks to a month behind schedule and are trying to resolve any issues. If you see the glass as half empty, their ability to scale is is seriously in question and our delivery estimates could be off by a year or more..
I could see that if you said he missed the August delivery goal of 100, and only produced 75 cars.
But when he went from 75 cars in August to 115 cars in September, his promise of exponential growth from 100 to 1,500 seems like another one of Elon's over promises and under deliveries; and not a potential 1 month delay.
But I would love to be wrong. I'd much rather get my 3 sooner than later.
At this point I don't think it's fair to assume the delay is greater than a month. Elon is always optimistic when he shares time tables. I would have put money on there being a delay given history. I believe, If their Q3 report is to be taken at face value, the S curve is just starting later than anticipated. But that doesn't preclude the exponential ramp actually happening in Q4. Have a little faith. "Production Hell" isn't easy.
Very expected I feel. Elon is never on time. His estimates are extremely optimistic. Doubt Tesla will produce 20k cars a month till next June.
I don't see why you would assume that to be true. They thought they'd start ramping up in September and missed it, but to assume that means they can't ramp rather than just being late to ramp doesn't make sense. There were indications that production was increasing right at the end of September, so we'll see.
Tesla has never missed a deadline yet!!! Shocked I tell you, in six months they will definitely have it ironed out!
And only off by a factor of 5 or so.... So much for that S curve, it appears to be more like my grandmother driving to the grocery store curve.
If I get my "Dec-Feb" car before easter I'll be fairly surprised at this point. My optimism is just gone.
Well, given the current production guidance, take whatever it was telling you and multiply it by a factor of 5 and maybe you will not be disappointed.
Looks like Tesla delivered more than 25,000 non-Model 3 cars this recent quarter. At this rate, it is only a matter of two quarters before hitting the 200K ceiling assuming they produce just a few thousand Model 3 cars in the next 6 months. In other words, April-June seems to be the quarter when the 200K will be reached.
Assuming the above, Model 3 deliveries between now and September 2018 seems to have the best chance to maximise $7.5K tax fed credit. Anyone see otherwise?
Super disappointing. Was feeling sorta deflated after the final reveal, and now I'll be surprised if my car is ready even 2-3 months after my current Jan-Mar 2018 window.
My enthusiasm for Tesla continues to dwindle...
When are we going to learn to stop listening to Elon Musk...
Actually let's have a look at Tesla's webpage. It has an S-curve diagram right there. I broke it down real quick in Paint and the numbers don't seem that bad:
The page also states that Customer deliveries don't begin until "late October"...
EDIT: Ok, I just realized the diagram says produced per week.
Hit me with those