Tesla Q3 2017 Vehicle Deliveries and Production

[206er]

Looks like Tesla produced more than 25,000 non-Model 3 cars this recent quarter. At this rate, it is only a matter of two quarters before hitting the 200K ceiling assuming they produce just a few thousand Model 3 cars in the next 6 months. In other words, April-June seems to be the quarter when the 200K will be reached.

Assuming the above, Model 3 deliveries between now and September 2018 seems to have the best chance to maximise $7.5K tax fed credit. Anyone see otherwise?

Assuming a republican tax reform plan doesn't abruptly eliminate it. Maybe unlikely, but the longer we have to wait, the greater the risk is (in my eyes).

 

[206er]

When will we learn to stop listening to Elon Musk...

Actually let's have a look at Tesla's webpage. It actually has an S-curve diagram right there. I broke it down real quick in Paint and the numbers don't seem that bad:
View attachment 251372

The page also states that Customer deliveries don't begin until "late October"...

Thoughts?

EDIT: Ok, the diagram is produced per week.

Hit me with those

Could be wrong but, didn't it used to say October versus late October? Starting to feel like I'm being strung along here.

 

[Jopo43]

So what other car do I buy? Tired of waiting for this car and never getting any info top secret ....

 

[scaesare]

Hey, remember that month in October of 1908 where the Ford Model T hit a snag ramping up?


Yeah... me neither.

 

[206er]

So what other car do I buy? Tired of waiting for this car and never getting any info top secret ....

I guess an i3 or Leaf...?

Totally not looking forward to the holiday season now. My wife taking notice of 1) an absence of positive Model 3 updates from me + 2) Honda's year-end Happy Honda Days ads could have us in a Civic or Accord by the end of the year.

 

[run-the-joules]

So what other car do I buy? Tired of waiting for this car and never getting any info top secret ....

If anything expensive breaks on my car before I have ordered and have a REAL delivery estimate (not this vague BS), I'm buying an Audi A4 with all the options except rear side airbags and big wheels.

 

[crackers8199]

Assuming a republican tax reform plan doesn't abruptly eliminate it. Maybe unlikely, but the longer we have to wait, the greater the risk is (in my eyes).

i can't imagine the big business GOP would do something that would so drastically endanger an american company. just my opinion...

 

[SouthFLGuy]

It's sad but it didn't work out for me. I wanted to wait for the 3 but couldn't do it due to my lease being up. That plus I just wasn't convinced of the single console in the center. In a few years we should have a much wider selection of EVs to choose from. I'm keeping my eye on the Jaguar I-Pace.

 

[206er]

i can't imagine the big business GOP would do something that would so drastically endanger an american company. just my opinion...

maybe any time during the last 50 years I might agree with you, but we're living in, um, unprecedented times...

 

[gregincal]

Could be wrong but, didn't it used to say October versus late October? Starting to feel like I'm being strung along here.

No, it's said late October since the first day it was posted.

 

[Jopo43]

This rate I may get the car by this time 2018 or longer

 

[EfficientWatts]

Looks like Tesla delivered more than 25,000 non-Model 3 cars this recent quarter. At this rate, it is only a matter of two quarters before hitting the 200K ceiling assuming they produce just a few thousand Model 3 cars in the next 6 months. In other words, April-June seems to be the quarter when the 200K will be reached.

Assuming the above, Model 3 deliveries between now and September 2018 seems to have the best chance to maximise $7.5K tax fed credit. Anyone see otherwise?

FYI it is important to remember that the tax credit for US only concerns US deliveries. We would actually need to break out US deliveries specifically to see when we would hit the 200k limit.

 

[jhs_7645]

So what other car do I buy? Tired of waiting for this car and never getting any info top secret ....

EDIT: The post below is based on my bogus assumption of 260 sales, not produced.. I'll leave it for maximum mocking.. but you can safely ignore between the lines:
---------
Really?

Elon tweeted that total "produced" cars by the end of Sept could be 1500 (if the ramp goes to plan), they *sold* 260 meaning prepped, delivered, sold. Assuming sales are behind production, you can bet that the sales probably represent 2 weeks (at least???) behind production.

If you assume the following

1. Sales of 260 represent a subset of cars produced by that date since it doesn't account for cars not sold, but produced by the end of the month
2. Their production rate of 'unsold' cars over the last couple weeks of the month was their highest production rate so far (again.. assuming a continued ramp)

Then you can probably feel pretty good that Tesla has produced (as of the end of Sept) somewhere in the neighborhood of 800 cars?? (again.. just a SWAG). This puts them roughly 2 weeks behind where Elon said they would be in my estimation. Hardly time to panic.
--------

EDIT: I'll leave my post so people can continue to make fun of me, but yes.. I mis-understood production of 260 v. sales of 260. My bad.. ignore all the above.

 

[thegooch49]

I'm a little bummed too.....I know this news is not a huge deal on it's own, but stack it with other minor annoyances around the 3, I think I'm going to look closer at a CPO Model S.

 

[Runt8]

Is it possible to ignore an entire thread?

 

[lunitiks]

Then you can probably feel pretty good that Tesla has produced (as of the end of Sept) somewhere in the neighborhood of 800 cars?? (again.. just a SWAG). This puts them roughly 2 weeks behind where Elon said they would be in my estimation.

Kind of hard to do when Tesla officially says that their total production was 260

 

[9erDog]

Everyone please panic and bail on your reservations. I think that's the best move now. I'll take the hit and stay in line for the greater good.

 

[run-the-joules]

Really?

Elon tweeted that total "produced" cars by the end of Sept could be 1500 (if the ramp goes to plan), they *sold* 260 meaning prepped, delivered, sold. Assuming sales are behind production, you can bet that the sales probably represent 2 weeks (at least???) behind production.

If you assume the following

1. Sales of 260 represent a subset of cars produced by that date since it doesn't account for cars not sold, but produced by the end of the month
2. Their production rate of 'unsold' cars over the last couple weeks of the month was their highest production rate so far (again.. assuming a continued ramp)

Then you can probably feel pretty good that Tesla has produced (as of the end of Sept) somewhere in the neighborhood of 800 cars?? (again.. just a SWAG). This puts them roughly 2 weeks behind where Elon said they would be in my estimation. Hardly time to panic.

260 built. 220 delivered. You misinterpreted the results pretty profoundly.

 

[Trips]

Really?

Elon tweeted that total "produced" cars by the end of Sept could be 1500 (if the ramp goes to plan), they *sold* 260 meaning prepped, delivered, sold. Assuming sales are behind production, you can bet that the sales probably represent 2 weeks (at least???) behind production.

If you assume the following

1. Sales of 260 represent a subset of cars produced by that date since it doesn't account for cars not sold, but produced by the end of the month
2. Their production rate of 'unsold' cars over the last couple weeks of the month was their highest production rate so far (again.. assuming a continued ramp)

Then you can probably feel pretty good that Tesla has produced (as of the end of Sept) somewhere in the neighborhood of 800 cars?? (again.. just a SWAG). This puts them roughly 2 weeks behind where Elon said they would be in my estimation. Hardly time to panic.

They produced 260 with 220 delivered.

 

[run-the-joules]

Everyone please panic and bail on your reservations. I think that's the best move now. I'll take the hit and stay in line for the greater good.

I'm sticking around as long as I reasonably can. I'll be using the motorcycle every day I can instead of my current car in hopes the car doesn't have something expensive break before I can trade it in.