TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC
Start a Discussionhttps://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/tags/

Tesla reaches 100000 US cars sold, halfway towards tax credit cap

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Az_Rael, Jan 10, 2017.

Tags:
  1. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2016
    Messages:
    2,527
    Location:
    Palmdale, CA
    • Like x 1
  2. msanborn08

    msanborn08 Member

    Joined:
    May 26, 2016
    Messages:
    20
    Location:
    rockford il
    Not looking good for me considering I'm somewhere in the 320-350k reservation holder line. ;/
     
    • Informative x 1
  3. alseTrick

    alseTrick Active Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2016
    Messages:
    1,399
    Location:
    Florida, USA
    So if Tesla delivers 100k S/X next year, that's 50k+ in the US. I think 25-50k deliveries for the 3 is realistic in 2017.

    If that's the case, hopefully Tesla hits 200k US sales in early January, 2018. Crank out another 75-100k 3s by midyear that will get the full credit, and another 100-125k 3s by year end that will receive half credit. And then another 200k in the first half of 2019 for a quarter credit (though, by this time the early US reservations will already be fulfilled and they'll have started on Canada and other foreign markets as well, I think).

    *No, I don't think Tesla will deliver 500k cars in 2018. They have an overly ambitious stated production ramp, but they will still produce several hundred thousand, I think/hope.

    *I expect my car in mid/late 2018 with, most likely, a 50% credit (in the 350-400k place in line worldwide - mid April reservation, so ~175-200k US?)
     
    • Like x 1
  4. alseTrick

    alseTrick Active Member

    Joined:
    May 17, 2016
    Messages:
    1,399
    Location:
    Florida, USA
    Foreign deliveries don't count towards the US tax credit, and early US reservations will be delivered before early international reservations.
     
  5. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2016
    Messages:
    1,317
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
    Do you think they will extend the cap? Will it take much to do so?

    I imagine Elon would be able to convince Trump to keep the program going. Tesla is 'American' as it gets when it comes to vehicles on our roads.

    GM with the Bolt I imagine would want to extend the cap. They sell quite a few Volts because of that.
     
    • Funny x 1
  6. jsmay311

    jsmay311 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2016
    Messages:
    222
    Location:
    Chicago suburbs
    #6 jsmay311, Jan 10, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2017
    Since I have no life ;), I've been keeping track of sales per manufacturer based on InsideEVs Plug-In Sales Scorecard in a spreadsheet.
    Based on those numbers, I come up with 111,949 U.S. Tesla sales thru 2016, with 47,644 of those in 2016 alone. (Granted, it's based on "estimated" Tesla numbers.)

    GM: 123,964
    Nissan: 103,578
    Ford: 83,701
     
    • Informative x 2
    • Like x 1
  7. jsmay311

    jsmay311 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2016
    Messages:
    222
    Location:
    Chicago suburbs
    I wouldn't bet on Congress doing anything on this front given Republicans' ambivalence/disdain towards EVs and EV subsidies and Congress's general dysfunction.

    That said... one optimistic outcome that I see as possible and politically feasible is a compromise in which:
    1. All remaining credits are put in one big pool available to all automakers, rather than having 200,000 each automaker.
      (This would eliminate the massive $7500 competitive disadvantage that Tesla and GM will find themselves in after they exhaust their credits, while also pleasing environmentalists who want to reward rather than punish the automakers who were most committed to EVs from early on, and also while pleasing those that want to support US companies and US manufacturing vs foreign, like Trump.)
    2. The total number of credits are reduced by 30%. (Or whatever. Pick your number.)
      (This would reduce the lifetime cost of the program and please fiscal conservatives and deficit hawks and help get Republican support.)
     
    • Like x 1
  8. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2013
    Messages:
    4,771
    Location:
    Delaware
    I'd like to see the single pool, but given the new Congress and Administration, not cancelling the tax credit immediately constitutes a significant victory. :(
     
    • Like x 2
  9. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2013
    Messages:
    4,771
    Location:
    Delaware
    The opposite might actually be wiser. If they concentrate on foreign production for a little while as they get the kinks in the supply chain and production line sorted out, then they could rush a lot more U.S. deliveries through during the two full rebate unlimited number quarters they have.

    I have no reason to expect they are planning on doing this, though Elon did say they would try to manage the 200k so it fell at the beginning of the quarter to extend the numbers.
     
  10. macpacheco

    macpacheco Member

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2014
    Messages:
    439
    Location:
    Brazil
    Saghost, I wish I could be more optimistic, but you're right on the money. We can keep dreaming that things wont change but it likely will. Tesla needs to shape up and be prepared to loose all incentives, even ZEV credits.
    But I think Tesla is ready. If they can go through another 50% year growth, they will have the cash flow to continue their plans even with a very hostile Federal administration. At the same time... It might be the reason for Tesla to make its first nationwide TV ad campaign, explaining the population that its one of the most truly American brands that import very little and has been creating mostly american jobs for a decade, and cry foul of US states that have been hostile to Tesla direct sales, explaining that there is no fundamental reason the dealership model must be universal except for dealership interests.
    Tesla must make the Model 3 a reality and complete the Giga Factory. Once they get there, they will be unstoppable.
     
  11. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2016
    Messages:
    1,317
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
    Elon is in position to sell directly into the ears of President Trump.

    This is good for the future of Tesla and EV?
     
  12. Max*

    Max* Not Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2015
    Messages:
    6,307
    Location:
    NoVa
    IIRC It was the Bush administration who put the EV tax credit in place. I wouldn't blame the Republicans for everything.
     
    • Like x 3
  13. pinski

    pinski Not Ludicrous

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    135
    Location:
    Greensboro, NC
    This is actually brilliant and would mostly benefit American companies as a bi-product (GM and Tesla). Win-win-win for this administration.
     
    • Like x 1
  14. dsvick

    dsvick Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2016
    Messages:
    1,385
    Location:
    NE Ohio
    Decent article and it should give a lot of reservation holders hope (depending on when they reserved) of getting, if not the full, then at least a partial credit.

    I do have two issues with the article, first, they referred to it as a rebate and it isn't, it's a tax credit. No one is going to get $7,500 taken off the cost of their car, they'll get it back when they file their taxes for the tax year that they received their car in (assuming they qualify).

    Secondly, they make it sound as if a car only counts towards the 200,000 if the credit is taken for it. That's not true, the wording of the IRS document (Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D)) says "The credit begins to phase out for a manufacturer’s vehicles when at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles have been sold for use in the United States...", so as soon as number 200,000 is sold that's it, not whether or not everyone that can actually applies for the credit.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  15. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2013
    Messages:
    4,771
    Location:
    Delaware
    ZEV credits come from CARB rules, and there's nothing the federal government can do directly to help or hurt them. OTOH, they seem to be steadily decreasing in value as more companies start selling home grown EVs in CARB states.
     
  16. S3XY

    S3XY Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2015
    Messages:
    725
    Location:
    Buffalo, NY
    Yeah, they had me wondering about that second one. I'd never heard it before. Now I know why. It isn't right.
     
  17. jsmay311

    jsmay311 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2016
    Messages:
    222
    Location:
    Chicago suburbs
    I wouldn't call that "recalling correctly", exactly. ;) At least, that's far from the full picture.

    The law that put the original (much more limited) EV tax credit into place was passed by a Democratic-led House and Senate in 2008 and bundled with the TARP bill (along with a tax cut bill and a bunch of other stuff), which was a "must sign" piece of legislation that Bush had virtually no choice but to sign into law in October 2008 as the economy was in free-fall.

    Public Law 110-343 - Wikipedia

    Then in 2009, Obama and the Dems greatly expanded the number of credits (from 250,000 total credits to 200,000 per automaker) as part of the stimulus bill. (That's something like a 10-fold increase.)

    Key takeaway: Bush and congressional Republicans almost certainly didn't support it and would not have signed the EV tax credit into law had it not been bundled by the Dems with TARP. And even then the program signed by Bush in 2008 was far smaller than the 2009 expansion signed by Obama.
     
    • Informative x 2
  18. McRat

    McRat Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2016
    Messages:
    4,068
    Location:
    Norco, CA
    Assuming the goal of the next 4 years is to boost the domestic manufacturing sector:

    We should allow the EV credit program to continue until Ford hits 200,000. While Tesla and GM will be in the declining credit phase, this will maximize the benefit to domestic production.

    Once Ford hits the decline, the law is removed and replaced with a law that only allows US companies to participate. Draconian, but it's a war we are about to lose in less than 5 years.

    If we do not move to protect the domestic EV producers against Chinese government-assisted producers, we are taking a huge risk. It would be wise of the Chinese to dump EVs into the American market to halt US production, then adjust pricing afterwards. Right now, China is busy making EVs for China, and demand outstrips supply. Once supply passes demand, it will end up in first Europe, then the USA.
     
  19. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2016
    Messages:
    1,994
    Location:
    NorCal
    OR, the legacy US ICE manufacturers could learn from the Chinese companies (and Tesla) and get serious about making the investments needed to make the transition to high volume BEV production.

    If not, they could find themselves in the dustbin of history.
     
  20. McRat

    McRat Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2016
    Messages:
    4,068
    Location:
    Norco, CA
    China has one of the most protected auto industries in the world, and they do not recognize intellectual property. Most of their technology is copied from the west, legally or illegally, it does not matter to them.

    Sadly, US companies do not really have anybody to steal technology from. Nor would the Chinese restrictions and assistance to bolster their factories be applicable.
     

Share This Page