alseTrick
Active Member
No.
I imagine Musk couldn't convince Drumpf of doing that, nor do I think Musk will try. He needs to fight "battles" he can win.
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No.
I imagine Musk couldn't convince Drumpf of doing that, nor do I think Musk will try. He needs to fight "battles" he can win.
alseTrick
Active Member
So maybe only deliver the 3 to employees (to ensure quality control guinea pigs and proximity to the factory remain) before switching to left-hand drive markets through mid/late-2018 when Tesla hits the 200k US threshold? Then potentially pump out 75-100k/quarter in late 2018/early 2019 to get all early US reservation holders the full discount? Might work.
I'd be fine waiting an additional 6 months if it means I saved an additional $3,750 or more. Those in-person and first day reservees would undoubtedly have a conniption fit though.
MiamiNole
Member
??? How much of the world do you think drives on the left-side? Certainly not Europe outside of UK/Ireland! By the time Tesla actually "switches" to left-hand drive markets, we that reserved here stateside will probably all have our Model 3s!
alseTrick
Active Member
??? How much of the world do you think drives on the left-side? Certainly not Europe outside of UK/Ireland! By the time Tesla actually "switches" to left-hand drive markets, we that reserved here stateside will probably all have our Model 3s!
I don't know, 1/4 or so?
UK, Ireland, Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand are all markets with a Tesla presence.
If that's 25k or so, that might help to get the 3's ramp up to a level where more US-destination 3's can be made per quarter than otherwise.
That was, afterall, the whole point of that discussion.
model3fan
Member
I'm trying to update my incentives page - anyone know if there are any updated estimates on US deliveries beyond 100k line was crossed in January? paging @dhanson865 who provided some great posts before (linked to on my page)
Incentives
Incentives
I'm not as sure. It's both Tesla and GM who need the cap adjusted. Both are American employers.
We will see. I still think it was short-sighted for Tesla Motors to remove their influence from the Presidential industrial panel. Sure it appeased a large group of people who can only think about things in social justice terms, not EV terms. But oddly enough EVs don't seem to care who is driving one.
??? How much of the world do you think drives on the left-side? Certainly not Europe outside of UK/Ireland! By the time Tesla actually "switches" to left-hand drive markets, we that reserved here stateside will probably all have our Model 3s!
LHD means steering wheel on the left, driving on the right side of the road - which is mainland Europe, mainland China, the U.S. - most of the automotive market.
Basically, everywhere the Model T reached before their laws were fully developed.
They quit because it turned out that their presence meant little and Elon felt he was just wasting his time. Most of the industry giants on that advisory group believe in climate change and probably lobbied to remain in the Paris Climate Accords. We all know what happened next. The POTUS only values the opinion of a tiny handful of individuals, mainly himself.
Furthermore, I highly doubt there will be any serious effort to increase the cap for the subsidies. I bet GM would love to see the subsidies expire so their EV can be even more unattractive and easier to push people towards SUVs and pickup trucks. The current party in power express a strong disdain for evidence-based science, much less climate change. The conversation about subsidies is being poisoned by extreme libertarian groups like the Koch Brothers - instead of incentives for clean energy, its being framed as giving subsidies for rich people to buy their expensive electric cars and solar panels.
Foxhound199
Member
Yes, how incredibly short sighted to take a stand on things like climate change and the state of the environment for future generations when there's next quarter's profitability numbers to think about.
Lack of communication seldom succeeds. Try it in a marriage, raising kids, or in a business and observe what happens.
Communication becomes more and more critical as the stakes grow, and the positions diverge.
Wearing earplugs while screaming into the wind in a cow pasture might make you feel better, but the cows probably won't be convinced of your point. Communicating by both listening and talking to people is more likely to be effective.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I use the insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ for continuity.
to update the current totals at end of 2015 + partial 2017 would be
US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 65,414 (25,914 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 112,533 (28,896 Model S and 18,223 Model X = 47,119 for 2016 + prior years)
2017 Jun 132,673 (11,195 Model S and 8,945 Model X, and 0 Model 3 = 20,140 for Jan-Jun 2017 + prior years)
Note I didn't add any Model 3 deliveries in because those happened in July and I don't have the July numbers for S and X yet. Presumably they'll beat the 45,000 US mark with Model 3 taking up the slack where S/X are selling slower in 2017.
With that in mind I'd see end of 2017 around ~160,000 and the 200,000 mark hitting somewhere in 2018, maybe 2Q 2018? Assuming I didn't screw up the math there we'd have
Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit
Q2 2018 Full amount
Q3 2018 Full amount
Q4 2018 50% of full amount
Q1 2019 50% of full amount
Q2 2019 25% of full amount
Q3 2019 25% of full amount
Q4 2019 No credit
Which means all the people getting that extended range battery for $9000 before the $7500 credit gets cut in half are getting a $3750 discount on taking the forced upgrade if they want it quick.
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Foxhound199
Member
Elon's a busy man who has many interests competing for his time. I thought it was great he was trying to advise the president in this capacity. But if he began feeling that this was not a productive use of his time, I'm not going to question that decision. I would hope that the administration looks at the prospect of extending credits objectively and in terms of what's best for American businesses and not to be motivated by petty retribution for minor perceived slights, but honestly who am I kidding?
chronopc
Active Member
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