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Tesla replacing ultrasonic sensors with Tesla Vision

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Of course if Tesla moved at the glacial pace of most of car companies it would be relatively easy to keep track. None of what you mentioned bothers me in the slightest since that is typical for a tech company. Or maybe I've gotten used to Tesla "confusion" having followed them every day since 2008.
Or, maybe there is a middle ground between glacial pace and rollercoaster? A space where we still get OTA but those are actual, meaningful updates like fixing the wipers, ability to customize the display, 360 view, more tech-oriented dashboard, etc. vs. hiding the most used options, new farts, Sonic the Hedgehog, disabling the radar, etc. A space where I am not constantly in fear of what is the next crazy and irrelevant update and simply enjoy the awesome EV I have.

I do like my car despite Tesla’s attempts in the opposite direction.
 
Or, maybe there is a middle ground between glacial pace and rollercoaster? A space where we still get OTA but those are actual, meaningful updates like fixing the wipers, ability to customize the display, 360 view, more tech-oriented dashboard, etc. vs. hiding the most used options, new farts, Sonic the Hedgehog, disabling the radar, etc. A space where I am not constantly in fear of what is the next crazy and irrelevant update and simply enjoy the awesome EV I have.

I do like my car despite Tesla’s attempts in the opposite direction.
You certainly do have a point. Since my first Tesla was a very early M3 I'm less likely to complain since the car had very little software. Maybe 20% of what is standard today. The biggest complaint for several months was whether the car came with heated rear seats. People were literally removing the rear seats looking for heating elements. It was nuts. Tesla stayed mum for months and then finally one day a software release included heated rear seat controls.
 
I think I see where the confusion is coming from. I have the FSD package (hence, it is incorrect to say that I do not have FSD) that delivers Autosteer capability. FSD beta (which some people incorrectly shorten to “FSD”) is a very different package that tests more advanced capabilities than Autosteer.
So called Autopilot includes the TACC (via built-in functionality) and, optionally, Autosteer (via the optional FSD).
Incorrect, AP has always included both Autosteer and TACC, even from the earliest AP1. I would know, both because of how long I followed Tesla and because I own a car myself with AP, but not EAP or FSD. It very much has both TACC and Autosteer (no FSD option required). I just used both in the past weekend.

Current Automotive made a handy feature chart:
AP_FSD_Chartv13_07.2021.png


https://www.currentautomotive.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-tesla-autopilot/
Source: Model S Owner's Manual | Tesla

Autosteer (FSD) does steer on few city streets but it gives up at intersections (even though it recognizes traffic lights colors), has no idea about turning lanes (even though I “sees” the arrows), etc. Basically, it is unusable (but not disabled) after it exits the highway.
As above Autosteer is a feature of Autopilot, not exclusive to FSD.

To bring it back to the original point, your statement "Try it in a snowstorm. The FSD refuses to activate but AP works." Should be "Try it in a snowstorm. The Autosteer refuses to activate but TACC works."

The latter makes sense (ACC in general can technically work on radar alone). The former implied Autosteer was active.
 
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I think that's the interesting bottom line: despite stupid fart mode and PB, the overwhelming majority of owner's do like their Teslas.
… despite all efforts of Tesla in the opposite direction. If you run a survey you will find that overwhelming majority buy the car not because of FSD (what we have in production is average nowadays; beta is still a promise only), silly UI or luxury (it is a pretty average car, definitely not luxury) but because it is a great EV.

As I mentioned before, with the obsession about AI Tesla is losing focus from what is important - great service, solid features, high quality. This is all because of the unproven idea that the car will become an asset in the shared economy. Two problems with that - the AI approach is unproven and it started to affect the regular EV experience; and the whole shared economy model is very much questionable itself. Yes, we have AirBnB, ZipCar, Uber, etc. but people still want to own and not share things. Just do a poll and see how many people use their Teslas to drive for Uber or Lyft, especially the Model S/X.

That obsession builds resentment. If the only thing holding their customers is the greatest EV once a competitor, who already has a better quality, luxurious car, better service (there are quite a few of those) comes with the same level EV then people will start switching. AI will be a very, very insignificant factor for the majority of them.

I am writing this not because I hate Tesla; just the opposite. I love what they did and admire EM for disrupting the market in the positive direction. But, for Tesla’s sake, I think it is time for a different type of leadership. He should go and do what he could do best - focus on the next disruption with AI (for example) - and let seasonal leaders take Tesla to the next level.
 
… despite all efforts of Tesla in the opposite direction. If you run a survey you will find that overwhelming majority buy the car not because of FSD (what we have in production is average nowadays; beta is still a promise only), silly UI or luxury (it is a pretty average car, definitely not luxury) but because it is a great EV.

As I mentioned before, with the obsession about AI Tesla is losing focus from what is important - great service, solid features, high quality. This is all because of the unproven idea that the car will become an asset in the shared economy. Two problems with that - the AI approach is unproven and it started to affect the regular EV experience; and the whole shared economy model is very much questionable itself. Yes, we have AirBnB, ZipCar, Uber, etc. but people still want to own and not share things. Just do a poll and see how many people use their Teslas to drive for Uber or Lyft, especially the Model S/X.

That obsession builds resentment. If the only thing holding their customers is the greatest EV once a competitor, who already has a better quality, luxurious car, better service (there are quite a few of those) comes with the same level EV then people will start switching. AI will be a very, very insignificant factor for the majority of them.

I am writing this not because I hate Tesla; just the opposite. I love what they did and admire EM for disrupting the market in the positive direction. But, for Tesla’s sake, I think it is time for a different type of leadership. He should go and do what he could do best - focus on the next disruption with AI (for example) - and let seasonal leaders take Tesla to the next level.
I won't be renting mine out anytime soon!
 
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How do you reconcile the table above (thanks for posting it!) with Tesla’s manual Model S Owner's Manual | Tesla ?
According to the manual, Autosteer is a convenience feature of Autopilot.
What is inconsistent about that statement and that chart? The chart shows Autosteer is included with Autopilot, which was my main point. To be clear, my main issue was that you were implying Autosteer was linked to FSD, and TACC was linked to AP, when both Autosteer and TACC is linked to AP. Autosteer is not exclusive to FSD.
 
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Not that it is inconsistent. Looking at the table you shared, I am trying to distill from the manual what is the additional functionality that FSD gives you. It is unclear. I am trying to get “an official” version of the table, I guess.
 
Not that it is inconsistent. Looking at the table you shared, I am trying to distill from the manual what is the additional functionality that FSD gives you. It is unclear. I am trying to get “an official” version of the table, I guess.
The manual does not break down the option package features. Tesla's support page does however (for the latest version):

Autopilot​

Autopilot includes the following functionality and features:

  • Traffic-Aware Cruise Control: Matches the speed of your car to that of the surrounding traffic
  • Autosteer: Assists in steering within a clearly marked lane, and uses traffic-aware cruise control

Enhanced Autopilot​

In addition to the functionality and features of Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot also includes:

  • Navigate on Autopilot: Actively guides your car from a highway’s on-ramp to off-ramp, including suggesting lane changes, navigating interchanges, automatically engaging the turn signal and taking the correct exit.
  • Auto Lane Change: Assists in moving to an adjacent lane on the highway when Autosteer is engaged.
  • Autopark: Helps automatically parallel or perpendicular park your car, with a single touch.
  • Summon: Moves your car in and out of a tight space using the mobile app or key.
  • Smart Summon: Your car will navigate more complex environments and parking spaces, maneuvering around objects as necessary to come find you in a parking lot.

Full Self-Driving Capability​

In addition to the functionality and features of Autopilot and Enhanced Autopilot, Full Self-Driving Capability also includes:

  • Traffic and Stop Sign Control (Beta): Identifies stop signs and traffic lights and automatically slows your car to a stop on approach, with your active supervision
  • Upcoming:
  • Autosteer on city streets
Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability
 
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2022.40.4 was rumored to use AP distance numbers to replace USS data (in cars without USS). But no one has reported this visible in UI yet (nor is it mentioned in release notes).

It’s my pet hate - people predicting or just lying saying these things without real knowledge. Some half the time are right, half the time they’re wrong, but do they care if they get clicks and ad revenue?
 
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It’s my pet hate - people predicting or just lying saying these things without real knowledge. Some half the time are right, half the time they’re wrong, but do they care if they get clicks and ad revenue?
green is fairly well known in the community and gets his data from the actual code. What he sees may not be reflected yet in the UI in the given update (due to the nature of how he extracts it), but most of the time the things he sees eventually gets released. You can see his twitter feed, the stuff he posts is generally accurate about what is in a given update (even if release notes don't show it yet).

There are other articles that made it seem more than what he actually wrote (and without the caveats mentioned), but that is a problem with other content generators, not necessarily him.

Further down he posted a bit more details what he saw in the code:
 
green is fairly well known in the community and gets his data from the actual code. What he sees may not be reflected yet in the UI in the given update (due to the nature of how he extracts it), but most of the time the things he sees eventually gets released. You can see his twitter feed, the stuff he posts is generally accurate about what is in a given update (even if release notes don't show it yet).

There are other articles that made it seem more than what he actually wrote (and without the caveats mentioned), but that is a problem with other content generators, not necessarily him.

Further down he posted a bit more details what he saw in the code:
It’s not rocket science to say Tesla Vision will replace USS as that’s exactly what Tesla have said. It’s therefore not news to report that, but if your timing is completely off then you’re spamming based on guess work

Tesla manages FSD from coast to coast in 2022.44 is my prediction

Am I as good as him if they do it in a years time and not in 2022.44?
 
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It’s not rocket science to say Tesla Vision will replace USS as that’s exactly what Tesla have said. It’s therefore not news to report that, but if your timing is completely off then you’re spamming based on guess work

Tesla manages FSD from coast to coast in 2022.44 is my prediction

Am I as good as him if they do it in a years time and not in 2022.44?
With respect, @stopcrazypp is trying to tell you that the information from green is not spam or random guesswork. To continue to imply such is doing a bigger disservice to the readers. My impression is that green has a talent based hobby of looking into Tesla's code and often reporting on interesting things he finds in there. I'm sure there are many others here who know more about his history than I, but I know enough to rise in protest if you're suggesting he's just making things up.

I think sometimes it's hard for him to tell what is actually deployed, ie executing and contributing to real-time operational performance of the car. In other words, he may find something that is in there being evaluated in shadow mode, or code that was compiled into the release but not being used quite yet and that may or may not survive future updates.

However with those disclaimers made, it is unfair and unwise to dismiss his contributions as nothing more than random speculation that any of us might dream up ourselves, based on no such data from the Tesla computer.
 
It’s not rocket science to say Tesla Vision will replace USS as that’s exactly what Tesla have said. It’s therefore not news to report that, but if your timing is completely off then you’re spamming based on guess work

Tesla manages FSD from coast to coast in 2022.44 is my prediction

Am I as good as him if they do it in a years time and not in 2022.44?
Green did not simply speculate on Vision replacing USS, he is much more specific. He says he sees in the code evidence of Tesla taking AP distance code (but not specifically directly Occupancy Network) as a drop in replacement of USS. Basically it will format the data to simulate the existing locations of the USS hardware. That is a very specific implementation detail you can't just guess. It also shows at least Tesla is making concrete steps in implementing a replacement.

Your example is not anywhere as specific and is not informed by an actual look at Tesla code. So your example is pure speculation, while his is not. Again keeping in mind the caveats of how he extracted the code snippets. @JHCCAZ explained it better, but as someone with a software background, I understand clearly the limitations and why sometimes the things green finds does not show up in the UI or in the actual executing features.