edit: i cannot update my topic title, i see that i misspelled something. English is not my native language. 3rd or 4th i think. 
I live in the Netherlands, And I wanted to know how many models 3 tesla will properly sale in the first year.
First Some background information about The Netherlands and cars.
Most of the cars in the netherlands are small because of all the taxes they have.
21% BTW + (only for ICE: 350 euro + 1777 euro for a benzine car that has 102gram CO2 exhaust)
and 756 euro taxes every year to have the vehicle on your name based on the weight and the fuel) this example is a 1351 - 1450kg car.
I personal have Opel corsa Diesel: that is 1056 euro for a year. (Diesel and 1100 kg)
Elektric cars are free from the year taxes for the moment till 2020.
So buying and having a car in the netherlands can be a lot more expensive than in other regions in the world.
Lets start at the best selling cars in the netherlands in the first 3 months of 2016 and the numbers sold.
NISSAN QASHQAI 881
FORD FIESTA 868
PEUGEOT 208 866
PEUGEOT 108 804
OPEL CORSA 730
OPEL KARL 713
VW GOLF 622
FIAT 500 542
OPEL MOKKA 537
TOYOTA YARIS 533
OPEL ASTRA 529
VW UP! 488
VW PASSAT 467
RENAULT CAPTUR 462
TOYOTA AYGO 457
RENAULT CLIO 453
BMW 3-SERIE 448
VW POLO 440
AUDI A4 426
FORD FOCUS 383
MINI MINI 381
TESLA MODEL S 371
TESLA 371
Lets go to carcompanies that sells less than 371 cars in the first 3 months.
DACIA 315
HONDA 194
SMART 167
LAND ROVER 148
DS 142
JAGUAR 85
JEEP 62
LEXUS 49
INFINITI 12
LANCIA 7
MASERATI 5
MORGAN 4
BENTLEY 3
ROLLS-ROYCE 2
FERRARI 1
ASTON MARTIN 1
LAMBORGHINI 1
So Tesla is already doing much better than all this companies with only 1 model on the market right now (X is still not available here). And tesla is the most expensive car in the top.
The website Tesla Model 3 - Estimating the total reservations per country predict at this moment 5181 reservations in the netherlands.
If those are all sold in 1 year. with a average of 1295 per 3 months.....
That would be awesome: That is 50% more than the best selling car at this moment!.
But the most new cars are company / lease cars here. because if you let you boss pay your car you can do that with bruto income before taxes (40% - 50%). On that moment it is not your car but you can drive it like it is your own. And you pay a little tax for income in nature (21%), but for elektric cars this is (4%).
All those tax diffences makes that the Model 3 will be in the same price classe as: Ford Fiesta, Opel Corsa, VW polo, Renault CLIO. but with some performens like the BMW 3 serie?
And company cars will not be bought 4 years before delivery. but only when the price is 100% sure. so we dont see them now in the 5181 reservations.
So which cars are safe in the top selling cars?
NISSAN QASHQAI (its a SUV so its a different car)
PEUGEOT 108 (its still cheaper)
OPEL KARL 713 (its still cheaper)
FIAT 500 542 (its still cheaper)
TOYOTA YARIS 533 (its still cheaper)
VW UP! 488 (its still cheaper)
TOYOTA AYGO 457 (its still cheaper)
So the only cars that will survive in will be the very cheap cars, if you go a little but more expensive, the Tesla will be there in the same price as the other verhicles.
So if a do a small estamation: 5181 private cars reserved now.
And we multiply that by 4 (company cars and buyers that dont want to wait 4 years).
Tesla will sell over 20.000 Model 3's in a year in the netherlands. (all cars together are 120.000 cars a year).
So 16% of the cars sold in the netherlands will be a tesla!.
Best sold brand is now Opel with 12500 cars a year.
And dont forget, even with the 5000 reservations at this time, it will be the best selling model for a year!.
there is 1 downside at this story, to much the same cars on the road.
And i don't know why i started this post !
I live in the Netherlands, And I wanted to know how many models 3 tesla will properly sale in the first year.
First Some background information about The Netherlands and cars.
Most of the cars in the netherlands are small because of all the taxes they have.
21% BTW + (only for ICE: 350 euro + 1777 euro for a benzine car that has 102gram CO2 exhaust)
and 756 euro taxes every year to have the vehicle on your name based on the weight and the fuel) this example is a 1351 - 1450kg car.
I personal have Opel corsa Diesel: that is 1056 euro for a year. (Diesel and 1100 kg)
Elektric cars are free from the year taxes for the moment till 2020.
So buying and having a car in the netherlands can be a lot more expensive than in other regions in the world.
Lets start at the best selling cars in the netherlands in the first 3 months of 2016 and the numbers sold.
NISSAN QASHQAI 881
FORD FIESTA 868
PEUGEOT 208 866
PEUGEOT 108 804
OPEL CORSA 730
OPEL KARL 713
VW GOLF 622
FIAT 500 542
OPEL MOKKA 537
TOYOTA YARIS 533
OPEL ASTRA 529
VW UP! 488
VW PASSAT 467
RENAULT CAPTUR 462
TOYOTA AYGO 457
RENAULT CLIO 453
BMW 3-SERIE 448
VW POLO 440
AUDI A4 426
FORD FOCUS 383
MINI MINI 381
TESLA MODEL S 371
TESLA 371
Lets go to carcompanies that sells less than 371 cars in the first 3 months.
DACIA 315
HONDA 194
SMART 167
LAND ROVER 148
DS 142
JAGUAR 85
JEEP 62
LEXUS 49
INFINITI 12
LANCIA 7
MASERATI 5
MORGAN 4
BENTLEY 3
ROLLS-ROYCE 2
FERRARI 1
ASTON MARTIN 1
LAMBORGHINI 1
So Tesla is already doing much better than all this companies with only 1 model on the market right now (X is still not available here). And tesla is the most expensive car in the top
.The website Tesla Model 3 - Estimating the total reservations per country predict at this moment 5181 reservations in the netherlands.
If those are all sold in 1 year. with a average of 1295 per 3 months.....
That would be awesome: That is 50% more than the best selling car at this moment!.
But the most new cars are company / lease cars here. because if you let you boss pay your car you can do that with bruto income before taxes (40% - 50%). On that moment it is not your car but you can drive it like it is your own. And you pay a little tax for income in nature (21%), but for elektric cars this is (4%).
All those tax diffences makes that the Model 3 will be in the same price classe as: Ford Fiesta, Opel Corsa, VW polo, Renault CLIO. but with some performens like the BMW 3 serie?
And company cars will not be bought 4 years before delivery. but only when the price is 100% sure. so we dont see them now in the 5181 reservations.
So which cars are safe in the top selling cars?
NISSAN QASHQAI (its a SUV so its a different car)
PEUGEOT 108 (its still cheaper)
OPEL KARL 713 (its still cheaper)
FIAT 500 542 (its still cheaper)
TOYOTA YARIS 533 (its still cheaper)
VW UP! 488 (its still cheaper)
TOYOTA AYGO 457 (its still cheaper)
So the only cars that will survive in will be the very cheap cars, if you go a little but more expensive, the Tesla will be there in the same price as the other verhicles.
So if a do a small estamation: 5181 private cars reserved now.
And we multiply that by 4 (company cars and buyers that dont want to wait 4 years).
Tesla will sell over 20.000 Model 3's in a year in the netherlands. (all cars together are 120.000 cars a year).
So 16% of the cars sold in the netherlands will be a tesla!.
Best sold brand is now Opel with 12500 cars a year.
And dont forget, even with the 5000 reservations at this time, it will be the best selling model for a year!.
there is 1 downside at this story, to much the same cars on the road.
And i don't know why i started this post !
