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Tesla sales rep said MY with 4680 will NOT have longer range

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Elon often notes the trade off of increasing range by adding batteries. He perfers a balanced approach where fewer batteries can mean lower weight which provides additional range. While larger battery packs provide additional range, they cost more, degrade handling/braking, wear tires faster etc.

Best to use as few batteries as possible to provide responsible range.
 
I agree with those that have said no one knows anything and these are all best case scenarios.

My comments below come from having worked on many mass production manufacturing programs and knowledge of concept—> pilot —> mass production.

Personally I don’t think the structural pack can simply be reduced in cell count without compromising the structural integrity and crash worthiness Tesla is looking for. The structure would have been designed and tested for a specific cell count to provide the balance, handling, and crash protection for structural integrity as a structural pack especially if the cells are acting as a cross car beam. Reducing cells and replacing with epoxy would drive the mechanical engineers to have to redesign and then retest all of their prototypes, not including their crash simulations.

In addition their thermal team would need to prepare and engineer the car both hardware and software for a different cell count and thermal capabilities during supercharging or other cold/hot conditions. It’s not always as simple as writing code to handle it.

While Tesla does have an agile methodology of implementing changes, reducing tens to hundreds of cells would mean that a lot of prototypes, pilots, tooling, jigs, and other things would need to be rethought not including the documentation aspects on the cell-to-pack and assembly line.

I hope Tesla may have a way out of using all the cells of the original or most recent design, but at this point I think it’s too far past that. Approvals, certifications and other testing/requirements have been completed for months to get this out the door and would cause an issue if those had to be redone.

April is when the Austin cell line is supposed to come online and Tesla has already stated 4680s are not the constraint, chips are.
 
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I agree with those that have said no one knows anything and these are all best case scenarios.

My comments below come from having worked on many mass production manufacturing programs and knowledge of concept—> pilot —> mass production.

Personally I don’t think the structural pack can simply be reduced in cell count without compromising the structural integrity and crash worthiness Tesla is looking for. The structure would have been designed and tested for a specific cell count to provide the balance, handling, and crash protection for structural integrity as a structural pack especially if the cells are acting as a cross car beam. Reducing cells and replacing with epoxy would drive the mechanical engineers to have to redesign and then retest all of their prototypes, not including their crash simulations.

In addition their thermal team would need to prepare and engineer the car both hardware and software for a different cell count and thermal capabilities during supercharging or other cold/hot conditions. It’s not always as simple as writing code to handle it.

While Tesla does have an agile methodology of implementing changes, reducing tens to hundreds of cells would mean that a lot of prototypes, pilots, tooling, jigs, and other things would need to be rethought not including the documentation aspects on the cell-to-pack and assembly line.

I hope Tesla may have a way out of using all the cells of the original or most recent design, but at this point I think it’s too far past that. Approvals, certifications and other testing/requirements have been completed for months to get this out the door and would cause an issue if those had to be redone.

April is when the Austin cell line is supposed to come online and Tesla has already stated 4680s are not the constraint, chips are.

I have no idea if they plan for it, but empty 4680 cells would be pretty trivial to create and use for structure if desired.
 
It seems simplest and smart for Tesla to roll the 4680 initially with same-ish range, allowing them to get both factories migrated and ramped onto the new pack technology while keeping the order sheet simple.

Yes, that likely means higher profit margins on the 4680's, but you could argue that goes towards paying for all those new battery assembly lines.

And yes, once fully on 4680 and having plenty of field experience, they could push the range up a ways (or reduce costs further by getting existing-level range from 4680 packs using less-efficient but cheaper chemistry)
Or they could send them out with software locked 4680 packs to equal the 2170 range.
 
I think that if you are waiting for the very latest technology before purchasing...you are making a big mistake...like buying a computer in the nineties...if you don’t pull the trigger you will never get one.
But...those who already own Teslas and are waiting for an upgrade are geniuses....you get all the driving pleasure of a Tesla while having the luxury of waiting for as long as it takes for your ‘perfect’ Tesla to be born..
 
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...there is precedent for software-limited packs
But not enough 4680's to implement it at present.
The new battery remains precious and while supply long term isn't at issue, near term it is. Tesla-speak for 'meets production plans' doesn't mean wish fulfillment.
Tesla has no incentive to fully populate the 4680 battery pack and software-limit the useage, when they can sell all they can make with a 82kWh 2170 pack.
There's also no sizeable competition for at least another year or more.

An inert cell can be substituted for live ones, meet all structural, integrity, and performance metrics and certifications, and meet Tesla's production needs.
So a reduced-capacity 4680 battery pack that roughly matches the current 2170 pack Ah rating is achieveable, conserves 4680 availability, and meets production needs.

I could see Tesla introducing a new MY variant with a more fully populated 4680 battery pack and it's increased range at some point.
But that would overlap with the range of, and potentially crush sales of, the MX, while not increasing the capacity to make MY cars. So it costs their bottom line plenty.
As with Tesla - who knows? Only Tesla....the blogs are just blogs.
 
Seems like Austin-made cars will get bi-directional capabilities (specifically, grid support) too. Elon “liked” this tweet. While not fool-proof (as emphasis of the tweet seems to be on the ERCOT demonstration), an Elon “like” may indicate there is some truth to this claim.

Also, given that the tweet suggests that Berlin-made cars will also be able to provide grid support, it seems like the capability may not be limited to just 4680 batteries since Berlin will start off using 2170s.

91C8DA71-EC2B-4A45-A68D-28C21B7395EF.png
 
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I would imagine once all factories are 4680 for Y range will go up due to competition. Pressure will come to Tesla from Kia/Hyundai, Porsche/Audi/VW, etc.
They will be (or in some cases are) producing 300+ cars. I think Tesla wants to own the range (at least until it becomes absurd) so they will be willing to eat into their margins a bit.
At the point of 4680 convergence across factories, I’d expect a 20% bump for Y (400) and YP and also new Y XLR models (or options) with 50% bump (500). I hope I’m being conservative even though I know this will drop my current Y’s value
 
I would imagine once all factories are 4680 for Y range will go up due to competition. Pressure will come to Tesla from Kia/Hyundai, Porsche/Audi/VW, etc.
They will be (or in some cases are) producing 300+ cars. I think Tesla wants to own the range (at least until it becomes absurd) so they will be willing to eat into their margins a bit.
At the point of 4680 convergence across factories, I’d expect a 20% bump for Y (400) and YP and also new Y XLR models (or options) with 50% bump (500). I hope I’m being conservative even though I know this will drop my current Y’s value
With the rise in gasoline prices, Tesla has more orders than they can fulfill for a year, and they've raised prices.
With the decline of industry supplies, Tesla competitors can't deliver much volume.

Consequently any increase in range that might be offered by Tesla is likely put off for at least a year, maybe more.
 
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I would imagine once all factories are 4680 for Y range will go up due to competition. Pressure will come to Tesla from Kia/Hyundai, Porsche/Audi/VW, etc.
They will be (or in some cases are) producing 300+ cars. I think Tesla wants to own the range (at least until it becomes absurd) so they will be willing to eat into their margins a bit.
At the point of 4680 convergence across factories, I’d expect a 20% bump for Y (400) and YP and also new Y XLR models (or options) with 50% bump (500). I hope I’m being conservative even though I know this will drop my current Y’s value
For this to even have a remote chance of coming to fruition, model X and S would also have to increase to 500mile mark to make their price delta continually worth it.

I would say Tesla will never make their ‘low end’ models get to 400miles unless battery tech pricing falls. With global shortages in commodities and metals, don’t see this happening for some time. Best we can hope for is perhaps a 5-7% bump in keeping with weight savings on structural packs.
 
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I'm currently a 21 m3P owner. I'm definitely waiting for the 4680 equipped performance Y. Imo, the biggest advantage at the time of release will the ability to provide a greater range in cold northern climates. As it sits right, in winter months, there have been times I can only get 120-130 miles from 90% charge. If the 4680 can get me at least 230 that's a major selling point for me.
Does the m3P have a "battery warming" charge mode? I think it does? Anyway, warm up the battery so that when you leave in the morning, it's timed to have the pack warmed up? That would probably extend your winter range a great deal - at least, the first half of your trip you would probably get full performance out of your battery pack. The heating is performed while plugged into the wall of your garage. I don't even know I own an m3P but I live in CA and have never looked for the feature ... If it's not there, tweet it to musk?
 
With the rise in gasoline prices, Tesla has more orders than they can fulfill for a year, and they've raised prices.
With the decline of industry supplies, Tesla competitors can't deliver much volume.

Consequently any increase in range that might be offered by Tesla is likely put off for at least a year, maybe more.
I got my M3 and my family a MY right before everything went absolutely crazy with prices and gasoline. So glad we did.
 
I would imagine once all factories are 4680 for Y range will go up due to competition. Pressure will come to Tesla from Kia/Hyundai, Porsche/Audi/VW, etc.
They will be (or in some cases are) producing 300+ cars. I think Tesla wants to own the range (at least until it becomes absurd) so they will be willing to eat into their margins a bit.
At the point of 4680 convergence across factories, I’d expect a 20% bump for Y (400) and YP and also new Y XLR models (or options) with 50% bump (500). I hope I’m being conservative even though I know this will drop my current Y’s value
I agree.
But not on "they will be willing to eat into their margins a bit".

Who said that higher range should come for free? :)
There are a lot of people, also in this forum, saying that they are ready to pay for higher range.

If margins will reduce, it is because of competition, not because some cars are offered also with higher range.

I'd rather bet the opposite: people willing higher range are probably ready to pay a disproportioned higher price - as it happens with luxury gadgets.
 
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I agree.
But not on "they will be willing to eat into their margins a bit".

Who said that higher range should come for free? :)
There are a lot of people, also in this forum, saying that they are ready to pay for higher range.

If margins will reduce, it is because of competition, not because some cars are offered also with higher range.

I'd rather bet the opposite: people willing higher range are probably ready to pay a disproportioned higher price - as it happens with luxury gadgets.
Tesla will not give away range for free.
There's no competition that can deliver EV's with competitive range, in any volume, any time soon.
Further, Elon has stated that Tesla needs to make more profits this year so he can build more factories to swamp the market with product.

Unfortunately, this reality is counter to many wishful thinking posters' dreams.
 
I think that if you are waiting for the very latest technology before purchasing...you are making a big mistake...like buying a computer in the nineties...if you don’t pull the trigger you will never get one.
But...those who already own Teslas and are waiting for an upgrade are geniuses....you get all the driving pleasure of a Tesla while having the luxury of waiting for as long as it takes for your ‘perfect’ Tesla to be born..
Your post reminds me of my dad.
In early 1967 recently being discharged from the US Army, I returned home and my dad was still watching a B&W TV. When I asked him why he hadn't yet purchased a color TV ,he replied that they were not perfected yet even though they were introduced by RCA in 1954. I built him a Heathkit 19" color TV that took me two weeks to put together.
In the early eighties he was debating the purchase of a VCR but passed away before he bought one.
The days of keeping a vehicle for a long period of time are over as the technology is moving so fast. Even my grand-kids are already on their second computers.
 
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4680 battery pack will not increase range that much as the wind and rolling resistance barely changes with a 10 % weight reduction. Acceleration and braking is a different story and that as well as handling will improve.
Well...yes and no. 4680 has an indirect effect, with range managed by the pack energy rating.

Handling and acceleration will definitely improve due to weight reduction and chassis stiffness improvements. Weight is a very large factor here.
Range won't change much, since Tesla won't be giving away range in the absence real competition, which won't come for another year or more.

Range potential will be available for when that competitive need arises. Wind resistance won't change, but Tesla will manage range via the pack energy density.
Until competition comes,, Tesla will build the pack to roughly the current kWh rating (82kWh), and fill out the pack with inert cells, Add more live cells when needed....
Range might increase slightly with the new 4680 pack, but more due to weight reduction than anything else, as the energy density available will be similar to 2170 packs now.
 
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The Model Y will evolve just like the S/X. The range and features on a 2022 S/X are far different than on a 2015 S/X. The same will happen on Y. Already we have interior, processor and 12v battery differences in the Y. In a year or so the 4680 battery will offer more rigidity, lower weight, more efficiency, and eventually more range. When more range will become a reality is the question. Trying to time your purchase to get your desired set of future features is a bit lime trying to time the stock market.
 
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