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Discussion in 'Model 3' started by igotzzoom, May 18, 2016.
Good. Just means I'll get mine sooner.
Tesla says 12,200 Model 3 orders canceled
Works for me. Their impatience means I don't have to be quite so patient!
Why is it clickbait? The facts are interesting and the article is just laying them out.
I hope more people cancel as times goes on, bumping up the people that ordered earlier. But I suspect the ones that stood in line are the die hard fans, and the least likely to cancel.
Once people have held the reservation for a month, most probably will continue to hold it until the car is released. Once people get the point where they need to actually commit to buying a 35K+ car I'm sure they'll get a reasonable amount of cancellations (not that it matters to Tesla, there will be even more people newly interested once it's actually shipping).
Tesla Motors - Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424
On March 31, 2016, we unveiled Model 3, a lower priced sedan designed for the mass market, and as of May 15, 2016, we held deposits from about 373,000 customers who had made reservations for this car. This reservation total is a net number after customer cancelations of about 8,000 and after about 4,200 reservations that we canceled on the belief that they could have been duplicates from speculators. We have obtained this level of reservations without any advertising or paid endorsements, with only a few social media posts leading up to the March 31 st unveiling, without anybody but those who were in attendance on March 31 st having had an opportunity to test drive the car, without yet publicly disclosing numerous features about the car, and with almost no attempt to drive customers to make Model 3 reservations since the week following the March 31 st unveiling. If we wanted to, we believe that we could further increase the number of Model 3 reservations with minimal effort, but believe it is better to guide customers to purchase products currently in production. We are on track to achieve volume production and deliveries of Model 3 in late 2017. Because of the significant demand that we have seen, we have decided to advance our 500,000 total vehicle build plan (combined for Model S, Model X, and Model 3) to 2018, two years earlier than previously planned.
It's clickbait because it lumps cancellations by people together with cancellations by Tesla as being the same thing by the headline. They're two different things.
I suppose, but not really. They are both adjustments to the number of outstanding Model 3 reservations Tesla is holding, which is what counts. Showing that in the text of the article rather than having a long headline is fine. It's not like the number either way is some extraordinary amount.
If they lost 1,333 a week for the first six weeks and that is it, you are right.
If they lose 1,333 a week for the 18 months year, then I disagree.
Where did the 400k number come from?
If they have 373k now and lost/canceled another 12k, that is 385k.
Did they lose another 15k somewhere?
I believe Tesla only ever said they were "approaching" 400k. As far as continuing to lose 1,333 a week we have no evidence of it, and I think that some percentage of cancellations after the huge number of initial reservations is to be expected.
They've always said approaching or almost 400k. I don't think anyone at Tesla ever said it was 400k+ (could be wrong). I think it's close to 400k but really the fact that they are over even 100k is pretty crazy for something that won't be here for 2 years.
Worse than that, once people get the point where they need to commit to buying the car they want, and it will cost them more like $50K, $60K or more, they'll be a few more cancellations guaranteed. I figure that I was around 205,000 to 210,000 in line.
Hoping more news like this will move me into the full Fed. tax credit territory along with the California credit as well. Emphasizing double the MSRP for a nicely configured M3, time will tell.
I'm surprised that after Tesla said "approaching 400k" a month ago, apparently nobody reserved between then and now because even without the cancellations, they're still "approaching 400k". I would've expected almost 500k at this point, where it would level off until part 2 of the reveal.
Many, many under the 400,000th reservation are 'innovators' or 'early adopters' of technology. Many others fall into the 'early majority' and 'late majority' curve and are still standing by the sideline but ready to jump in.
Heartwarming to read that Tesla stomped on some speculators.
'early adopter' yes. 'innovator' of course not.
I suspect many of the first buyers of Tesla vehicles were 'innovators' in their own fields, perhaps innovators in the field of EV technology, sustainable energy, solar and more. The term doesn't apply just to EM and others in his circle.
Statistically insignificant as some kind of representation of the early reservations.
Did a search, I don't think anyone has posted on this yet:
Tesla to Sell $1.4 Billion in Shares for Expanded Production