Tesla says 12,200 Model 3 orders canceled

[Sharkbait]

The Model 3 is going to be one of, if not the most, successful single car introduction in the history of automobile manufacturing. It is forever going to change how people look at EV's. No other company is going to be able to produce as desirable a car, at the same price, for the foreseeable future. By the time they do, Tesla will be so far ahead that there will be no catching up.

Indeed, I hope you are right. If Tesla gets it right, they will be successful as you have predicted. The prototypes look really nice, the strategy to disseminate the first units from where they will be made is excellent. There will be a ton of sales in northern California, where the first units should be on the road for a long as it takes to make sure all quality issues (if any) have been thoroughly resolved.

My 10-year old Lexus LS 430 has not been in the shop for a single, unplanned maintenance issue once, not once, in all that time. That's exactly what I will be expecting from the M3. Unlike other people that may not live close to a Tesla service center, you and I live within 15 miles of one (Burbank and Buena Park). Even then, I don't want to be dealing with maintenance issues.

Quality, if not Customer Service, is paramount here. I suppose that's why EM has his sleeping bag "currently positioned at the end of the Model X production line at Tesla’s Fremont, California factory". I suggest he make plans to move it to the end of the M3 assembly line, wherever production kicks off. QC, QC, and more QC.

I'm sure we all want the Model 3 to be a historic success and rollout, but I for one will wait an additional six months to take delivery if that's what it takes, albeit at the risk of upsetting the shareholders. I'm pushing 70, and If I can wait most everyone else here can wait too.

 

[voip-ninja]

So how much smaller can a 4-door get past the Model 3? Because I wouldn't want a 4-door car smaller than what the Model 3 is going to be. I said Tesla can make a 2-door as its entry-level model. I don't see what's wrong with that line of thinking. Unless, of course, they offer a 30-40 kWh battery as their base Model 3 in a decade or whenever. That would work, too.

The Tesla Model 3 is a mid size sedan similar in size to a BMW 3.

Go look at a BMW model 3 and then go drive around other dealers and observe the numerous smaller 4 door sedans on the market;

Mazda 3
BMW 1 Series
Mercedes CLA
Audi A3
VW Golf
VW Jetta
Toyota Corolla
Honda Cicic
Subaru Imprezza
Chevy Volt
Ford Focus

To name just a few. These cars as mentioned sell in huge numbers, even more so in the Asian and European markets.

There would be an enormous market for a five door hatchback Tesla like the Audi A3 that had similar range but was a few thousand bucks cheaper.

 

[Sharkbait]

I don't think Tesla will necessarily lower the price of the same car. Instead they would keep the price of the car as is and offer more value for it.

Over the decades, that is what I have experienced with the cost of technology. Yes, there is a premium initially, maybe even an outrageous price initially, when some new gadget or technology is released. As you inferred, the price of the latest computer doesn't go down, manufacturers add value, more memory, a faster CPU or solid state storage vs disk. So, there will always be better batteries coming to market, but their price will rise not so much as they are better and more efficient as they will due to inflationary pressures or global crisis within the supply chain.

Keep an eye on the countries with the greatest reserves of lithium until some new element or chemical resource is used to make them; Chile, China, Argentina, Australia, Zimbabwe, Portugal, Brazil, and the U.S. (depending on the source of your information) have the largest reserves.

 

[Genshi]

My 10-year old Lexus LS 430 has not been in the shop for a single, unplanned maintenance issue once, not once, in all that time. That's exactly what I will be expecting from the M3.

Okay see, that right there is simply an expectation grounded outside reality. And I don't mean that to be insulting in any way, truly. I find that extraordinary expectations often are, and they really set one up for disappointment.

From Wikipedia: "As the first model developed by Lexus, the LS 400 debuted in January 1989 with the second generation debuting in November 1994.... The LS 430 debuted in January 2000."

First generation cars will have issues, period. It's the reason Consumer Reports recommends not buying a first generation model unless you understand that particular nuance and can live with it. The likelihood of them being trouble free is simply lower because they ARE a first generation design, and there will be recalls. Heck, look at the Ford Focus when it was released, and that's a company that's been around as long as anyone!

For your particular case, and I say this entirely without malice or judgement, I honestly would suggest waiting until a year or two has gone by to pick up a Model ≡. Consumer reports recommends you not buy a new model car from any manufacturer or even (if I recall correctly) major redesign. Heck, if this were my wife's car I'd recommend the same thing, simply because her tolerance for the nonsense that comes with products that have slight flaws is lower than mine. The Model ≡ could be a game changer, but to truly upend things, it has to not just be great at the outset, but improve on any imperfections in short order. Expecting perfection, or Lexus Year 6 Model LS430 reliability is simply unreasonable on a year zero Model ≡.

Keep an eye on the countries with the greatest reserves of lithium until some new element or chemical resource is used to make them; Chile, China, Argentina, Australia, Zimbabwe, Portugal, Brazil, and the U.S. (depending on the source of your information) have the largest reserves.

Lithium reserves worldwide top countries 2015 | Statistic

Sharkbait is right in this respect - definitely keep an eye on that.

 

[Sharkbait]

For your particular case, and I say this entirely without malice or judgement, I honestly would suggest waiting until a year or two has gone by to pick up a Model ≡.

Hehe,

You either want me to cancel my reservation to gain an edge on delivery or die before I get my car.

I don't have much faith with Consumer Reports. Just like I don't have much faith with American car magazines nominating Jeep as the best car of the year. Don't get me wrong, they're good for a chuckle at times.

With all due respect as well, Tesla by now has been making electric motors and batteries for years, so they do have years of experience with the technology and manufacturing, albeit on a smaller scale than the larger brands. Depending on how much 'star wars' technology is introduced inside the cabin, that it could be a problem. I hope they keep that simple and straight forward as well. For the $70K I expect to spend on my M3, I certainly hope all the lug nuts are tightened up on the wheels before I take delivery.

 

[Genshi]

Hehe, You either want me to cancel my reservation to gain an edge on delivery or die before I get my car.

LOL, son of a b, I didn't think I was being that transparent! Kidding of course, I just honestly don't think the first generation of ANY product is going to be entirely problem free. And I'm completely with you that I hope whatever they have planned for the interior isn't so complex that it adds major points of potential failure.

 

[Sharkbait]

I just honestly don't think the first generation of ANY product is going to be entirely problem free.

What's your complete reservation number? Maybe I can talk you into waiting just a little longer than me......

 

[glenhurst]

The Tesla Model 3 is a mid size sedan similar in size to a BMW 3.

Go look at a BMW model 3 and then go drive around other dealers and observe the numerous smaller 4 door sedans on the market;

Mazda 3
BMW 1 Series
Mercedes CLA
Audi A3
VW Golf
VW Jetta
Toyota Corolla
Honda Cicic
Subaru Imprezza
Chevy Volt
Ford Focus

To name just a few. These cars as mentioned sell in huge numbers, even more so in the Asian and European markets.

There would be an enormous market for a five door hatchback Tesla like the Audi A3 that had similar range but was a few thousand bucks cheaper.

I don't recall if I read it or heard/saw it in a video but EM has mentioned, recently, that there will be a fourth generation car some day that will be even less expensive. No mention of when or for how much. But it's not surprising. Tesla is not trying to position themselves for any particular market segment, they're trying to change the world, and they'll need a less expensive car to do so. They know it, they're already thinking about it.

 

[zenmaster]

Tesla is not trying to position themselves for any particular market segment, they're trying to change the world, and they'll need a less expensive car to do so.

They're trying to do both, These things are not mutually exclusive. Musk has *specifically said* they're going after the BMW 3-series (which is a marketing position). This is what they are trying to do indeed.

 

[JeffK]

there will be a fourth generation car some day that will be even less expensive.

It's from the Norway interview (video)... and it was an offhand comment about the inevitability of even cheaper cars. It doesn't mean they're giving it much thought at the moment, it simply means eventually there will be cheaper cars.

 

[Colsla]

It's from the Norway interview (video)... and it was an offhand comment about the inevitability of even cheaper cars. It doesn't mean they're giving it much though at the moment, it simply means eventually there will be cheaper cars.

yes I agree. JB has stated a couple of times at least that the battery tech keeps getting better annd batter and the plateau (of the battery tech) isnt in sight yet... the problem though is the countries/mines that wanna take advantage of it by jacking up the price.. hopefully it wont go up by too much even with a lot of reserves

 

[JeffK]

Most of the metals we don't have to worry too much about. The biggest supply risk is Cobalt.

 

[TravelSD80]

[QUOTE="
For your particular case, and I say this entirely without malice or judgement, I honestly would suggest waiting until a year or two has gone by to pick up a Model ≡. Consumer reports recommends you not buy a new model car from any manufacturer or even (if I recall correctly) major redesign." [/QUOTE]

That's why I've now decided on leasing my first M3, and when that lease is up making a decision on to buy/lease my next then-current M3.

 

[melindav]

@TravelSD80 - have you looked at the cost of a lease? based on the Model S, IIRC, it's something like 55% of the cash purchase price. So... 3 years into it, you could have paid for 55% (loan interest not taken into account) with what you have in on the lease. If you look at the KBB on a 3 year old Model S, their value is well over 45%, closer to 70% of the original MSRP. So, fiscally an individual would do better purchasing and selling after 3 years than leasing. Leases make sense for a business, where it's cost can be deducted, but not so much for an individual.

 

[ecarfan]

@TravelSD80 - have you looked at the cost of a lease? based on the Model S, IIRC, it's something like 55% of the cash purchase price. So... 3 years into it, you could have paid for 55% (loan interest not taken into account) with what you have in on the lease. If you look at the KBB on a 3 year old Model S, their value is well over 45%, closer to 70% of the original MSRP.

KBB is way off from real world values. A 3 year old S with 30K to 40K miles on it is worth about 50% to 60% of what it cost new. That is not a criticism of Tesla, all cars depreciate dramatically during the first few years of ownership.

 

[zenmaster]

@TravelSD80 - have you looked at the cost of a lease? based on the Model S, IIRC, it's something like 55% of the cash purchase price. So... 3 years into it, you could have paid for 55% (loan interest not taken into account) with what you have in on the lease. If you look at the KBB on a 3 year old Model S, their value is well over 45%, closer to 70% of the original MSRP. So, fiscally an individual would do better purchasing and selling after 3 years than leasing. Leases make sense for a business, where it's cost can be deducted, but not so much for an individual.

Normally, if you have a high residual and you don't want to keep the car, leasing makes sense. However, Tesla does not factor in the actual residual (70%) into their leasing program. If they did, there would be thousands more people leasing the car.

 

[glenhurst]

They're trying to do both, These things are not mutually exclusive. Musk has *specifically said* they're going after the BMW 3-series (which is a marketing position). This is what they are trying to do indeed.

Right, what I was trying to get at is that is that Tesla was created not to answer the question "How do we get into the luxury car market?" but rather "How do we change the world, that is, accelerate the transition to sustainable transport?". The market they're trying to be in is just a means to an end. By comparison, what is GM's reason for existing? Probably something along the lines of "make people's lives better through great cars & trucks", which may be a worthwhile goal, but is different than Tesla's.