dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Fair enough on the above points and I fully expect Telsa to trounce the Bolt in nearly every area with the exception of passenger space, but that comes down to the sedan style of car vs the CUV style. I also believe OTA software updates will be there. I just don't believe they will install the auto pilot sensors in 100% of the cars like they did with the S and X. The overhead margins just aren't there on a car like the Model 3 to be able to install options that (potentially) will never get paid for. Tesla may surprise me on this, as they do take a fair amount of risks, but if not enough people opt for the auto pilot upgrade (which is much more likely on a lower priced mass market car) Tesla will lose money on it which is the last thing they need or we want. It all comes down to the cost of the sensors really and that I admittedly do not know. I do expect them to build the car with the option to install them later at a service center at the very least.
AP hardware has to be on every Model 3 made
* speeds production having all get the same option, less rerouting/batch changes on the assembly line.
* cars can have AP enabled in software later by first owner if they don't order it
* cars can have AP enabled in software during CPO process after a trade in
It's win/win for 95% of the cases. (wasted if the car is wrecked and Tesla never got paid for AP but otherwise a win).
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Wait, so does that mean it's after they sell 200k in a single quarter?
here is my explanation of that from another thread.
The phase-out period stretches over one year, beginning in the second calendar quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer hits the 200,000 vehicle US sales mark. From there, all qualifying vehicles sold by the manufacturer are eligible for 50% of their specified credit for the first two quarters and 25% of the credit for the next two quarters.
For example if a manufacturer sells its 200,000th vehicle in the first quarter (Q1) of 2018, the credit amounts for all of that manufacturer's eligible vehicles would phase out as shown in the table below.
Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit
- Q1 2018 Full amount
- Q2 2018 Full amount
- Q3 2018 50% of full amount
- Q4 2018 50% of full amount
- Q1 2019 25% of full amount
- Q2 2019 25% of full amount
- Q3 2019 No credit
It's entirely possible that it will trigger sooner and run out sooner but the important concept is that it doesn't go away immediately and when it starts going away it diminishes slowly not all at once.
If Tesla is pumping out 10,000 plus a month in 2018 they could easily sell 50,000 or more with the full tax credit. They could then be selling double that amount in the next 6 months with half tax credit. And then double rate again with 1/4 tax credit. All in all hundreds of thousands of Model 3s could be sold with federal tax credit.
Keep in mind Tesla can game this slightly by focusing on overseas deliveries of Model S and Model X the month they are going to roll over 200,000 US deliveries. If that rolls them into the next quarter it extends the tax credit by 3 months no matter how many they sell after that.
Now to update the current totals at end of 2015 would be
US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
- 2011 end 1,900
- 2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
- 2013 end 22,200 (14,650 for 2013 + prior years)
- 2014 end 39,500 (17,300 for 2014 + prior years)
- 2015 end 65,414 (25,914 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
Do the math if Tesla is doing less than 26,000 a year US in 2015 how many years will it take to hit 200,000 US sales? They'll ramp up S and X production but there will still be plenty of discounts on Model 3.
Lets say 75,000 US for 2016 and 100,000 US for 2017, and maybe some of the tail of 2017 are founders Model 3. Then in 1Q 2018 they open the floodgates and a ton of Signature Model 3s come out, in 2Q 2018 a ton of regular model 3s come out all with full tax credit. Hoorah, look at this again
Tax Credit Phase-Out Schedule Quarter Credit
- Q3 2017 possible deferred shipping to EU/ROW to avoid crossing 200,00 in US
- Q4 2017 founders Model 3 with full credit (200,000 mark crossed)
- Q1 2018 signature Model 3 with Full credit
- Q2 2018 production Model 3 with Full credit (will they be making 4,000+ a week by then? Maybe 12 weeks worth is 50,000 Model 3s with full credit?)
- Q3 2018 50% of full amount (maybe 75,000 Model 3s with half credit)
- Q4 2018 50% of full amount (maybe 100,000 Model 3s with half credit, with extra production going outside the US)
- Q1 2019 25% of full amount (maybe 100,000 Model 3s with quarter credit, with extra production going outside the US)
- Q2 2019 25% of full amount (maybe 100,000 Model 3s with quarter credit, with extra production going outside the US)
- Q3 2019 No credit
all in all they might get out 100,000 with full credit, 200,000 with half credit, and another 200,000 with quarter credit. I'd hardly call 500,000 Model 3s in 2018/2019 the same as your version of none of them getting the credit.
Shift that back a quarter and 100,000 less cars get a full credit, shift that forward a quarter and 100,000 more get a full credit. Just depends when they can start cranking out Model 3 en masse.
