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May 19, 2017
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Tesla’s Autopilot experienced its safest quarter since release, according to the company’s quarterly safety report. The report showed that vehicles operating on Autopilot were involved in an accident one time for every 4.68 million miles driven. That performance bested Q4 2019, where Tesla logged one accident for every 3.07 million miles. Tesla said owners who...
[WPURI="https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2020/05/01/tesla-says-q1-was-autopilots-safest-to-date/"]READ FULL ARTICLE[/WPURI]
 

diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
7,443
8,609
Terre Haute, IN USA
Since AP is a L2 driver assist and the driver is still considered to be responsible, it would probably be more appropriate to understand these statistics as "human drivers assisted by Autopilot only had 1 accident per 4.68 million miles."
 

SOULPEDL

Supporting Member
Jul 25, 2016
3,125
11,956
Arizona
Since AP is a L2 driver assist and the driver is still considered to be responsible, it would probably be more appropriate to understand these statistics as "human drivers assisted by Autopilot only had 1 accident per 4.68 million miles."
Agreed. But those numbers make a compelling case because it's almost exactly 10x safer than the national average. Wasn't that Elon's goal? I've always thought it's like 2 people driving. And once you master the hand-offs, this is safer, therefore get Autopilot.
 
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Mardak

Member
Oct 13, 2018
677
1,347
USA
How about at least just comparing highway miles?
Yeah, assuming people have been using Autopilot on similar types of roads year to year, here's trying to look at the numbers over a year instead of quarter by quarter as driving behavior changes with seasons.

tesla vehicle safety.png

So 2019 Q1 to 2020 Q1 had 63% improvement in Autopilot miles per accident. And the average Autopilot miles per accident for the previous 4 quarters since 2019 Q2 have always been improving but not as much for the 12 months ending 2019 Q4.

Unclear if the big increase the past quarter were from Autopilot improvements or perhaps a less wet winter?
 

Dutchie

Active Member
Jun 9, 2013
1,560
3,504
Canada
In the 1st quarter, we registered one accident for every 4.68 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.99 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.42 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 479,000 miles.

Total overall miles and crashes were significantly reduced in this quarter.

So let's assume AP engaged is only highway
All other situations is driving on all roads.

Conclusion:
  1. Tesla drivers are very safe drivers in general 1.42 million Tesla w/o safety, versus 479,000 NHTSA's;
  2. Safety features increases safety of Tesla's by about 40% (1.42 ->1.99);
  3. Highway driving is safer than general driving.
 
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AdamVIP

Member
Mar 4, 2019
531
303
California
I think these results can at least somewhat be attributed to the fact that significantly less cars were on the road for the second half of the quarter. Less things to accident into means less accidents.
 

Mardak

Member
Oct 13, 2018
677
1,347
USA
Tesla Vehicle Safety Report

Looks like 2020 Q1 keeps the highest Autopilot engaged miles per accident with 4.68 million as Q2 dropped QoQ to 4.53 but was an increase YoY from 3.27. As before looking at the trailing 12 months, assuming similar number of miles driven per quarter, yearly average Autopilot engaged miles has been steadily increasing.

2020 q2 safety.png


At least comparing Autopilot engaged miles relative to without active safety miles, the ratio has increased from 2.1x from a year ago to 2.6x now. It'll be interesting to see if Tesla provides more details for these numbers such as the split between highway vs city street miles especially as Autopilot now has stop control or if Tesla considers Level 3 for highways.
 
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