Tesla says there are 60,000 FSD Beta testers now

[diplomat33]

From the shareholder deck that was just released for the earnings call later today, Tesla says that there are now 60,000 FSD beta testers:

Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD) The team continued to iterate on FSD Beta software, releasing seven updates throughout the quarter. We successfully increased the number of FSD Beta vehicles from a couple of thousand in Q3 to nearly 60,000 vehicles in the US today. IIHS awarded the vision-only version Model 3 and Model Y a score of “superior” in collision-avoidance functionality and Top Safety Pick+, the highest possible rating.

Earnings Call Release

I am very pleasantly surprised. That number is higher that I thought it would be.

 

[Battpower]

From the shareholder deck that was just released for the earnings call later today, Tesla says that there are now 60,000 FSD beta testers:



Earnings Call Release

I am very pleasantly surprised. That number is higher that I thought it would be.

Is that number qualified? #passed test, #actively using etc?

 

[diplomat33]

Is that number qualified? #passed test, #actively using etc?

The statement from Tesla just says that they increased the number of vehicles with FSD Beta to 60,000. So I think 60,000 is just how many cars Tesla has sent FSD Beta to and presumably, the owners turned FSD Beta on. That's how interpret the statement from Tesla. So no, we don't know if all 60,000 vehicles are active testers. It is possible that some of them got FSD Beta but don't use it very often.

 

[Battpower]

some of them got FSD Beta but don't use it very often

That certainly seems a possibility.

 

[JulienW]

....It is possible that some of them got FSD Beta but don't use it very often.

I'm a full on masochist and use Beta almost all the time.

 

[Mardak]

Here's an updated FSD Beta population estimate with the new numbers and accounting for TeslaScope sampling being even less representative as FSD Beta expands to a wider range of Safety Scores:

Looks like the holiday update might have been a nice surprise for nearly 20k owners getting FSD Beta.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

The statement from Tesla just says that they increased the number of vehicles with FSD Beta to 60,000. So I think 60,000 is just how many cars Tesla has sent FSD Beta to and presumably, the owners turned FSD Beta on. That's how interpret the statement from Tesla. So no, we don't know if all 60,000 vehicles are active testers. It is possible that some of them got FSD Beta but don't use it very often.

I use it whenever there isn't someone behind me.

So about .01% of the time.

 

[Padelford]

Note that Mardak's plot has flattened out vs time, so I'm guessing Tesla has maxed out on beta testers & input data for FSD Beta.

 

[Dunsel]

I use it whenever there isn't someone behind me.

So about .01% of the time.

Perhaps you haven’t found the pedal to the right of the brake pedal. In a Tesla, if you step on this pedal, the cars behind you will disappear.

I highly recommend it.

I find that this pedal is key to my enjoyment of FSD nearly 100% of the time I drive.

 

[EVNow]

In related news ...

Elon on the earnings call now -

- Will be shocked if FSD Beta doesn't match human driving (failure rate) this year
- Lot of important changes in the stack coming next few months

 

[Battpower]

In related news ...

A man clearly with his finger on the pulse. Has he mentioned tighter integration with cold weather handling?

 

[mhan00]

In related news ...

Both encouraging and funny. Elon and his “FSD is really close” statements, lol. I’ve been incredibly impressed with my use of Beta, but also am leery of when it will be good enough for me to confidently let it drive without being ready to take over at anytime. It does so much right for me, but the mistakes can be glaring.

 

[Mardak]

Note that Mardak's plot has flattened out vs time

Basically in the most recent half of Public FSD Beta (54 days), Tesla has only really had a single wave of additions to FSD Beta with the holiday update. But then again, assuming my estimates are somewhat reasonable, it looks like the FSD Beta population doubled with that release.

It does somewhat seem like Tesla is waiting for the next major release before significantly adding more testers.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Perhaps you haven’t found the pedal to the right of the brake pedal. In a Tesla, if you step on this pedal, the cars behind you will disappear.

I highly recommend it.

I find that this pedal is key to my enjoyment of FSD nearly 100% of the time I drive.

Ha, that reminds me of the time I got sick of phantom braking under FSD beta that I just held the throttle down.

That was with 10.3.1 (or something like that)
Thankfully that doesn't happen as much with 10.9

 

[RomanJackson]

 

[NCC81701]

Both encouraging and funny. Elon and his “FSD is really close” statements, lol. I’ve been incredibly impressed with my use of Beta, but also am leery of when it will be good enough for me to confidently let it drive without being ready to take over at anytime. It does so much right for me, but the mistakes can be glaring.

I’ve been on FSD Beta since 10.5 and the improvements has been vast. Early on I really did think FSD is more of a hazard on the road than manual driving. Every since 10.8 I feel that most of my disengagements now are due to things like poor lane choices rather than actively preventing the car from crashing. I’ve actually caught myself spacing out while the car was on FSD during my commute as I do while using AP on long stretches of freeway driving.

I don’t know about true hands free take a nap level of FSD driving being accomplished in 2022, but it’s rapidly improving to a level where it is a legit driving aid. I expect that level of FSD later this year.

 

[Battpower]

I’ve actually caught myself spacing out while the car was on FSD

And that is, imo, one of the biggest hurdles. FSD kinda has to jump to near perfection (in terms of meeting required levels of performance) and there still seem to be some pretty stubborn areas where it consistently struggles.

 

[momo3605]

And that is, imo, one of the biggest hurdles. FSD kinda has to jump to near perfection (in terms of meeting required levels of performance) and there still seem to be some pretty stubborn areas where it consistently struggles.

I don't believe there will be any jump. Following FSD Beta's development from late 2020 to now, there have been no major jumps. Just slight improvements every version, culminating to an improvement of a disengagement rate from (just making numbers up) 1 per mile to maybe 10 per mile. I think it'll just continue to gradually increase, and POSSIBLY, by the end of the year, it'll get to a point where they'll open up FSD Beta to everyone as an advanced L2 driving assist, and say it's safer than the human driver in the same way they say about Autopilot.

 

[Battpower]

I don't believe there will be any jump.

Neither do I.

But that doesn't bode well for getting through the current phase where you are trying to venture into performance levels that will doubtless risk developing complacency with some users while the product still has quite a few potential weak spots.

 

[azred]

I don't believe there will be any jump. Following FSD Beta's development from late 2020 to now, there have been no major jumps. Just slight improvements every version, culminating to an improvement of a disengagement rate from (just making numbers up) 1 per mile to maybe 10 per mile. I think it'll just continue to gradually increase, and POSSIBLY, by the end of the year, it'll get to a point where they'll open up FSD Beta to everyone as an advanced L2 driving assist, and say it's safer than the human driver in the same way they say about Autopilot.

I hope you are right as I have it on two cars and many people have waited five years for the product. I wish I could say city streets is close to being usable without making big mistakes. But it makes big mistakes and unpredictable big mistakes. For example, a couple days ago it “tried” to do an unprotected left in my neighborhood and thank heavens an approaching car slowed. It hesitated and then froze — and this is an intersection I have had no problems with for weeks. I do pay constant attention and probably had time to avoid a collision but I really believe a 15 year old with a new learners permit would do better.

In summary, I would never say I should have the product when others don’t, but I see a rash of accidents if this becomes general release soon.