Here is a 40k feet perspective from someone not in the battery industry: lead acid batteries, which probably have a somewhat optimized manufacturing after all these years are well under $100/kWh despite being 5 times heavier than li-ion.
As mining, logistics and production approaches full automation in a "machine makes the machine" solar powered manufacturing paradigm, the price of the finished product will approach the raw material cost paid to the mine owners.
With the risk of over simplifying matters one could say that if you are paying the same raw material cost as for Lead Acid, the Li Ion cost should be under $20/kWh, since they are 5 times lighter, with today's chemistry, and it should improve from there.
Seen from this perspective one can guess that Elon has been severely under playing the cost reduction by the giga factories. The very Semi pricing is discussed in the thread actually evidence of this. Why under state? Perhaps because the potential savings would be on such a magnitude that they would be incomprehensible, especially since industry experts were talking about $300-600/kWh pack cost by the the time the giga factory was planned and didn't necessarily see how far along Tesla was already. The announced 30% cost reduction was already mind blowing enough. Tesla may be keeping some powder dry for future investment rounds, or?
