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Tesla Semi: Pack Cost Per kWh

Discussion in 'Semi' started by SageBrush, Nov 23, 2017.

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  1. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    Yesterday Tesla published anticipated Semi prices:
    $150k for the 300 mile range
    $180k for the 500 mile range

    Previously Tesla reported ~ 2 kWh per mile consumption,
    so the extra 200 miles amounts to ~ 400 kWh

    $30,000 for 400 kWh capacity is $75 a kWh pack price, RETAIL


    I can barely breathe.
     
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  2. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    Its terrific, and its also 2021/2022 prices.
     
  3. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    I thought delivery is slated to start two years from now. Call it 30 months in Elon time
     
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  4. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    Tesla always prices looking at full production economics. Which is unconventional and effective for their business plan. The gigafactory is a great example. How many investors would agree with the statement "the gigafactory produces the lowest cost cells"? Yet this can not possibly be true, according to Panasonic.

    So I'm guessing that Tesla won't be producing truck volume until 2021/2022. But they will produce some trucks in 2019. They are on Powerwall 2 yet still not in volume production of that product.
     
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  5. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    Trucks sold in ~ two years will have a marginal kWh retail pack price of $75
     
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  6. kbM3

    kbM3 Active Member

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    It is too exciting.

    There is also a chance Tesla is sandbagging the efficiency and it is really closer to 1.5 kWh/mil. But this would be great also.
     
  7. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    Yes, at a negative margin. Which is fine, but not an indicator of the state of battery prices. You can't take advantage of this price and order a 100 trucks for delivery in March of 2020. You can get a sample and pay a below cost price. If you are Walmart Tesla may give you 15 at that price. But it's a sampler price, not a market price.
     
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  8. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    Perhaps. Your guess may be right in terms of company profit.

    Here is one fact though: Tesla will be selling its truck production from ~ 2019 at marginal retail kWh pricing of $75/kWh.
    That is just awesome, and I hope similar pricing comes to the passenger car segment soon.

    Forgive me for saying so quietly, but it also puts a value on the Model 3 upgrade pack used price value.
     
  9. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    Another way to look at the new semi pricing is that Tesla is willing to sell the extra 200 miles of range at cost. So $75/kWh is cost, not retail.

    Probably a good way to mess with Daimler.
     
  10. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    More conjecture on your part.

    I'll stick with what we know, which is the Tesla reported, anticipated retail cost in 2019.
     
  11. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Or that Tesla is willing to make more money off the 300 mile version. Nothing says the 500 version isn't 25% GM and the batteries aren't > $75 per kWh.
     
  12. Lookingforward

    Lookingforward New Member

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    Musk has a milestone to archieve 30% gross margin for his bonuses. So i assume the pricing is somewhere in the vicinity of that.
     
  13. ElecFan

    ElecFan Member

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    #14 ElecFan, Jan 17, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2018
    Pack costs per kWh are still going down. From €273 in 2016 to €209 in 2017 or ~23.5% lower. Compared to 2015 (€350) it's a ~40% drop. If Tesla was -as EM claimed- below €200 at the beginning of 2016 and has the same % cost drop, it might even be at €120-130/kWh.
    China Goes All In on the Transit Revolution


    Schermafbeelding 2018-01-17 om 12.43.15.png
     
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  14. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    Can you show us when/where Panasonic made such a claim?
    color me skeptical
     
  15. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    SEMI Founders Edition, limit 1000, extra $50,000.
    Perhaps ONLY Founders Editions delivered in 2019 ?? and other will wait til 2020??

    and Tesla may be able to keep things running a full speed to supply Model 3 or SEMI or PowerWall - good to be flexible.
     
  16. Olle

    Olle Member

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    Here is a 40k feet perspective from someone not in the battery industry: lead acid batteries, which probably have a somewhat optimized manufacturing after all these years are well under $100/kWh despite being 5 times heavier than li-ion.

    As mining, logistics and production approaches full automation in a "machine makes the machine" solar powered manufacturing paradigm, the price of the finished product will approach the raw material cost paid to the mine owners.
    With the risk of over simplifying matters one could say that if you are paying the same raw material cost as for Lead Acid, the Li Ion cost should be under $20/kWh, since they are 5 times lighter, with today's chemistry, and it should improve from there.

    Seen from this perspective one can guess that Elon has been severely under playing the cost reduction by the giga factories. The very Semi pricing is discussed in the thread actually evidence of this. Why under state? Perhaps because the potential savings would be on such a magnitude that they would be incomprehensible, especially since industry experts were talking about $300-600/kWh pack cost by the the time the giga factory was planned and didn't necessarily see how far along Tesla was already. The announced 30% cost reduction was already mind blowing enough. Tesla may be keeping some powder dry for future investment rounds, or?
     
  17. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    The material costs are too high for that. However, it doesn't matter so much. $100/kWh would be disruptive enough.
     
  18. Olle

    Olle Member

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    Created a battery price table for some perspective:
    upload_2019-1-17_12-10-59.png
     
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  19. Olle

    Olle Member

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    #20 Olle, Jan 17, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2019
    Let's say that Aluminum is the majority of the ingredients, by mass and that the other ingredients can be mined for the same price as Alu is today, once the mining industry is scaled up to meet future demand of li ion. Alu costs about $2/kg. Energy density for the best li ion today around 0.3 kWh/kg. Main material cost =$2/0.3 kWh/kg=6.67 $/kWh. This is the battery cost that we would approach (not reach) once everything, including the machine that makes the machine, is automated.
    Edit: of course mining will be more automated too, so price of land will be the only variable in the end
     

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