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Tesla Semi Pricing to Start at $150,000

Discussion in 'Semi' started by TMC Staff, Nov 23, 2017.

  1. Olds442

    Olds442 Member

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    the cost is amazingly low in my opinion. well done. this will have an effect on the industry in a big way.
     
  2. insaneoctane

    insaneoctane Active Member

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    The more I analyze the Tesla semi, the more I wonder why is Tesla doing this??
    Follow me.....
    • US annual semi market ~220K
    • At prices announced Tesla makes $200/kWh per sale
    • Tesla makes $560/kWh on the M3
    • Tesla makes over $1,000/kWh on the typical MS/MX
    • Takes about 10x the quantity of batteries to make 1 semi sale
    • Takes 4x the quantity of motors to make 1 semi sale
    • All 4 of those motors are warrantied for 1M miles instead of 120K
    • Tesla will need to make significant CAPEX for creating whole new megacharger infrastructure
    What is the appeal to spend tons of additional CAPEX, to support building vehicles that require 10x more batteries, 4x more motors, more warranty liability and bring in far less margin for a potential market that is smaller than your backordered M3?? I don't get it, what am I missing?
     
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  3. baillies

    baillies Member

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    #43 baillies, Nov 30, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2017
    Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy (production and consumption), long distance freight is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and everyone has said an electric semi does not work, that was till the Tesla announcement. They will not hit volume production till 2020 when 3 and Y will have hit volume and there will probably be several gigafactories so producing a few semi’s will not be a significant capex given tens of billions in turnover. Now if other manufacturers see what can be done they have a few years to work on competing which just makes a faster transition off diesel.

    Note the car is not just a battery, lots of other costs although the battery is significant. The margin on grid scale powerpacks is already low and will be lower by 2019/20.
     
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  4. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    Here are a few high level thoughts on why the Tesla Semi is worthwhile.

    The worldwide large truck market is in the range of 2-3M vehicles (this includes non-Semis). For comparison purposes, the market leader Daimler sold 500K large trucks in 2015 and 415K in 2016, with revenue of 37B Euro in 2015 and 33B Euro in 2016.

    The addressable truck market for Tesla is actually significantly larger because in addition to selling the Semi it is displacing diesel (which is roughly triple the cost of the Semi in the US) with charging from batteries and electricity. So Tesla can charge more for the truck to recoup the cost of batteries, and also generate additional revenue from selling electricity through Megachargers etc.

    There is no question that Tesla intends to expand beyond the US. In his recent talk posted elsewhere on TMC, Jerome Guillen discusses modifying the Semi design for European roads soon after the US introduction. I can't see a reason why Tesla would not eventually market the Semi worldwide, with variations to meet the needs and regulatory requirements of different parts of the world.

    Also, the "Pickup that any carry a Pickup" already signals that once Tesla is in the truck business, it can modify the Semi platform for other trucking uses. It can also develop other trucks to address other parts of the market.

    In addition to targeting a large market, Tesla is in a unique position to make very quick inroads into the market. Tesla can use its advantages in low cost battery production, experience developing a charging network, and access to solar power and storage to quickly undercut diesel and take a large share of the Semi market, as soon as it is able to ramp production.

    In addition to the very large financial opportunity, as @baillies notes, Semis use an enormous amount of diesel per vehicle because of low mileage and large number of vehicle miles per year. So developing a Semi promotes Tesla's mission of accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy.

    Finally, having street cred in the big truck market may also help Tesla sell Pickups when the time comes.
     
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  5. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Rare combination

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    There was a comment that the 18650 contract is about up. As I recall, Tesla was on the hook to buy 2 billion batteries. Can it be that Tesla has bought THAT many batteries already? How soon will the 18650 be finished? [I'm interested in getting a power wall and I want the latest thing - so how long do I wait?]

    Musk made a big deal that the windshield will last through a bomb blast. If they really make such good glass for the Tesla Semi, why not make windshields for Freightliner and Peterbuilt windshields also? And why not for every chevy, ford and bmw that uses a windshield? new and replacement markets. Just this single product line would make many businessmen quite happy, and musk did not elaborate. I think I'll buy more stock!!
     
  6. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Powerwall 2 uses 2170 cells, if that is what you are asking.
     
  7. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Rare combination

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    Really? I was convinced that the power-walls being sold now were using up the 18650 supply, and until that supply was exhausted, that was the only game. Can I specify Power-wall 2 in my purchase - and get the 2170 cells? If true- exciting news for me.
     
  8. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    I
    I am not aware of the continued sale of original Powerwalls. The near doubling of capacity to 13.5kWh occurred with the change to 2170s.
     
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  9. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Rare combination

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    I see my proposal indicated a 13.5 kWh powerwall. They were not specific about what batteries were inside, so I assumed the worst. Thank you for giving me better inside information. [how do you know this? do you work at the Buffalo solar gigafactory?]
     
  10. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Ha, Tesla is my favorite team, so I follow all their stats. Not a player though due to geography. (plus if I did work for them, they wouldn't let me do this :oops: )

    Tesla Powerwall 2 now ready to ship after strong pre-orders, early Gigafactory battery production went to Powerpacks
    Tesla Powerwall 2 Now Shipping With 2170 Gigafactory Batteries Inside
     
  11. Olle

    Olle Member

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    1. Part of the original Tesla mission and spelled out in Master Plan, Part Deux
    2. The biggest permissible truck is the best 'Halo Truck' that will help sell the smaller trucks.
    3. The ridiculously low price is probably meant to discourage deep pocketed competitors from squashing Tesla Semi with price dumping. It seems like Model S was able to enter the market as a high margin product because most of the competitors didn't even understand what was happening, and many still don't. With the Semi it is much easier for the industry to analyze how it will play out. In addition, they have already seen it happen with Model S/X and 3. Fool me once...
     
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  12. AudubonB

    AudubonB One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!

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    Warning: Chilling, party-pooping thoughts ahead

    Given the number of windshields I've chewed through - as in: standard procedure upon purchasing a new vehicle in Alaska, the very first thing one does is to take out a BFHammer and go wham! wham! wham! to your windshield and then say "Okay; phew - got that out of the way" - I temper my giddy thoughts about how blissful life would be if I could get my hands on that kind of glass....


    ....with remembrances of the GTAT debacle. I was one of those who got my fingers very badly scorched. An awfully good lesson to keep in mind.

    More prosaically, however: there has been absolutely zero indication that it would be Tesla who would be making the glass; nor should there be. Bringing such components like car seats in-house is one thing; forging your own steel, mining your own lithium and creating your own glass foundry is and entirely different one...and, in a word, wrong.
     
  13. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Possibly teaming with AGP who built a new facility where the X windshield is made.
    Meet the maker of the Tesla Model X’s “Big Sky” panoramic windshield

    So who makes the glass for the solar tiles?
     
  14. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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  15. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    yeah, I saw that article had it linked, and then removed it when I found the other one. The idea of adding a glass factory to Fremont (where the tiles are getting assembled to start with) didn't make a lot of sense to me. Then again, shipping the glass tile to get assembled didn't either. But, if it has the space and power available, I think it's just another piece of equipment.
     
  16. larmor

    larmor Active Member

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    That is a good analysis. Another poster earlier on mentioned that may be Tesla is pivoting to an energy delivery company. This would alter the analysis. Just like the analysis for netflix going from dvd to streaming, or other amazon from books to basically selling everything, to amazon prime by creating their own TV/video content.
     
  17. insaneoctane

    insaneoctane Active Member

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    I just don't get it financially. I understand the desire and environmental attraction. But the finances are still seemingly broken. How many semi's does Tesla need to sell to pay for ONE single mega charger? Go ahead and make a educated guess. Meanwhile all those capital expenditures could go to MY or passenger truck or?? Those batteries could go to MY or power wall or?? All with way more margin. Don't forget the capex for a dedicated Gigafactory just for semi....
     
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  18. baillies

    baillies Member

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    I don’t think they are thinking about protecting margin otherwise they would only sell powerwall and no powerpacks. They want to drive down costs through scale.
     
  19. Oreo

    Oreo Member

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    Hahaha, priceless
     
  20. nwdiver

    nwdiver Well-Known Member

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    Anyone else find themselves suddenly shopping around for Class 8 RV trailers? ;)
     
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