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Tesla Semi

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So what does the Cybertruck unveiling suggest about how Tesla is approaching the Semi?
Is Tesla slowing plans for Semi so that it can bump up Cybertruck?
What new Cybertruck technologies might crossover to the Semi?
Will there be a CyberSemi?
What else?
All this stuff is waiting for batteries.
 
So what does the Cybertruck unveiling suggest about how Tesla is approaching the Semi?
Is Tesla slowing plans for Semi so that it can bump up Cybertruck?
What new Cybertruck technologies might crossover to the Semi?
Will there be a CyberSemi?
What else?

It doesn't seem like they are slowing the plans for the Semi because of the Cybertruck, they have said they are going to start limited production of the Semi in about a year. While the Cybertruck is another year out from that. (Both are likely delayed as they are because of battery supply issues.)

No, there likely won't be a CyberSemi. A Semi needs a frame to deal with the weight of the loads it has to pull. And that is part of why the Semi bodies are normally made of lightweight fiberglass. (I think Tesla used Carbon Fiber for their prototypes.)

I would think that some Tesla Semi technology might go into the Cybertruck, not the other way around. Like for example the glass. And I would think that the tri-motor Cybertruck will benefit from the anti-jackknifing technology they are putting in to the Tesla Semi.
 
All this stuff is waiting for batteries.

This seems like what's really going on. With as many products as Tesla has coming, with approximately all of them gated by cell and battery pack manufacturing, my conclusion is they've got a big enough battery technology change coming that they don't want to spend the capital to build the coming battery tech sooner than they need to.

And maybe they already have enough space at GF1 to do the initial line design and ramp of the new technology.


My own impatience speaking - I'd like to see the rest of the physical building at GF1 get announced and going. Finish building out the footprint, even if the interior is empty, so that when the cell ramp is ready to go, they just need to move in the machines and go.

Of course, I'm thinking they need something more like GF Europe, GF #2 in North America, and probably GF #2 in China and Europe as well and the sooner all of those are built and producing cells / packs (and vehicles) the better. So they're a LONG ways short of being able to scale up all of the vehicles they've already announced. Much less new stuff. Or Tesla Energy.

Dear lord Tesla has a big market to address, just waiting for them.
 
Elons sends conflicting messages: "Lets get to volume production on Semi" followed by, "Where this will be built is not firmed up yet".

How can you talk about volume production, if you don't even know where to build it? There are only two factories today in US - Nevada and CA. So if it is not decided between those two, then 'Lets get to volume production' is very disingenuous .
 
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Elons sends conflicting messages: "Lets get to volume production on Semi" followed by, "Where this will be built is not firmed up yet".

How can you talk about volume production, if you don't even know where to build it? There are only two factories today in US - Nevada and CA. So if it is not decided between those two, then 'Lets get to volume production' is very disingenuous .
Tesla makes packs and motors (maybe seats) at GF1. Third party makes steel frame/ axels/ rollong chassis. Other third party makes body panels are rest of pieces. Final assembly is anywhere with space. Only takes a few months to get a line up and running for this type of build (lower rate, with larger assemblies).
 
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My own impatience speaking - I'd like to see the rest of the physical building at GF1 get announced and going. Finish building out the footprint, even if the interior is empty, so that when the cell ramp is ready to go, they just need to move in the machines and go.

I thought there were problems with expanding GF1 — employee housing and maybe water supply or something. I obviously forget the specifics, but it didn’t seem like a given that they’d build out more there as opposed to geographically diversify.
 
Class 8 truck manufacturers - sales 2007-2018
Published by I. Wagner, Apr 20, 2020
This statistic represents U.S. Class 8 truck sales between 2007 and 2018, by brand. In 2018, Daimler's Freightliner division sold more than 90,860 Class 8 trucks. With a 36 percent U.S. Class 8 truck market share, Freightliner is also the market leader in the United States. The Class 8 truck gross vehicle weight rating is anything above 33,000 pounds.

Class 8 trucks - sales by brand 2018 | Statista

[@jhm great article, well worth a review.]

This URL is just a quick summary of stats for US market and the top 6 builders of class 8 Semis.
Interesting to watch roll out of electrification of heavy trucks.
 
Class 8 truck manufacturers - sales 2007-2018
Published by I. Wagner, Apr 20, 2020
This statistic represents U.S. Class 8 truck sales between 2007 and 2018, by brand. In 2018, Daimler's Freightliner division sold more than 90,860 Class 8 trucks. With a 36 percent U.S. Class 8 truck market share, Freightliner is also the market leader in the United States. The Class 8 truck gross vehicle weight rating is anything above 33,000 pounds.

Class 8 trucks - sales by brand 2018 | Statista

[@jhm great article, well worth a review.]

This URL is just a quick summary of stats for US market and the top 6 builders of class 8 Semis.
Interesting to watch roll out of electrification of heavy trucks.

That 300k/year number is what I've been using for the US (I think that includes Canada and Mexico, so North America). Other research I've done before indicates there's another 2x that number in the class 4-7 category - call that 600k units (bigger than an F350, but smaller than a semi). Also realizing that 300k/year number does fluctuate, and potentially by a lot. I believe that last year and this year are more like 200k.

When I looked for it, I remember finding an installed base (semis) of 16M in North America. So while this market is a replacement market in North America, it takes more than 10 years to replace all of the trucks. I believe this is because the trucks on a 10 year replacement cycle are being driven 100k (+) / year miles, and then there are old trucks that go to small users. One example I've seen a few times in Arkansas - farms that find it more helpful to have an old semi to go get a trailer of hay, or haul the occasional pile of produce to market rather than hiring somebody to haul in or out a load of stuff. I figure these are more like 5-10k miles/year, and come just about exclusively from the well used category :)


Anyway - that installed base means, I think, that the 300k/year market will expand to 600-1000k/year if the economics are good enough. Because it won't just be providing replacement as they would normally occur - we'll also be proactively replacing trucks that wouldn't otherwise be in line for replacement.

Which will in turn push down used truck prices, making those very occasional users of semis very happy - they can have higher and higher quality trucks, for lower and lower prices (though the diesel's gonna be a .. bummer .. to buy).
 
Would Tesla have to build larger facilities to service these trucks? Will existing service centers be able to handle these large trucks?

I'm not in the industry (so take these as guesses) - yes, I figure Tesla will need to build out a Semi service and support network. And thus - no, the existing service network can't service commercial trucks the way they need to be serviced.

Heck - if Tesla is going to go after this market on it's own, I figure they've got an entire division that needs to be built, not just Tesla branded commercial service centers. They'll need to build service centers around the country, as well as make available training, parts, and tools for existing service centers.

They've got to get a parts division that is sharp and on the ball - a truck that needs a part needs it that day or the next, because every day it's out of service is a day of revenue lost. These are income producing assets for the buyers, and they're not going to buy if they don't trust their ability to keep them on the road.

I figure many of the larger fleets have their own service people / centers - they will need service manuals and fast access to parts as well, and training on how to do more than air pressure and wiper blades.


There's also more than trucks involved in selling trucks. From reading Trucking Articles - FreightWaves I get the sense that there's a bunch of electronics in the truck cab. Some of that Tesla can partner with and/or rely on 3rd parties to provide (something they're known for :D). Or they'll need to build themselves. Some of it they can probably do better than anybody else and use that to create a competitive advantage (truck telemetry), but that's got to be available to truck buyers - not just Tesla.

The real point is that this market is different than the light duty vehicle market Tesla's been in so far. These are income producing assets Tesla will be making, and buyers aren't getting vehicle #2 if vehicle #1 is off the road for a week for an otherwise routine repair that should be same day or tomorrow at worst.


Personal experience with my Model X. We had a car v. coyote encounter near Boise that needed repair. The body shop there was outstanding to work with, got parts reasonably quickly, and had the car repaired and ready for me to pickup in about 4-6 weeks (I think about 1/2 of that time waiting on parts from Tesla). That worked out fine for me and I think generally works in the light duty vehicle market. My guess is that's a disaster in the commercial truck market (anybody with actual knowledge like to correct me?)


All of this is stuff I put into my 3 phase adoption model for electric semi's (I made this up - it's my view into how things evolve).

In phase 1, the question buyers are asking is "do these things work?". This is an intentionally vague question as it encompasses everything involved in the buyer operating their business. Do they move stuff from here to there, in quantities that diesels move today?

Can they be refueled fast enough that they can be used again as fast as the business needs (a truck that makes one out and back / day has overnight to refuel / charge - that's easy).

Can they be repaired? Can fleet service bays stock common parts, or are they all special orders? Can fleet service bays get maintenance and service manuals? Can they get training? Can they do battery swaps and motor swaps, or do they need to wait for Tesla Service to handle that? Do the special parts arrive the next day reliably, or do they take a week? Etc..

Is there extra training to run the truck (of course) and is it difficult (probably not)?

And on and on. To me, all of this is wrapped up under "can I drop this into my current business process, and/or can I drop this into a lightly modified version of my current business process" that still works?

When the answer is yes, then buyers can move to phase 2 (economics), and later phase 3 (replace the whole fleet - volume availability).

It's also my guess that this is closer to a year or 2, than a month or 2, worth of evaluation. Part of the evaluation will be a truck that gets abused / driven to the upper limit of what that fleet expects of their vehicles. Stuff you can't learn in a week or a month of driving test routes, but stuff you learn over a year or 2 of driving it hard, different weather conditions, stuff breaking, routine maintenance, unexpected repairs; living with it.


My own view of things, which seems to largely be my own :), is what I'd like to see is for Tesla to partner with an existing manufacturer of trucks. Tesla gets that division that knows how to handle parts & service, has a training organization, has manufacturing set up to handle the large number of different configurations that get small build numbers, and Tesla doesn't have to hire and develop all of that itself.

The manufacturer gets an awesome drive train and access to the battery quantity it needs for phase 3.

To make this work, Tesla needs to find a manufacturer that is ready to sell out on electric trucks. That manufacturer needs to convince Tesla that they want the electric future for commercial trucks at least as badly as Tesla, and maybe more (they just can't get the batteries to make it happen - the bottleneck for everybody).

The goal is to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport - with the right partner, I see this as the fastest path to widespread availability of electric commercial trucks.


My guess is that Tesla won't find that manufacturer, and thus will have no choice except to go it alone.
 
How Big Is the "Big Rig" Market Tesla and Nikola Are Chasing, Anyway?

Some info on the size of the semi market. Perhaps Tesla will want to pursue a regional production strategy to avoid shipping costs.

I might be more impressed if the writer seemed to know anything about his subject. He keeps writing about the number of semi-trailers sold, which has nothing to do with the tractors that Tesla, Nikola and Daimler-Freightliner are developing to pull semi-trailers. Since he knows so little about the rolling stock, I suspect his data are no good, since he clearly doesn't know what he is counting.
 
2018 ANNUAL FINANCIAL PROFILE OF AMERICA’S FRANCHISED NEW-TRUCK DEALERSHIPS
https://www.nada.org/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=21474846413

Parts availability (ship overnight ??) can existing diesel mechanics be easily trained/certified?

Can Tesla use RangerVans and Rangers to do parts swap? on electronic controllers/inverters/chargers??

A lot fewer parts??
- 4 motors all the same?
- modular battery packs all the same?

Will be interesting.
 
I'm not in the industry (so take these as guesses) - yes, I figure Tesla will need to build out a Semi service and support network. And thus - no, the existing service network can't service commercial trucks the way they need to be serviced.

Disruption might include ideas such as:

- Cab electronics bought seperately (like a car stereo)
- refuel at storage yard or loading docks
- get your mechanics trained/certified by Tesla -[Tesla supplies videos - or approves videos for training]
--- training for any class 8 repair people/companies/dealers
- Tesla Rangers trained to work on SEMI ??
- all parts delivered in 24 hours
- pick your tire/wheels/disc-brakes to match your existing fleet

You get the general idea. Think/plan from the fleet owners perspective -what would be simplest for him.
Tesla usual maximize for Value (not just Tesla profits)
 
My own view of things, which seems to largely be my own :), is what I'd like to see is for Tesla to partner with an existing manufacturer of trucks.

My guess is that Tesla won't find that manufacturer, and thus will have no choice except to go it alone.


My advice to Elon would be to merge/buy the last remaining independent Semi Tractor manufacture of any size in the USA.

Paccar maker of Peterbilt and Kenworth ~200k units per year ~30% US market share.

Serves worldwide market except Iran, Cuba, Syria, Sudan, and North Korea.

NASDAQ: PCAR current market cap is $25.76B ~27k employees

You get all the institutional knowledge and infrastructure you want and can overrule any legacy thinking you don't want. Bonus you can shut down ~30% ICE Semi capacity as needed.
 
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My advice to Elon would be to merge/buy the last remaining independent Semi Tractor manufacture of any size in the USA.

Paccar maker of Peterbilt and Kenworth ~200k units per year ~30% US market share.

Serves worldwide market except Iran, Cuba, Syria, Sudan, and North Korea.

NASDAQ: PCAR current market cap is $25.76B ~27k employees

You get all the institutional knowledge and infrastructure you want and can overrule any legacy thinking you don't want. Bonus you can shut down ~30% ICE Semi capacity as needed.

While that isn’t a bad strategy, you well know that isn’t how Tesla does things. They would rather make their own mistakes than deal with other people’s mistakes.
 
Buying a legacy trucking company would be no more helpful than buying a legacy car company for the auto business or a legacy energy company for the energy business.

With $27B Elon could build multiple Gigafactories that would dwarf the value of a soon-to-be obsolete truck company.

Tesla can cherry pick top talent from the trucking industry wherever Tesla needs industry knowledge, just as they have done with auto (Hochholdinger), chips (Keller, Bannon), artificial intelligence (Karpathy) and, oh that’s right, trucking (Guillen).

The economics of the Semi will give Tesla an awful lot of room to develop the rest of the business, as can be seen by the lineup of heavy hitters who have lined up to buy it.

I think the step from auto to Semi is much smaller than the leaps Tesla already has taken.
 
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