Tesla Semi

[jerry33]

I see this happening in phases:

1. Companies install solar, batteries, and megachargers at logistics centers, and use Teslas to deliver to retail stores within range.
2. Megachargers appear along important long-haul routes. Some may be private, others at truck stops.
3. Truck stops along most routes will offer Megacharging.

Because this is commercial transport, I think forward-looking companies will be willing to invest. Hence there may not be a single, Tesla-owned Megacharger network.

Yes, but right now there are zero, and based on the SC rollout it will be a year after the first one opens before there is one transcontinental route. Perhaps longer with the Megachargers because of the significant amount of land required. True they could mate up with truck stops--if the truckstops are willing.

 

[mblakele]

Yes, but right now there are zero, and based on the SC rollout it will be a year after the first one opens before there is one transcontinental route. Perhaps longer with the Megachargers because of the significant amount of land required. True they could mate up with truck stops--if the truckstops are willing.

That’s more or less my point. There’s a whole business in phase I that doesn’t involve transcontinental routes nor truck stops, and its construction inside logistics centers wouldn’t be visible to us.

 

[dc_h]

I still wonder if it makes sense for Tesla to build out its own trucking fleet first. For example, in the US it needs trucking services to deliver cars and parts to service centers and to provide some logistics between factories. So as they build out their own fleet, they can focus on charging and service infrastructure where Tesla most needs it. They can prove out a full end-to-end business model for future fleet buyers. Also if they can really get a 25c/mile advantage over conventional trucking, it would be nice to start realizing that opportunity internally. So once all that is in place, they have a solid starting point for selling to other fleet operators. They can build out supporting networks as needed.

The first 100 trucks would give them a chance to road test and build up the skeleton of the mega-charger network. The math for fuel savings should already be pretty solid in the business case, but confirming efficiency of the complete drive system, capabilities downhill and real world range and drive attributes and reliability. Having a few million miles before the first delivery and working out the real world operations issues will have drive savings for the customers and Tesla.

 

[MC3OZ]

If you're a fleet buyer of income producing assets and a manufacturer came to you with this service and support plan, would that sell you on whether you can keep your trucks producing income day in and day out?

I suppose it depends on how many loaners and where they're positioned to make that work. Presumably they're all max range / capability loaners, else you'd need to have even more loaners staged. I don't know the degree to which truck maintenance and repair is expected to be a today-or-tomorrow thing.

It may also be the case that distribution hubs with many trucks coming and going routinely have an extra truck or three that isn't scheduled for exactly these problems - take the extra and the truck that needs repair goes in for the repair.

Expertise in repairing a diesel semi probably isn't of much use...

Any battery pack / motor failure is a swap out... one theory I have is 4 separate packs one for each motor..

Service expertise is probably highly Tesla specific, Telsa will have their own fleet of trucks and some of these can serve as loaners...

So the best option is door-to-door loaner delivery/mobile service with Tesla guaranteeing a replacement truck within 24 hours... if mobile service can;t fix the problem..

For the actual truck service centres Telsa is better off with a handful of specialist truck repair centres probably no more than 1-2 per US state.

What semis will commonly need is new tires, anyone can do that...

 

[MC3OZ]

The first 100 trucks would give them a chance to road test and build up the skeleton of the mega-charger network. The math for fuel savings should already be pretty solid in the business case, but confirming efficiency of the complete drive system, capabilities downhill and real world range and drive attributes and reliability. Having a few million miles before the first delivery and working out the real world operations issues will have drive savings for the customers and Tesla.

My hunch is Tesla might take the first 2-3 months of production, while it is ramping and while early build issues are being resolved.

That might be up to 1,000 trucks, one reason for the high number is Tesla trucks will also serve as loaners.

Short term Tesla can probably backstop the use of their trucks as loaners by keeping some of their existing fleet of diesel trucks and by keeping some drivers skills current.. Longer term, they are going to need to retire the diesel trucks and have a larger fleet of loaners..

Only 1-2 Megachargers need to be built for this install proof of ramp phase, Tesla internal use..

IMO there is a synergy between Megachargers and Megapacks, each full Megapack probably supports fast charging of 3-4 Semis... on that basis Megchagers can be installed relatively quickly

I also expect to see Megchargers with Megapacks near solar farms, Tesla might simply enter into a contract with an existing solar farm, they might run a dedicated transmission link from the Solar farm to the Megacharger site.

These larger solar backed Megacharger sites, might have a lounge, showers, food hall, and service centre, be a mobile service base, loaners and truck towing/recovery might operate out of these centres... Obviously Tesla needs to make a substantial investment to build and operate these kind of sites, but initially they will not need that many of them...

 

[dc_h]

I would love to see Tesla put the trains out of business. The Chicago strangler, where trains can be stuck for weeks is BS. If Tesla can fleet 10-20 trucks cross country with self driving, they can beat the trains on time, cut inventory which immediately improves profit.

 

[jhm]

The real question is: Where are the Tesla Semis going to charge? They won't be able to go coast to coast without a charging network.

This is part of the point of starting with an internal fleet. Tesla wants to build out a network of megachargers for trucks. So get started along routes that a Tesla fleet would use most. You have to start somewhere.

Also the Semi can be charged at Superchargers. That might be okay at small scale, but as the fleet grows that won't be such a good option.

 

[jhm]

Yes, but right now there are zero, and based on the SC rollout it will be a year after the first one opens before there is one transcontinental route. Perhaps longer with the Megachargers because of the significant amount of land required. True they could mate up with truck stops--if the truckstops are willing.

I should hope that truck stops are interested. Trucks stops have a lot of services to offer truckers and travelers. I'd like to see Megachargers include some Superchargers too so that both trucks and autos can charge.

 

[mongo]

I should hope that truck stops are interested. Trucks stops have a lot of services to offer truckers and travelers. I'd like to see Megachargers include some Superchargers too so that both trucks and autos can charge.

Lots of surface area for solar too.

 

[adiggs]

I should hope that truck stops are interested. Trucks stops have a lot of services to offer truckers and travelers. I'd like to see Megachargers include some Superchargers too so that both trucks and autos can charge.

The new Tumwater, WA supercharger is at a Pilot truck stop. They have the Superchargers, and it's become one of my 2 favorite chargers (the other being Vancouver, WA). Besides the obvious stuff at a truck stop, the superchargers at Tumwater are right next to the gas pumps, and that means they are right next to the windshield washing equipment, which Pilot keeps well supplied and working well.

I think it's the only supercharger I've been at where that was true.


Superchargers at a truck stop, back where the trucks park, might also be helpful there for trucks parking for the rest / sleep period mandated by HOS rules. Those trucks can charge at the slower SC rate, confident that they'll have power for in-cabin comforts while they rest, as well as a fully recharged truck when it's time to get moving again. And probably a lower rate to charge at SC rates / use an SC port, rather than a MC slot / port.

 

[jhm]

The new Tumwater, WA supercharger is at a Pilot truck stop. They have the Superchargers, and it's become one of my 2 favorite chargers (the other being Vancouver, WA). Besides the obvious stuff at a truck stop, the superchargers at Tumwater are right next to the gas pumps, and that means they are right next to the windshield washing equipment, which Pilot keeps well supplied and working well.

I think it's the only supercharger I've been at where that was true.


Superchargers at a truck stop, back where the trucks park, might also be helpful there for trucks parking for the rest / sleep period mandated by HOS rules. Those trucks can charge at the slower SC rate, confident that they'll have power for in-cabin comforts while they rest, as well as a fully recharged truck when it's time to get moving again. And probably a lower rate to charge at SC rates / use an SC port, rather than a MC slot / port.

Nice. Let me speculate that Pilot Flying J is also interested in charging trucks (when the time comes).

Tumwater is about 200 miles to Canada. There is another Pilot Travel Center 148 miles south on I-5 in Brooks, OR. Another one is 272 south of Tumwater in Oakland, OR. Then Central Point, OR, is 379 mile south of Tumwater. Weed, CA, is 461 miles south.

So first pass, Tesla and Pilot could set up Megachargers in Tumwater, Brooks, and Weed, Fremont. These are 272, 189, 300 miles apart. The Semi with 500 miles of range should be able to span these. Later Brooks and Central Point could be added later. But for a start, Tesla could truck vehicles from Fremont up through Seattle with adding just 3 Megachargers. Fremont to Reno is probably already covered. So most of the population in northern CA, OR, WA and BC could be served. Likewise 2 more Megacharger stations south of Fremont could open up delivery to most of southern CA.

Part of what makes this work for Tesla is that the destinations, Tesla Delivery Centers, all have Superchargers to help top off charging, if needed. So Tesla can get away with a sparse Megacharger network.

Note that many of the Pilot Travel Centers have premium parking for overnight stays. Lower power charging is a nice amenity to add to that and can be used to do load balancing to smooth out peaks across all charger load at the truck stop.

 

[MC3OZ]

Anyone else think Tesla might have pre-booking of Megacharger sessions?

I imagine a typical large site as 10 pre-booked stalls, 2 casual stalls. and 50 Supercharger stalls.

Pre-booking means you have a stall reserved with your electricity already in a battery, full charge rate and charge time are guaranteed.
There needs to be a time interval between pre-bookings to allow for later arrival, say 15 mins.. trucks get 20 mins grace on their booking otherwise they revert to casual. (So you might start 5 mins late)

In busy times causal might have a queue, you might be able to hook up 4 Superchargers as an alternative, in quiet times a causal can use one of the pre-booked stalls.

A lot of transport follows regular schedules, or a trip schedule is known well in advance, in most cases it is at least known 24 hours in advance.

If something goes wrong, a number of Megacharger sessions need to be re-booked, but when there is contention, Tesla can suggest alternatives in advance...Truck driver can usually be informed well in advance of any unexpected problems..

A sudden unexpected grid outage doesn't stop pre-booked sessions..

If this system existed, I think most truck drivers would pre-book, they are used to driving to a schedule and typically know the route..

 

[Brando]

side notes:
duty cycles vary - long distant and city deliveries or fixed routes
weight varies - paper products; canned goods; steel; plastics
deliveries to retail and factories often by routes with small variations

Much charging can take place at the shipping dock and the storage yard.
Selling electrons small margins compare to fossil fuels - I suspect.

 

[MC3OZ]

Selling electrons small margins compare to fossil fuels - I suspect.

IMO 7 cents per kWh is only likely to profitable, if a deal is struck with a solar farm, or Tesla builds a solar farm..

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf

Being pessimistic LCOE around $33 per MWh for Solar.. or 3.3 cents per kWh...

Tesla can install their own solar in some locations...

Throw in Supercharging at 7-10 cents per kWh with a lounge etc, may drivers will use these sites... due to the combination or cost, convenience and amenity.

Like Supercharging, I think Megacharging can eventually be profitable enough to pay for the expansion of Megacharging, and in the long run make a useful contribution to offsetting operational costs.

Keep in mind these solar farm sites (Tesla owned or contracted) should also have a grid connection and a big battery, they can also make money providing grid electrcity, but mostly less than 7 cents per kWh...

Where Tesla contracts grid electricity, I'm expecting more like break-even, even with using the battery to time-shift some electricity for later resale.

For this reason I mostly take Elon's "Running on Sunshine" quote fairly seriously..

 

[BioSehnsucht]

For various reasons I suspect that while they might offer a way to "slow charge" from a supercharger, they won't offer their mult-supercharger to Semi adapter to customers. For one thing, you don't want to have a bunch of glorified extension cables randomly laying about in whatever conditions, plus blocking multiple SC stalls, etc. Hell even just using a single stall would likely block several, without some kind of extension.

I think what will most likely happen is that for "slow" charging (i.e. overnight rest stop) they have similar in concept to the urban superchargers, but still dedicated to Semis, rather than allowing the Semis to mix with the regular sized vehicles. The actual backend hardware can be Supercharger v3 or whatever, but they locations would be spaced differently to accomdate the Semis and possibly a dedicated connector (i.e. a megacharger connector housing but with only one power pair wired up, with the rest of the housing being there to ensure that there's nothing exposed).

Alternatively could still be using a SC connector, which would mean two kinds of connectors on the Semi (which while it would drive up cost, it would be a rounding error), in which case regular vehicles can use the Semi locations too, they may just be less conveniently placed (as trucker parking is typically out of the way compared to services for regular vehicles). Perhaps a slightly modified connector that works on Semi and regular vehicles, but the normal SC connector won't fit, to prevent anyone from trying to be clever and shoehorn their Semi into a regular SC location.

 

[MC3OZ]

For various reasons I suspect that while they might offer a way to "slow charge" from a supercharger, they won't offer their mult-supercharger to Semi adapter to customers.

The are probably more likely to add a single Megacharger stall to many Super charger sites.... eventually...

That solution is more for emergencies, when the truck can't make it to the main Megacharger station.....so perhaps it will be slower..

It might also be a minor inconvenience for Supercharger users, but should be a rare event..

But I think you are right about the cables...they don't want a bunch of them lying around... even when it only happens rarely...

I also think you are right about slower charging at overnight rest stops.. they may be able to have an adaptor for a SC V3 cable that plugs into a Megacaharger port..

So if a truck carries that adaptor they can change at SC V3 speeds that is 1/4 of normal Megacharging speeds, but handy in emergencies..or for overnight..

In Australia most of our SCs have 2 cables, for 2 different changing port types, that is another viable option..
They only need a Megacharger compatible cable on one or 2 stalls.

 

[Christine69420]

In Europe it's a common sight that trucks flock to truck stops and also common rest stops and laybys over the weekend since they are blocked from driving on many roads on sundays. And I guess they combine that with the mandatory weekly rest which must be 45+ hours in length.

So plenty of slow chargers on these places would be useful in the future when most trucks are EVs.

 

[Brando]

SuperCharger hardware
cost of land (purchase, lease, rent, property taxes)
Electric costs from grid and/or solar panels
Management of charging site (garbage clean up, sweeping, etc)
Payment system (seems Tesla already has that taken care of, right?)
Maintenance/repair of SuperCharger (future upgrades?)
30 min./vehicle = 16 to 24 customers per day?

Making money selling electrons not an easy business. Anyone have any numbers to suggest otherwise?
You owners could tell us spectators how much on average you pay at a SuperCharger - when you pay.

Interesting to watch EU and see if petrol stations will install anything above Level 2.

 

[MC3OZ]

You owners could tell us spectators how much on average you pay at a SuperCharger - when you pay.

On average probably $10 (AUD) a charge when I use Superchargers that is on holiday road trips as I normally charge at home.
So on a road trip probably and average of $20 per day,... perhaps for 6-7 days but only a few times a year.. other people might do more road trips...when I was younger I did driving trips most weekends..

Look at current gas stations (we call them service stations) a lot of money is made sell things in a small store rather than selling fuel.

As sales of petrol decline, I think petrol stations will increasingly add fast charging where they can do it... one I know of has 2 sides, let's call them East and West.. adding fast charging on the East side, while keeping petrol on the West should be relatively easy... but would still be a fairly costly upgrade.

I think the mark up for profitable fast charging is around 10-20 cents per kWh, meaning about 50-100 cents profit on each charge, while that is low you hope customers buy something in the shop.

Finally I think some petrol stations could be redeveloped, with parking and fast charging at street level, a store and cafe above that and housing or offices above... if the real estate is well located, this development can be worthwhile, they can add in basement parking for residents.

The challenge is you need more land for EV fast charging as customers stay longer, but that is more opportunity to sell them something in the cafe/store..

There are also solutions like this...
JET Charge and CEFC pave the way to cheaper charging for electric vehicles - Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC)

IMO they will not actually be able to provide free electricity, but they were intending to do it via leveraging the battery. Batteries will be at most fast charging stations, and can make some incremental income...

 

[RobStark]

Selling electrons small margins compare to fossil fuels - I suspect.

Gas stations don't make money selling gas but make money in the mini-mart.

Truck stations don't make money selling diesel but amenities. Food, Showers and what not .