TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC
  1. TMC is currently READ ONLY.
    Click here for more info.

Tesla Semi

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jul 25, 2016.

  1. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2017
    Messages:
    12,857
    Location:
    Michigan
    In which case, I'd expect a triaxle trailer, placards, or some other indication.


    Awesome, thanks for finding that.
    Puts the empty weight at around 36k for tractor and trailer.
     
  2. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2016
    Messages:
    14,925
    Location:
    Oregon
    A lot of rumor/information on the Tesla Semi in this Tweet thread: https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1357393123605889026

    Some of the high points:
    • Expected to produce ~2,500 this year, ~10,000 in 2022, and then 25k/year after that.
    • Official production expected to start in August.
    • Sleeper variant to start in mid-2021. (Must be design/unveiling.)
    I think a lot of the information fits with what was said on the conference call. (Expect to see more Semis soon, and first deliveries to be end of this year.)
     
    • Like x 5
    • Informative x 2
  3. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    12,062
    Location:
    New Mexico
    • Disagree x 4
  4. Brando

    Brando Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2016
    Messages:
    2,841
    Location:
    Bainbridge Island, WA
    Truck sales in the U.S. - Class 3-8 2011-2019 | Statista
    <quote>
    U.S. sales of most classes of medium and heavy trucks have been increasing year-on-year since 2009, with the notable exception of class 8 heavy trucks, which have fallen sharply in recent years; in 2017 a total of 192,000 class 8 trucks were sold in the U.S., compared to the 249,000 sold in 2015. In 2019, class 8 trucks sales recovered, with 276,000 units sold.

    Commercial vehicle classifications

    Commercial motor vehicles in the United States are divided into eight different classes based on weight. Light duty trucks are included in classes 1 and 2, medium duty trucks in classes 3 to 6, and heavy trucks in classes 7 and 8. The weight range for each class is not consistent – for example class 3 includes trucks between 10,001 and 14,000 pounds, class 5 is between 16,001 and 19,500 pounds, and class 7 is between 26,001 and 33,000 pounds. Sales for all truck classes – including Class 8 – are expected to increase over the short term.

    Global commercial vehicle market

    Over the last decade Chinese demand for commercial vehicles has overtaken that of the United States. Based on projections, sales of trucks over 15 tons (class 8) are three to four times higher in China than in the United States, while sales of trucks between 6 and 15 tons (roughly classes 4 to 7) are around 50 percent higher. However, commercial vehicle production in the U.S. is higher than in China, with the 8.37 million trucks produced in the U.S. in 2019 being around twice the Chinese production numbers of that year. When considering only heavy trucks though, production is much higher in the Asia-Pacific region than in North America. This is likely due to multiple major vehicle-producing countries, such as Japan, China, Thailand and India, being located in the region.
    </quote>

    ,
     
    • Like x 3
    • Helpful x 2
  5. Big Earl

    Big Earl bnkwupt

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2017
    Messages:
    4,886
    Location:
    Springfield, VA
    The term commercial is a broad category, as @Brando points out above. The Tesla Semi is a class 8 truck.

    Tesla is looking to capture 10% of the US market within just a few years. As Elon has pointed out repeatedly in recent months, the main issue is battery cell supply.
     
    • Informative x 2
    • Like x 2
  6. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    12,062
    Location:
    New Mexico
    I'll give you two guesses for the USA annual class 8 semi production.
    And then I'll ask you to consider whether the Semi *has* to be a class 8
     
  7. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2017
    Messages:
    12,857
    Location:
    Michigan
    #2207 mongo, Feb 4, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2021
    2019 class 8 sales: 276k
    Truck sales in the U.S. - Class 3-8 2011-2019 | Statista

    Semi makes no sense for class 7 (2019 sales of 66k) due to being massively overkill. Class 7 only goes up to 33k pounds. Maybe with a single drive axle? Or dual single motor with differentials?
    202002_Infographic_TruckClassifications_v3.png
    Combined class 4-7 sales in 2019 were 251k.
    Class 3 (non heavy duty 10k-14k gvwr) was 327k.

    Edit: 2019 production in US was around 300k. 2020, much less.Class 8 truck production could fall to less than half of 2019 - FreightWaves
     
    • Informative x 3
    • Like x 3
  8. nativewolf

    nativewolf Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2015
    Messages:
    644
    Location:
    viena va United States
    A lot of 4-6 are work pickups. F350-550. Farm trucks, masonry trucks, etc. Cybertruck may poach a few of these sales.
     
    • Like x 2
  9. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    10,178
    Location:
    City of Champions, USA
  10. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2016
    Messages:
    14,925
    Location:
    Oregon
    • Like x 3
    • Funny x 2
  11. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    10,178
    Location:
    City of Champions, USA
    If Jeff placed an order for 100s of BYD BEV Semis I am sure BYD would set up a production line in California in addition to municipal buses and specialty heavy BEVs.

    You have to place orders sometimes to get the ball rolling like they did with Rivian panel vans. Daimler trucks can deliver BEV Semis.

    They could have also placed orders for Tesla Semis.
     
  12. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2016
    Messages:
    14,925
    Location:
    Oregon
    But does BYD even offer Class 8 Semis with decent range?
     
  13. Brando

    Brando Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2016
    Messages:
    2,841
    Location:
    Bainbridge Island, WA
    Below post informative - details of SEMI market
    Tesla Semi
     
    • Informative x 1
  14. Brando

    Brando Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2016
    Messages:
    2,841
    Location:
    Bainbridge Island, WA
    #2214 Brando, Feb 8, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2021
    Who better than Amazon to know about battery supply problems.

    Diesel should have been replaced by Natural Gas long ago - at least in the 1990s. Seattle had pilot program and was set to replace Diesel Buses with Natural Gas and then magically Diesel Buses showed up. Should have done the Ferry boats too. Corruption runs deep - money talks. We even have oil wells in Washington State and I heard a few in Alaska.

    Oil industry profits ~ $175 billion per day - how much could you spend to keep that income stream going?
    and they have/do.
     
    • Like x 1
  15. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    4,172
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    Is that $175B/day profit, or revenue? I'm finding that number hard to believe as profit. Especially when the US O&G companies as a group are borrowing more than they're earning.
     
  16. Brando

    Brando Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2016
    Messages:
    2,841
    Location:
    Bainbridge Island, WA
    #2216 Brando, Feb 12, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2021
    watch the video - about +9 min.

    internet searching your friend - you can find printed version of Jack opinion
     
  17. eisa01

    eisa01 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2014
    Messages:
    30
    Location:
    Oslo, Norway
    I hope they release the Semi soon, even in small quantities

    There's still a lot of people that believe hydrogen is the only viable option for trucks, so actually demonstrating electric heavy duty trucks has a value of itself to the public debate. It will enable an acceleration of the energy transition!
     
    • Like x 5
  18. Doggydogworld

    Doggydogworld Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2019
    Messages:
    1,504
    Location:
    Texas
    It's neither, just another fabrication. 100m bbl/day * $50/bbl avg price = $5 billion per day total revenue. The vast majority of that revenue goes to governments and workers.
     
    • Like x 1
  19. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    4,172
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    #2219 adiggs, Feb 13, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2021
    My duckduckgo fu is clearly inferior to yours. A quick search and the best I can find is:
    Revealed: big oil's profits since 1990 total nearly $2tn

    This has the 4 oil majors at $2T profit over 3 decades. My math puts that at:
    2000B/30 years = 67B/year / 365 days = 180M/day, give or take.

    That's close enough to the $175B / day that it sort of looks like the unit of measure was messed up (billions vs. millions).


    I realize that the bulk of oil & gas extraction happens in national oil companies. I don't believe that it is 1000x, nor do I believe that the NOCs are more efficient and profitable than the oil majors.


    I'll go watch the video and see if I can find a source for this claim.


    I make $175B/day * 365 days/year as 63.8T. We'll round that up to $64T for a round number.

    As 1 point of comparison, this site:
    https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-01/gdp4q20_adv.pdf

    Has US GDP at $21.5T, or about 1/3rd of claimed oil industry profits.


    If we convert that profit level to a revenue figure, and use 20% net profit margin (I don't know of any businesses that achieve 20% net profit, but what the heck), then I get to $64T * 5 or $320T in revenue.

    That revenue level is around 15x US GDP.


    For $175B/day profit to be true, it sort of sounds like every $ of worldwide GDP is used to buy oil. And probably a lot more - I haven't looked for a worldwide GDP number, but I sort of doubt that worldwide GDP is another 14 units of US GDP, but I could be wrong about that.


    EDIT to add:
    A search on "oil and gas industry size" gets me to this:
    What Percentage of the Global Economy Is the Oil and Gas Drilling Sector?

    It has the O&G industry - upstream, midstream, and downstream - at $3.3T in 2019 vs. worldwide GDP at $86T, putting the industry at ~4%. That doesn't address profit level, but if we go with that 20% net profit number again (my made up number - I know that my previous investment in a midstream company was nowhere close to 20% profit) that gets to about $660B profit in 2019 for the year.
     
    • Like x 4
  20. Brando

    Brando Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2016
    Messages:
    2,841
    Location:
    Bainbridge Island, WA
    #2220 Brando, Feb 13, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2021
    SORRY for wasted time - - - $2.75 billion /day that is world wide Revenue. Sadly, you should verify. I have proven how bad my memory actually is.

    Jack Richard original post [I didn't find and mistakenly posted : "Now You Know" review of Jacks Richard post
    The Tesla Conspiracy - was Jack Rickard shot down in broad daylight?
    August 2019 Original blog: The Tesla Conspiracy... or Am I a Dead Whistleblower? - EVTV Motor Verks
    Jack's youtube.com response to the above post done about 2 weeks later.

    ~20 min. new thoughts and more general views from Jack's +50 years of investing. Including GM bankruptcy.
    Then he replays Zac & Jesse youtube video clip. I found all three clips informative.

    PS- my slow response blamed on local snow storm and power outage - hope you find kindness to forgive. This is Aug 2019 old news, but it does explain the 2020 Tesla stock rise AND why others will find problems following Tesla - in spite of Tesla source patents
     
    • Like x 1

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC