In which case, I'd expect a triaxle trailer, placards, or some other indication. Awesome, thanks for finding that. Puts the empty weight at around 36k for tractor and trailer.
A lot of rumor/information on the Tesla Semi in this Tweet thread: https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1357393123605889026 Some of the high points: Expected to produce ~2,500 this year, ~10,000 in 2022, and then 25k/year after that. Official production expected to start in August. Sleeper variant to start in mid-2021. (Must be design/unveiling.) I think a lot of the information fits with what was said on the conference call. (Expect to see more Semis soon, and first deliveries to be end of this year.)
U.S. commercial vehicle production | Statista 5 - 10 million commercial trucks produced annually in the USA I think you can add another digit to the rumor
Truck sales in the U.S. - Class 3-8 2011-2019 | Statista <quote> U.S. sales of most classes of medium and heavy trucks have been increasing year-on-year since 2009, with the notable exception of class 8 heavy trucks, which have fallen sharply in recent years; in 2017 a total of 192,000 class 8 trucks were sold in the U.S., compared to the 249,000 sold in 2015. In 2019, class 8 trucks sales recovered, with 276,000 units sold. Commercial vehicle classifications Commercial motor vehicles in the United States are divided into eight different classes based on weight. Light duty trucks are included in classes 1 and 2, medium duty trucks in classes 3 to 6, and heavy trucks in classes 7 and 8. The weight range for each class is not consistent – for example class 3 includes trucks between 10,001 and 14,000 pounds, class 5 is between 16,001 and 19,500 pounds, and class 7 is between 26,001 and 33,000 pounds. Sales for all truck classes – including Class 8 – are expected to increase over the short term. Global commercial vehicle market Over the last decade Chinese demand for commercial vehicles has overtaken that of the United States. Based on projections, sales of trucks over 15 tons (class 8) are three to four times higher in China than in the United States, while sales of trucks between 6 and 15 tons (roughly classes 4 to 7) are around 50 percent higher. However, commercial vehicle production in the U.S. is higher than in China, with the 8.37 million trucks produced in the U.S. in 2019 being around twice the Chinese production numbers of that year. When considering only heavy trucks though, production is much higher in the Asia-Pacific region than in North America. This is likely due to multiple major vehicle-producing countries, such as Japan, China, Thailand and India, being located in the region. </quote> ,
The term commercial is a broad category, as @Brando points out above. The Tesla Semi is a class 8 truck. Tesla is looking to capture 10% of the US market within just a few years. As Elon has pointed out repeatedly in recent months, the main issue is battery cell supply.
I'll give you two guesses for the USA annual class 8 semi production. And then I'll ask you to consider whether the Semi *has* to be a class 8
2019 class 8 sales: 276k Truck sales in the U.S. - Class 3-8 2011-2019 | Statista Semi makes no sense for class 7 (2019 sales of 66k) due to being massively overkill. Class 7 only goes up to 33k pounds. Maybe with a single drive axle? Or dual single motor with differentials? Combined class 4-7 sales in 2019 were 251k. Class 3 (non heavy duty 10k-14k gvwr) was 327k. Edit: 2019 production in US was around 300k. 2020, much less.Class 8 truck production could fall to less than half of 2019 - FreightWaves
A lot of 4-6 are work pickups. F350-550. Farm trucks, masonry trucks, etc. Cybertruck may poach a few of these sales.
I find it peculiar Bezos is ordering natural gas Semis rather than BEV Semis. Exclusive: Amazon orders hundreds of trucks that run on natural gas
If Jeff placed an order for 100s of BYD BEV Semis I am sure BYD would set up a production line in California in addition to municipal buses and specialty heavy BEVs. You have to place orders sometimes to get the ball rolling like they did with Rivian panel vans. Daimler trucks can deliver BEV Semis. They could have also placed orders for Tesla Semis.
Who better than Amazon to know about battery supply problems. Diesel should have been replaced by Natural Gas long ago - at least in the 1990s. Seattle had pilot program and was set to replace Diesel Buses with Natural Gas and then magically Diesel Buses showed up. Should have done the Ferry boats too. Corruption runs deep - money talks. We even have oil wells in Washington State and I heard a few in Alaska. Oil industry profits ~ $175 billion per day - how much could you spend to keep that income stream going? and they have/do.
Is that $175B/day profit, or revenue? I'm finding that number hard to believe as profit. Especially when the US O&G companies as a group are borrowing more than they're earning.
watch the video - about +9 min. internet searching your friend - you can find printed version of Jack opinion
I hope they release the Semi soon, even in small quantities There's still a lot of people that believe hydrogen is the only viable option for trucks, so actually demonstrating electric heavy duty trucks has a value of itself to the public debate. It will enable an acceleration of the energy transition!
It's neither, just another fabrication. 100m bbl/day * $50/bbl avg price = $5 billion per day total revenue. The vast majority of that revenue goes to governments and workers.
My duckduckgo fu is clearly inferior to yours. A quick search and the best I can find is: Revealed: big oil's profits since 1990 total nearly $2tn This has the 4 oil majors at $2T profit over 3 decades. My math puts that at: 2000B/30 years = 67B/year / 365 days = 180M/day, give or take. That's close enough to the $175B / day that it sort of looks like the unit of measure was messed up (billions vs. millions). I realize that the bulk of oil & gas extraction happens in national oil companies. I don't believe that it is 1000x, nor do I believe that the NOCs are more efficient and profitable than the oil majors. I'll go watch the video and see if I can find a source for this claim. I make $175B/day * 365 days/year as 63.8T. We'll round that up to $64T for a round number. As 1 point of comparison, this site: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-01/gdp4q20_adv.pdf Has US GDP at $21.5T, or about 1/3rd of claimed oil industry profits. If we convert that profit level to a revenue figure, and use 20% net profit margin (I don't know of any businesses that achieve 20% net profit, but what the heck), then I get to $64T * 5 or $320T in revenue. That revenue level is around 15x US GDP. For $175B/day profit to be true, it sort of sounds like every $ of worldwide GDP is used to buy oil. And probably a lot more - I haven't looked for a worldwide GDP number, but I sort of doubt that worldwide GDP is another 14 units of US GDP, but I could be wrong about that. EDIT to add: A search on "oil and gas industry size" gets me to this: What Percentage of the Global Economy Is the Oil and Gas Drilling Sector? It has the O&G industry - upstream, midstream, and downstream - at $3.3T in 2019 vs. worldwide GDP at $86T, putting the industry at ~4%. That doesn't address profit level, but if we go with that 20% net profit number again (my made up number - I know that my previous investment in a midstream company was nowhere close to 20% profit) that gets to about $660B profit in 2019 for the year.
SORRY for wasted time - - - $2.75 billion /day that is world wide Revenue. Sadly, you should verify. I have proven how bad my memory actually is. Jack Richard original post [I didn't find and mistakenly posted : "Now You Know" review of Jacks Richard post The Tesla Conspiracy - was Jack Rickard shot down in broad daylight? August 2019 Original blog: The Tesla Conspiracy... or Am I a Dead Whistleblower? - EVTV Motor Verks Jack's youtube.com response to the above post done about 2 weeks later. ~20 min. new thoughts and more general views from Jack's +50 years of investing. Including GM bankruptcy. Then he replays Zac & Jesse youtube video clip. I found all three clips informative. PS- my slow response blamed on local snow storm and power outage - hope you find kindness to forgive. This is Aug 2019 old news, but it does explain the 2020 Tesla stock rise AND why others will find problems following Tesla - in spite of Tesla source patents