Tesla Semi

[jhm]

I would expect that one fleet operator Tesla is working with is Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart is a longstanding customer of SolarCity and one of the largest commercial owner of solar systems. Naturally, Wal-Mart will want to extend this approach of installing solar and batteries to cut operating costs to their trucking fleet.

Does anyone have an idea of how much fuel Wal-Mart buys at truckstops vs what they pump at their own facilities? When I consider their scale as well as the density of their logistical network, I'd be surprized if they bought as much as 10% of their fuel at retail prices. So I think this gives us some perspective on how they view infrastructure. They will build out infrastructure if it will save them operational expence. Moreover, an electric fleet is a huge hedge against rising fuel costs, even at wholesale prices.

Translate this to charging. Even if there were stores so far from hubs that they needed Supercharging along the way. They could locate that at other stores along the way. Now once they take the step of having commercial scale Supercharging at a store, what would prevent them from also providing auto Supercharging as well? Being able to manage the high power demands of one sets them up for providing it for the other. Basically you balance peak load in the front with auto charging and peak load in the back with truck charging. So am upshot of working with a retailer on charging their trucking fleet is opening up locations to offer public charging as well.

 

[neroden]

OK. My new (conservative) working model is that Tesla will likely build a single factory to make 100K semis per year for the US market (small enough to avoid swamping the US market) at a price of $115,000 (which looks like a reasonable "midrange" price). Maybe another same-size factory for the European market. The factories will probably be designed for higher production capacity, but it's silly to produce more than total world semi sales per year (that's a bit too optimistic, especially since Tesla semis will last longer than fuel semis).

 

[SmartElectric]

My bet : Cost of semi will be $250K, but it won't be something a customer pays entirely up front for, there will be a continuing component, just like a lease is structured, with vastly reduced "fuel" cost component part of the value add so the lease can be financed at a rate lower than existing ICE competitors.

$150K to cover the battery production for 600 kWh storage in vehicle
$50K to cover the vehicle production
$50K devoted to charging build out (just like how $2K was charged for every early Model S 60 to enable supercharging)

Sales will be structured to organise for delivery into fleets.
Fleet will partner with Tesla on charging rollout.

Partner with key fleets (Walmart is an excellent mention, so are parcel fleets).

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

I thought that several freight companies were already inside the Tesla Tent. Lets pick "peter-built" and say that PB will adjust their truck design to incorporate the Tesla design - Tesla makes the skate, and PB builds the rest - and produces a semi product. This truck gets all the street cred of PB, and the fleet owner gets the benefits of EV. Tesla does not have to reinvent the wheel, or windshield, or many other truck parts, just the skate. And they can sell the skate to many semi builders - PB, freighter, United Parcel,Wall-mart. They dont need to compete, but to partner with each contributing their skill set.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I thought that several freight companies were already inside the Tesla Tent. Lets pick "peter-built" and say that PB will adjust their truck design to incorporate the Tesla design - Tesla makes the skate, and PB builds the rest - and produces a semi product. This truck gets all the street cred of PB, and the fleet owner gets the benefits of EV. Tesla does not have to reinvent the wheel, or windshield, or many other truck parts, just the skate. And they can sell the skate to many semi builders - PB, freighter, United Parcel,Wall-mart. They dont need to compete, but to partner with each contributing their skill set.

The Curious Case of Jerome Guillen, Tesla Semi Trucks, & Nikola One

Jerome Guillen apparently has a lot of experience with Semi Trucks:

Quote:

Given Elon’s statement that Jerome led Daimler’s “most successful semi truck program ever,” one would think electrified Tesla semi trucks are going to blow the competition out of the water, but we’ll have to wait to see.

End quote.

 

[haid]

Okay here is my wacky speculation as to the Tesla Semi. (based on absolutely nothing)

1) The Semi will have 3 components, not 2. A container (no wheels), which is a standard shipping container. The skateboard (battery, powered wheels, and covering for the container for aerodynamics). The cab (little more than a car with a weird shape).
2) The skateboard will have enough power to go 3K miles (no stops during delivery)
3) There will be a tether that connects the skateboard to the cab in front for telemetry, control, and will power the cab on long hauls
4) The coast to coast demonstration of autonomous driving (no human touching the controls) will be the Tesla Semi. It will not stop for supercharging.
5) Something similar to summon/self-park will allow the cab to command the skateboard to come hither and join and park itself in bay 3
6) Skateboards will charge up over night at/near the destination
7) A single cab will be able to lead a convoy of skateboards. This may not be in version 1 (regulations need to change?).
8) Longer term, the cab will not be needed as autonomous driving becomes acceptable.

In other words, the Tesla Semi is a bridging technology allowing what amounts to a conductor to lead a train of highway boxcars across the country. And minor self-driving will be used to order around the boxcars in the parking lot.

 

[haid]

Lets take this thought experiment further, maybe the cab will have its own battery capable of going 3K miles. That way no physical tether is needed. Instead the tether is merely a wireless protocol.

This would allow other cars to join a convoy going across country. This goes beyond trucking. Why should dozens/hundreds of people have to pay attention for hours to go down the same stretch of road?

The master/slave relationship between the cab and the boxcars could be a 1/2 step towards autonomous driving that all Tesla cars could participate in.

And, quite frankly, it doesn't really have to be a protocol at all. Though it might be nice to tell others where you are going, so they can decide how long to "join". And it is not all that different than the current behavior of autopilot. Namely, to track and follow the vehicle in front of you.

 

[haid]

The Tesla Semi project is NOT about the cab, it is autopilot repackaged. Sure there will be a Cab. Sure there will be a trailer which is a skateboard that can carry a standard shipping container. And they can likely go long distances w/o recharge (1mWh anyone?).

My guess is that the trailer will not be physically attached to the cab. But instead trailers will use a tweak to autopilot. This will enable long trains of trailers to follow a single cab.

It will disrupt the trucking industry because a single cab can "haul" a few dozen trailers. This will enable trucking companies to have only a few long haul employees and the rest will be local distribution employees.

 

[electracity]

The Tesla Semi project is NOT about the cab, it is autopilot repackaged. Sure there will be a Cab. Sure there will be a trailer which is a skateboard that can carry a standard shipping container. And they can likely go long distances w/o recharge (1mWh anyone?).

My guess is that the trailer will not be physically attached to the cab. But instead trailers will use a tweak to autopilot. This will enable long trains of trailers to follow a single cab.

It will disrupt the trucking industry because a single cab can "haul" a few dozen trailers. This will enable trucking companies to have only a few long haul employees and the rest will be local distribution employees.

Shipping containers are sized to be hauled by an articulated vehicle, usually handled with eight tires at both ends. EV semis will use "super single" semi tires, but that is still two rows of tires at each end to handle the standard weight.

Autonomous EV heavy trucks will almost certainly maintain a separate propulsion unit that attaches to a trailer. Long term it may make sense to rethink standard container size, but that will not happen for a long time.

Also, there are far more trailers in the world than tractors. Designing trailers to self propel would not be economic. Trailers sit waiting to be loaded and unloaded. Smaller companies in particular may spend a week loading a trailer with production.

 

[haid]

there are far more trailers in the world than tractors. Designing trailers to self propel would not be economic. Trailers sit waiting to be loaded and unloaded. Smaller companies in particular may spend a week loading a trailer with production.

A simple shipping container costs less than $2K http://kkcontainer.com/how-much-does-shipping-container-cost/ whereas tractors cost a couple of hundred thousand. A skateboard could recharge while the container is being loaded/unloaded. Or if the container is to stay for weeks, no problem, put a different container on the skateboard. Why is it okay to spend so much for a tractor, but not for a skateboard? Tractors pull one or two trailers at a time.

So the real difference between spending on the tractor vs a skateboard (that carries a container) is the human required for the tractor. A driver in a Tesla Semi cab could lead a few dozen skateboard/container combos down the road at a time. It is disruptive because it requires less driver labor.

 

[dc_h]

I think a swapping process to insert battery packs into containers seems simple. You could build the tractor with 200-500 miles and add battery packs to the container based on need. Anything over 1000 miles can use hot swapping stations, which would not need to be as numerous as charging stations.

 

[SageBrush]

OK. My new (conservative) working model is that Tesla will likely build a single factory to make 100K semis per year for the US market (small enough to avoid swamping the US market) at a price of $115,000

Are you missing a zero, or is this semi setting up to be the next cultural "hummer" ?

 

[neroden]

Are you missing a zero, or is this semi setting up to be the next cultural "hummer" ?

Big rigs, big costs

Cost of a new tractor is estimated at $110K - $125K as of 2014. Dunno whether they've gone up. But I figure Tesla hits the same upfront price target as the diesel semis and then offers ludicrously high savings on fuel. If I'm wrong, Tesla makes more money, but this is my baseline.

There's a desire for customization on semis and setting a factory up to make a million a year would be... questionable. It would be likely to swamp the market.

 

[EinSV]

Big rigs, big costs

Cost of a new tractor is estimated at $110K - $125K as of 2014. Dunno whether they've gone up. But I figure Tesla hits the same upfront price target as the diesel semis and then offers ludicrously high savings on fuel. If I'm wrong, Tesla makes more money, but this is my baseline.

There's a desire for customization on semis and setting a factory up to make a million a year would be... questionable. It would be likely to swamp the market.

It is really hard to guess at pricing at this stage since there are so many variables, but I am having a hard time seeing how Tesla hits that price range. Either the batteries would have to be smaller than most are predicting, or battery costs would have to lower than the most optimistic estimates. Since the cost savings on electricity versus diesel should be enormous, and since diesel appears to cost operators something like 3-4X the cost of the cab (in the U.S.), Tesla should have room to charge much more than that and still create a compelling "win-win" situation due to energy savings.

 

[electracity]

Tesla doesn't need to hit the current price point of low end class 8 trucks. The purchase price is a small part of total operating cost. These trucks average fuel use is something like 20,000 gallons a year.

The annualized cost of running a large truck with driver is north of $200K a year. If you are Walmart there are many reasons to be interested. 1)De-risk future carbon pricing 2) Make their own fuel from the flat roofs of distribution centers and stores 3) Position for eliminating drivers, or at least have fewer driver. What are Walmart's annual diesel fuel cost? What is Walmart annual energy cost? These are the big interconnected costs that are the basis for justifying electrification

The cost of Tesla semi alone is not particularly important. The long term cost of the total transportation and energy infrastructure is what matters.

 

[neroden]

It is really hard to guess at pricing at this stage since there are so many variables, but I am having a hard time seeing how Tesla hits that price range. Either the batteries would have to be smaller than most are predicting, or battery costs would have to lower than the most optimistic estimates.

Hmm. At $100/kwh, 300 kwh, that's $30,000. 400 kwh would be $40,000. 600 kwh would be $60,000. After that they would have trouble fitting more batteries in, I think... Still leaves a lot of room for the cost of the rest of the vehicle (which is dirt simple)... honestly, it looks possible to me. Obviously higher profit margins would be better, but it looks possible.

Since the cost savings on electricity versus diesel should be enormous, and since diesel appears to cost operators something like 3-4X the cost of the cab (in the U.S.), Tesla should have room to charge much more than that and still create a compelling "win-win" situation due to energy savings.

Yeah, you're absolutely right. My estimate is probably a serious lowball of Tesla's profit potential here. I was trying to make a lowball estimate, though.

You know how in cars, people only judge by purchase price parity -- nobody pays attention to TCO. In semis, I'd *like* to think they would pay attention to TCO, but this is the estimate if they *don't* pay attention to TCO and Tesla has to match the upfront price (which might be the case for highly leveraged businesses or those with poor credit ratings).

If the buyers pay attention to TCO, Tesla gets to claim more of the profits from savings on fuel (and the buyers less).

 

[EinSV]

Hmm. At $100/kwh, 300 kwh, that's $30,000. 400 kwh would be $40,000. 600 kwh would be $60,000. After that they would have trouble fitting more batteries in, I think... Still leaves a lot of room for the cost of the rest of the vehicle (which is dirt simple)...


Yeah, you're absolutely right. My estimate is probably a serious lowball of Tesla's profit potential here. I was trying to make a lowball estimate, though.

You know how in cars, people only judge by purchase price parity -- nobody pays attention to TCO. In semis, I'd *like* to think they would pay attention to TCO, but this is the estimate if they *don't* pay attention to TCO and Tesla has to match the upfront price (which might be the case for highly leveraged businesses or those with poor credit ratings).

If the buyers pay attention to TCO, Tesla gets to claim more of the profits from savings on fuel (and the buyers less).

I don't have a great way to estimate the battery size -- I have seen ~500 kWh, 1MWh and even 2MWh mentioned in this thread to mimic various diesel options currently available.

If the battery is as small as 500-600kWh then I agree they may be able to pull off something close to the price range you mention. If that's the case, given the operators' fuel cost savings they should be able to sell essentially *all* of the Semis they can possibly make (assuming they figure out the charging network, which I have no doubt they will).

My hunch though is that they'll want a bigger battery to avoid too many recharging stops. This will obviously require a higher price for the cab but given that the bulk of the operating expense is in the fuel, not the cab, I would expect Tesla would have substantial demand even if the cab were twice the price of the comparable diesel or more.

Having said that, given the number of variables (battery size, charging strategy, price, costs, selling v. leasing, etc.) it is hard for me to put firm numbers on this until we hear more from Tesla. I do think the opportunity is enormous, and understand why from a dollars and cents perspective (in addition to the mission of accelerating sustainable transport) it makes sense to prioritize introduction of the Semi and have it next in line after the Model 3.

 

[EinSV]

I don't have a great way to estimate the battery size -- I have seen ~500 kWh, 1MWh and even 2MWh mentioned in this thread to mimic various diesel options currently available.

If the battery is as small as 500-600kWh then I agree they may be able to pull off something close to the price range you mention. If that's the case, given the operators' fuel cost savings they should be able to sell essentially *all* of the Semis they can possibly make (assuming they figure out the charging network, which I have no doubt they will).

My hunch though is that they'll want a bigger battery to avoid too many recharging stops. This will obviously require a higher price for the cab but given that the bulk of the operating expense is in the fuel, not the cab, I would expect Tesla would have substantial demand even if the cab were twice the price of the comparable diesel or more.

Having said that, given the number of variables (battery size, charging strategy, price, costs, selling v. leasing, etc.) it is hard for me to put firm numbers on this until we hear more from Tesla. I do think the opportunity is enormous, and understand why from a dollars and cents perspective (in addition to the mission of accelerating sustainable transport) it makes sense to prioritize introduction of the Semi and have it next in line after the Model 3.

Courtesy of @wdolson in a different thread, insideEVs is estimating the Semi battery size at 1200kWh, with a 600 mile range. The Tesla Electric Semi Truck Will Use A Colossal Battery

If correct, that would likely put the Tesla Semi cab price substantially higher than diesel, so the financial upside to operators will probably come from fuel savings and eventually significantly reduced maintenance costs and benefits from autonomy.

 

[dhanson865]

So suppose Tesla ramps up to 10% of the heavy truck market, or 360k semis per year. This is a 470 kb/d reduction in diesel demand per year. This would be a huge impact on oil demand. To reduce gasoline demand by 470 kb/d would require about 15 million Model 3 in a market of about 70M passenger cars.

It's a good point, I just want to tack a thought on to this as a sanity check.

If the semi fleet reduces emissions/consumption on a scale of 100 to 1 then the individual semi only has to have a battery pack less than 100 times the capacity for that to be a no brainer business decision for Tesla to go ahead and make producing these a priority.

I think common sense says that the Semi won't have a battery pack 100 times the capacity of a model 3.

 

[jhm]

It's a good point, I just want to tack a thought on to this as a sanity check.

If the semi fleet reduces emissions/consumption on a scale of 100 to 1 then the individual semi only has to have a battery pack less than 100 times the capacity for that to be a no brainer business decision for Tesla to go ahead and make producing these a priority.

I think common sense says that the Semi won't have a battery pack 100 times the capacity of a model 3.

The relative consumption of fuel per vehicle is around 40 or 50 to 1 semi vs auto. But keep in mind that much of this is based on the frequency of cycling. An electric semi will be charged about 5 to 10 times per week, while a passenger auto with 259 mile range may get cycle 1 or 2 times per week. So the semi better gets cycled about 5 times more frequently. So if the semi battery is 10 times the size of the auto battery and cycled 5 times as frequently, this gets us to a 50 to 1 ratio.

Notice also if an auto gets put into fleet service, say a taxi or Uber car, then it too can get cycled up to 5 times as frequently as a typical private auto. This increased frequency also drives up the rate at which fuel is displaced.

Regardless of the vehicle, EVs in fleet service are a much bigger threat to oil demand than privately owned EVs.