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Tesla Semi

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Jul 25, 2016.

  1. -=buzz=-

    -=buzz=- Member

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    But the battery is currently the scarsest and most expensive part of the system.
    Even if the genset costs 20k (more likely 5k-10k) for tesla this is only an additional 100KWh. For MB, which seems to be at >340$/KWh if they hope to get to 220$/KWh by 2025, this would only be ~60KWh. This is still way too low for long haul.
    With a hybrid solution you can basically get into the market right now at a competitive price, without any of the range anxiety problems and immediately start reducing pollution. When the fully electric solution is feasible by 2020+ you can switch over with a refined Gen2 or Gen3 implementation with an already existing production line..
     
  2. landis

    landis Supporting Member

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    Makes much more sense to start production line for short haul tractors with less battery demand and grow the top end range for long haul uses as the battery pack cost/benefit ratios continue improving.

    Also, isn't there a 'drink your own champagne' aspect for 'Tesla logistics' to tie in various distribution flows for continuing production ramp, to complement rail from Giga-factory to Freemont.
     
  3. Topher

    Topher Energy Curmudgeon

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    Some design goals for electric trucks:

    1) Reduce fatal interactions with cars.
    2) Reduce detrimental impact on roadways.
    3) Increase freight to driver ratio.
    4) Decrease cost per ton-mile.
    5) Decrease air-drag per ton.
    6) Increase cycle time by providing energy while in transit.

    Oh look, I have invented electric trains.

    Thank you kindly
     
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  4. AZ Desert Driver

    AZ Desert Driver Rare combination

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    I have some power tools that drain the battery after a handful of minutes of heavy work. I simply unplug the battery pack and plug in a fresh one and continue the task. The battery joins a fleet of batteries undergoing recharge.
    I can envision a truck stop with "yellow freight line" batteries linked up. A freighter pulls in, swaps out batteries and continues, while the discharged battery undergoes its refreshment. The batteries trail across the country like a baton pass - perhaps traveling west for a leg and then returning east when the next freighter comes in. Fleet management has figured out tractors - trailers - loads- drivers- routes..too much for my tiny brain, but it has been an evolving science for years. Battery swap seems like a near trivial added complexity to to fleet management. Getting drivers unions and recalcitrant operators to buy into turning their rigs into orphans and their jobs into something more monitored...probably a harder nut than the swap.
     
  5. 3Victoria

    3Victoria Active Member

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    With AP trucks one could form a train of trucks by having them follow the leader. Might be hard to pass such a thing, though, so mighg be limited to certain routes.
     
  6. bxr140

    bxr140 Active Member

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    I don't think you're considering all the costs. It will take quite a bit of time and money to develop a hybrid tractor. Its got to be proven as reliable and have long service life, it can't compromise payload capability, and at best, the higher initial cost has to have some very attainable ROI. Similar time/money/effort needs to go into a full electric, and I really don't think the timeline ends up being all that different either.

    On top of that, there will be a huge cultural shift required on the trucking industry that goes well beyond convincing the bean counters that its a good deal.
     
  7. electracity

    electracity Banned

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    I think the intent must be something along this line. Tesla can use its superior highway lane keeping technology to implement this approach.

    I'm hoping Tesla is doing this development with a specific end user.
     
  8. nativewolf

    nativewolf Member

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    I think you are mixing up stuff.
    1-Electric trucks won't have any impact on fatal interactions (autonomous would but that's another issues)
    2-You won't make a lighter truck so roadway damage will actually be higher.
    3-You won't impact freight to driver ratio a single bit
    4- this is the only thing that might be possible
    5-no one cares, only 4 matters
    6-ummm, solar trucks? Neat but even at 100% efficiency not really important and at current 15% efficiency just meaningless.
     
  9. Topher

    Topher Energy Curmudgeon

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    You need to understand the concept of "design goals". ... and trains.

    Thank you kindly.
     
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  10. Ulmo

    Ulmo Active Member

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  11. larmor

    larmor Active Member

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    I wonder if it will be used to transport coal, LNG, or gas--- just sayin'....
     
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  12. AudubonB

    AudubonB RIP Borealis 2006-2020

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    Pepper Potts's final line in her first (only? in IM1) interaction with 'poor' journalist Christine Everhart comes to mind.....
     
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  13. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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  14. AudubonB

    AudubonB RIP Borealis 2006-2020

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    Just for the record:

    In one or more of the various threads discussing today's tweet was suggested a caveat that Tesla needs to supercharge its Supercharger program to accommodate this development.

    I strongly disagree: both long-haul and short-haul trucks are the obvious users of a battery-swap program. I'll put this in the "You Called It" thread, too.
     
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  15. austinEV

    austinEV Supporting Member

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    Yeah the long haulers will have battery swap stations. Trucking companies already essentially this: they have a mesh network of routes and trucks move stuff from node to node, with shipments being combined and broken apart. You just add battery swaps at the nodes.
     
  16. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

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    With batter swapping, there is an interesting business model for leasing and charging the batteries. It is truly an energy business. Tesla Semi could potentially sell the trucks at a fairly modest price while making huge profit on the battery swap business. I'm not suggesting they should go that route, but it is rather interesting direction.

    Nikola seems to be taking a similar tact where they are the purveyor of H2 for their trucks, very deep energy supply chain.
     
  17. AudubonB

    AudubonB RIP Borealis 2006-2020

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    A bit on nomenclature and why it matters:



    In another post I parenthesized "Semi". That is one of a variety of terms used in the US (¿and Canada?) for what most consider a big truck because a traditional heavy hauler is the combination of (1) a tractor, which consists of an engine + transmission, driver's cab, a steering axle and one or more drive axles, and (2) one or more semi-trailers - and that refers to a trailer that hasn't got a front axle, but rather is attached to the tractor with a so-called fifth wheel hitch (a 2nd and sometimes 3rd trailer may be attached or, if you're Australian, 999 of 'em, always with 10^4 sheep in each one). In the US, effectively synonymous terms are tractor-trailer, big rig, 18-wheeler (the normal configuration); English speakers in other places have a number of other terms.

    Now: Tesla's entry may or may not be such a combination. It is possible there will be nothing "semi" about it:
    • MAYBE these new cargo haulers will consist of a much diminished or non-existent tractor: that all the motive force is contained in each "trailer".
    • That Tesla has developed a heavy-duty skateboard, and connex-like pods are plopped onto each one.
    • That - and this is esp. the case for long-distance, limited access highway hauling - the rig is fully self-driving, and a "driver" is non-existent.
    • Or, given we're not yet into the 22nd century, driver must have an accompanying dog; driver's sole responsibility is to feed & water the dog; dog's duty is to bite the driver if ever the driver attempts to touch anything.
    • ALL OF THESE POSSIBILITIES are absolute fodder for battery swapping, as posted above.
     
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  18. Blurry_Eyed

    Blurry_Eyed MS Sig #267, MX Sig # 761

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    Another interesting disruption to the fossil fuel industry as well as our economy. Imagine dropping the operating costs of shipping goods (Consumer goods, raw materials etc.) by long haul trucking. Eliminate the driver cost and drop the 'fuel' costs to the price of electricity. Then imagine where the electricity is produced by solar panels for 'free' and stored in Tesla Powerpacks at the various deliver stations around the country. Also improved efficiency where drivers won't get into accidents or need to take mandated rest breaks.

    There is the social cost of how to help all the long-haul truck drivers get re-employed and that will be a huge social question to tackle.
     
  19. OBX John

    OBX John Autonomous Driving Enthusiast

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    It would make sense to use an electric truck to haul around batteries, but only if those batteries being hauled could be powering the truck as well.
     
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