Tesla Semi

[ValueAnalyst]

Good point. So they've been working on it for about 1yr, and the reveal next month could be equivalent to the March 2016 Model 3 reveal. Add about 18 months to November 2017... May 2019 could be the earliest production starts.

Reasoning by analogy.

First principles:

1. Tesla is now further along on its life cycle with access to non-dilutive debt capital;
2. Tesla Semi uses many of the same parts as the Model 3, whereas Model 3 was an entirely new platform; and
3. Because of its commercial nature, Tesla Semi could have remained under stealth mode for longer (don't know if this is the case though).

On the other hand, I wonder if Tesla will have to wait for Project TIM, but I doubt it. I think they can start building first production in Fremont.

 

[mongo]

The software for current semi trucks is extensive, there are sensors for everything from wiper fluids to tire pressure. The driver reviews all messages. I think the Tesla semi software could have more data points for review locally and remotely than the S/X.

Agreed. I assumed for a first run of trucks that Tesla could carry over all the body/ control hardware/ software. The engine/ transmission interface is commonized already, so they could have a network gateway module to convert say inverter temperature to transmission temp and such.

 

[jhm]

Tesla Semi will be an exciting new business. Lots of core competencies come into play.

• Innovative vehicle design
• Vehicle autonomy
• Battery tech and manufacturing
• Sale, distribution and servicing
• Swap and Supercharging infrastructure
• Interfacing with the grid, including electric highways
• Sustainability

So let's discuss Tesla Semi and trucking here.

This first post was on July 25, 2016. Tesla Semi had been in stealth mode for a year or so before that. How quickly time passes!

 

[jhm]

Tesla's Jerome Guillen Spotted Vacationing During Leave of Absence

The Curious Case of Jerome Guillen, Tesla Semi Trucks, & Nikola One

So Jerome Guillen was spotted on vacation on Aug 25, 2015. This was three weeks into his "Leave of Absence." While he did get some deserved vacation time out of it, we learned a year later that this leave of absence was a cover story to allow Jerome to focus on the Tesla Semi and other Part Deux objectives.

Thus, covert R&D for the semi goes back to August 2015 and maybe earlier. Jerome was the ideal candidate to lead this effort as he had done so at Diamler before.

 

[generalenthu]

Tesla's Jerome Guillen Spotted Vacationing During Leave of Absence

The Curious Case of Jerome Guillen, Tesla Semi Trucks, & Nikola One

So Jerome Guillen was spotted on vacation on Aug 25, 2015. This was three weeks into his "Leave of Absence." While he did get some deserved vacation time out of it, we learned a year later that this leave of absence was a cover story to allow Jerome to focus on the Tesla Semi and other Part Deux objectives.

Thus, covert R&D for the semi goes back to August 2015 and maybe earlier. Jerome was the ideal candidate to lead this effort as he had done so at Diamler before.

Jerome’s linked in profile says Jan 16

 

[jhm]

Jerome’s linked in profile says Jan 16

The cover story may not be so consistent. The Teslarati article and TMC post it is based on are clearly well before 2016. I suspect in the early stages, Jerome was reaching out to trucking companies to collect input on what they would want to see in an electric truck. To conduct that sort of research, Jerome would likely still be clearly identified as an employee of Tesla. Hence his linkedin profile would still show him as employed by Tesla. But clearly, the Tesla world was surprised by this "leave of absence" in August 2016.

Could there have been two leaves of absence? Or is there just disagreement when one fake leave of absence began? Again perhaps some historian can sort this out for us.

 

[jhm]

ABB Flash-Charging Electric Bus Route To Open In Geneva, Switzerland

Here are two charging concepts that may be of value to heavy duty EVs.

 

[D-egg-O]

Reasoning by analogy.

First principles:

1. Tesla is now further along on its life cycle with access to non-dilutive debt capital;
2. Tesla Semi uses many of the same parts as the Model 3, whereas Model 3 was an entirely new platform; and
3. Because of its commercial nature, Tesla Semi could have remained under stealth mode for longer (don't know if this is the case though).

On the other hand, I wonder if Tesla will have to wait for Project TIM, but I doubt it. I think they can start building first production in Fremont.

Number 2 is way off. The semi is going to use same motors (and inverters) as Model 3. Maybe the same battery pack architecture, but the vehicle platform architecture could not be more different.

Tesla accelerated the development of Model 3. There was "fat" to trim out of standard vehicle development programs, so I think reason by Model 3 development analogy is valid in this case. There's a point of diminishing return in trying to accelerate the programs further. Are they at the point of finishing returns? I don't know.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Number 2 is way off. The semi is going to use same motors (and inverters) as Model 3. Maybe the same battery pack architecture, but the vehicle platform architecture could not be more different.

I didn't say platform was the same. Anyway, it seems that the majority of estimates seem to fall somewhere between 4Q18 and 4Q19. Thanks!

 

[dc_h]

Good point. So they've been working on it for about 1yr, and the reveal next month could be equivalent to the March 2016 Model 3 reveal. Add about 18 months to November 2017... May 2019 could be the earliest production starts.

Recall the daily bankan article about Model 3 parts still being made at Summit Thailand in Michigan? I think the semi would make sense to outsource some of the stamping, since the run rate would be much smaller than S/X & 3. If they outsourced some of the panels and parts, they could get initial trucks out the door by mid 2018.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Recall the daily bankan article about Model 3 parts still being made at Summit Thailand in Michigan? I think the semi would make sense to outsource some of the stamping, since the run rate would be much smaller than S/X & 3. If they outsourced some of the panels and parts, they could get initial trucks out the door by mid 2018.

Can anyone "second" this? Getting semi's out the door by mid-18 would be very positive for SP.

 

[EinSV]

Can anyone "second" this? Getting semi's out the door by mid-18 would be very positive for SP.

In June Elon said volume production would be in 18-24 months, so December 2018-June 2019. Tesla Semi to reach ‘scale production’ in ’18 to 24 months’ and will be unveiled with something unannounced, says Elon Musk

Until we get updated guidance my guesstimate would be volume production around mid-2019 with initial production a few months earlier.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

In June Elon said volume production would be in 18-24 months, so December 2018-June 2019. Tesla Semi to reach ‘scale production’ in ’18 to 24 months’ and will be unveiled with something unannounced, says Elon Musk

Until we get updated guidance my guesstimate would be volume production around mid-2019 with initial production a few months earlier.

Ok. That's probably why I had the model the way I did. I'm going to adjust anything Elon says by 3-6 months from now on though... smh.

Does anyone have an idea of what "volume production" could mean in the context of Semi?

 

[jhm]

https://www.trucks.com/2017/09/25/navistar-electric-truck-coming-north-america/

Nice color here.


“It is a forgone conclusion that there is a role for electric vehicles in the commercial vehicle space,” said Troy Clarke, chief executive of Navistar.

The electric truck could debut in late 2019 or early 2020, Clarke said. The company selected the medium-duty market because those vehicles typically travel short distances, operate in urban areas that suffer from poor air quality and generally run routes where they return to a central location at night where they can be charged.

“We believe Class 6/7 is the ideal place for electric powertrain solutions in the near term,” Clarke said. “Our alliance with Volkswagen Truck & Bus will allow us to move much more quickly into electrical propulsion.”

Both companies see increasing demand for electric trucks as more stringent emissions regulations are enacted globally. They plan to share technology.

“The basic hardware components have to be the same or you lose economic scale,” said Andreas Renschler, chief executive of Volkswagen Truck & Bus. “We want to have one common platform.”

The rapidly decreasing price of batteries, which are falling annually at double digit rates, contribute to making electric trucks viable, Clarke said.

 

[jhm]

Electric Axle for Trucks Saves Up to 15% in Fuel, Hyliion Says

Electric axle can save 15% fuel. Can be added to existing diesel trucks, also trailers.

This would reduce diesel demand by about 0.11 b/d per average semi.

 

[roblab]

The software for current semi trucks is extensive, there are sensors for everything from wiper fluids to tire pressure. The driver reviews all messages. I think the Tesla semi software could have more data points for review locally and remotely than the S/X.

Just thinkin', there's a lot less to keep track of in an electric than in a diesel vehicle. Sure, wiper fluid and tire pressure, but I keep telling people that there's no "hood" on the Tesla, because there's no need to check anything on the engine. You can't access the motor or the battery as an owner. And yes, I've driven semis commercially.

 

[zdriver]

Just thinkin', there's a lot less to keep track of in an electric than in a diesel vehicle. Sure, wiper fluid and tire pressure, but I keep telling people that there's no "hood" on the Tesla, because there's no need to check anything on the engine. You can't access the motor or the battery as an owner. And yes, I've driven semis commercially.

Hm, fewer things for a cranky weigh station officer to pick over to find something wrong...

 

[D-egg-O]

Recall the daily bankan article about Model 3 parts still being made at Summit Thailand in Michigan? I think the semi would make sense to outsource some of the stamping, since the run rate would be much smaller than S/X & 3. If they outsourced some of the panels and parts, they could get initial trucks out the door by mid 2018.

They could purchase gliders from an existing truck OEM to aid this strategy, but this would limit overall design control

Does anyone have an idea of what "volume production" could mean in the context of Semi?

150-200/day

 

[ValueAnalyst]

150-200/day

I wasn't projecting this daily rate until 3Q21. It would be huge for the stock if that can reach this rate in 2019.

Do you have a background in this line of business? On what do you base this estimate?

 

[jhm]

Tesla is launching new all-electric service vehicles based on Model S and Model X next year

A Tesla service vehicle designed by and for Tesla service technicians. I think this is great to get technicians into the design loop. This is how some really deep innovation can happen in the commercial vehicle space.