Tesla Semi

[mrdoubleb]

Just for the record:

In one or more of the various threads discussing today's tweet was suggested a caveat that Tesla needs to supercharge its Supercharger program to accommodate this development.

I strongly disagree: both long-haul and short-haul trucks are the obvious users of a battery-swap program. I'll put this in the "You Called It" thread, too.

Absolutely! It is like battery swap was invented for this... I`ve been thinking about this for a while.

I always thought one of the main reasons why battery swapping was DOA from a customer point of view for passenger cars, was, that the battery is the most expensive and most sensitive part of the BEV. So if you were to swap your own battery you took great care of and next time get "whatever" is available, no one would go for it. Tesla tried to solve this by shipping your pack back to you, but seriously, that would have never been fesible.

With semis, the trucking company could own a certain number of packs and these would get swapped among their fleet. Better yet, the pack-business could be spun off from the vehicles, so that no one would own specific packs, but use them on a subscription bases, so even multiple customers - companies - could share the pool, with Tesla recycling them when they wear out.

Another issue is the power needed to charge huge packs in a short amount of time. Instead, they could do it like this:

• Every semi uses a number of standard 100kWh Tesla battery packs mounted at the bottom of the cab or the trailer section. This helps optimize tesla production - sharing pack production between cars and semis - and also requires charging standard 100kWh packs vs. a single monster 300 or 500.
• As the semi pulls in, the automated system simultaneously takes off the packs from under the vehicle and places them into the charging bays.
• A swapping station could house a number of bays where the pack can charge for an hour or longer to get to 100% - or maybe just 80-90% as that is quicker and extends pack lifecycle.
• In a matter of 2-3 minutes the semi gets the new packs and is ready to go.

With autonomus semis and automated swapping stations, the trucks could parctically run uninterrupted, needing no mandatory breaks for "human"or technical factors.

Alternatively, regulators or Tesla could come up with a system where this is only for transporting perishable itmes like food or livestock. For other stuff, the trucks could run only at night, when the roads are relatively empty, they do not contribute to the congestion and leave the packs charging during the day on solar power. OR... the other way... trucks run during the day and packs charge at the stations at night on cheap power.

So many options...

 

[dhanson865]

cross post from reddit. by u/hwillis:

Autopilot without legal change. You still need a guy in the truck. You can't really pay him less because of autopilot.

I disagree. Autopilot + human will be safer than human alone reducing insurance costs for both liability to others and comprehensive/medical for the truck and driver.

It'll also make the job much more livable (less stress, more comfortable) making it more likely someone will be willing to do it at all. Thus increasing the worker pool and in the end reducing labor costs due to supply/demand imbalance. You might even gain back drivers that had to take disability. Maybe they are 20% disabled but autopilot covers enough that they feel able to rejoin the workforce. Maybe it's the difference between someone driving that big a truck or not if they have one arm or one leg missing (or maybe it just reduces the cost of those that already drive like that as they don't need to modify the vehicle as much if "out of the factory" autopilot can replace customized controls).

and read "customized controls" as expensive controls. Anything non standard tends to be less reliable and more expensive. Heck just having standardized assistance might bring in people that have never done long haul before. Imagine the freedom in fleet operation of being able to use any Tesla semi instead of focusing on only the one truck you had modified for your use but waiting for it to be repaired or maintained as big trucks often require.

 

[kenliles]

Just for the record:

In one or more of the various threads discussing today's tweet was suggested a caveat that Tesla needs to supercharge its Supercharger program to accommodate this development.

I strongly disagree: both long-haul and short-haul trucks are the obvious users of a battery-swap program. I'll put this in the "You Called It" thread, too.

Given the point of the poster was that a greatly expanded 'refueling' distributed network would have to be formed or expanded; what's the difference?

Super-Swap or Super-Charge or both - the swapped battery has to be recharged, and the slower the charge the tougher the distribution of availability becomes. Assuming Swap is deployed, integration with and therefore expansion of, SC is the path of least resistance- rather than a point of disagreement imo. And both will need critical expansion -cross country and short-haul alike.

 

[electracity]

Every semi uses a number of standard 100kWh Tesla battery packs mounted at the bottom of the cab or the trailer section.

Is Tesla going to come out with a semi that needs huge infrastructure?

I think it is more likely that the first version will be aimed a warehouse distribution. The truck can charge at the walmart distribution center, and possibly at the walmart store when it is being unloaded.

 

[EV-lutioin]

Semis might work with a truck-specific V3 Supercharger network with +350kW/h charging along major interstates. Range would not be as much of an issue with V3's every 150-200 miles. Full charge in ~15 min. This would definitely help reduce the CO2 emissions trucks produce.

 

[electracity]

Range would not be as much of an issue with V3's every 150-200 miles.

That would not work in the U.S. Long miles are driven with few stops during duty hours.

Summary of Hours of Service Regulations

 

[Pando]

Well, the big question is... does it have HUD?

 

[DriverOne]

Interestingly a semi could be large enough to mount a useful area of solar panels.

1 sq metre of panel would normally give ≈150-200W. Not very much when it takes 20,000 for a car to drive along.

But a semi would offer an area roughly 13m x 2.5m = 32.5 sq.m. 32.5 * 175W ≈ 5,700W. That's a reasonable amount of energy. Now a semi would need more than 20kW to drive, but still.

 

[bxr140]

That would not work in the U.S. Long miles are driven with few stops during duty hours.

Summary of Hours of Service Regulations

That's why it's called 'disruptive'.

If every new idea had to fit in the small box that preceded it, we'd never get anywhere as a society.

 

[waterloo42]

The really interesting thing could be that Tesla isn't selling the semis -- with autonomous driving and potential changes in regulation, they can provide a freight service directly to customers with low cost for both fuel and drivers. Just need to work on logistics at both ends of the delivery but a substantial part of travel on Interstate may be done at far cheaper cost.

 

[mmd]

Interestingly a semi could be large enough to mount a useful area of solar panels.

1 sq metre of panel would normally give ≈150-200W. Not very much when it takes 20,000 for a car to drive along.

But a semi would offer an area roughly 13m x 2.5m = 32.5 sq.m. 32.5 * 175W ≈ 5,700W. That's a reasonable amount of energy. Now a semi would need more than 20kW to drive, but still.

You can't put panels on the container. They will be unloaded/loaded on the ships and will be gone, never to be seen again.

 

[geneclean55]

Interestingly a semi could be large enough to mount a useful area of solar panels.

1 sq metre of panel would normally give ≈150-200W. Not very much when it takes 20,000 for a car to drive along.

But a semi would offer an area roughly 13m x 2.5m = 32.5 sq.m. 32.5 * 175W ≈ 5,700W. That's a reasonable amount of energy. Now a semi would need more than 20kW to drive, but still.

Great point. Even if the panels aren't fully fixed to the container, they could use a deployable solar shield as Musk has alluded to recently for other Tesla vehicles.

 

[electracity]

That's why it's called 'disruptive'.

If every new idea had to fit in the small box that preceded it, we'd never get anywhere as a society.

Drivers logging considerably fewer miles per work day is not "disruptive".

 

[ohmman]

Worth posting here is this graphic (and animation in the source), of the most common job by state.

 

[larmor]

Pepper Potts's final line in her first (only? in IM1) interaction with 'poor' journalist Christine Everhart comes to mind.....

Maybe the tesla truck network will haul amazon goods around...

 

[steve3]

I have a couple questions for somebody in the trucking industry...

Would Tesla be up against a legacy dealership model like in the auto side, or are trucking sales normally transacted directly with the OEM?

I'm also wondering if the existing logistics providers would embrace a small but perpetual "per mile" service revenue for Tesla - effectively sharing a small % of operating cost savings - based on autonomy as the service, like Tesla Network. This would avoid the capitalization problem of providing end to end logistical services, but still give Tesla a slice of the pie - without having to recreate the bakery.

One way to make this work could be to include the AP h/w and EAP/FSD as no charge standard features. Since Tesla Semi operating costs per mile are going to be significantly lower than ICE or other EV competitors (due to lowest battery costs), would the existing industry embrace a sharing of that per mile savings? This could give Tesla a perpetual profit stream far beyond what they would charge upfront for EAP/FSD. Would Tesla be in a position to drive this model as a new industry standard practice? (Does their unmatched leadership in data-miles collected leverage them into a first mover position in autonomous trucking?)

Same independent dealership model. Though I don't know if the same franchise laws apply. I do know Cummins (engine OEM) acquired all of their distributors.

I don't see why the Tesla Network Elon's explained for passenger cars could not be mirrored for the trucking business. You'll have fleets owning trucks in the network. As well as owner operators. And Tesla will provide trucks as well.

If the trucks have a cab, EAP/FSD will be an upgrade but the hardware should come standard similar as new S and X cars. If there is no cab, EAP/FSD has to be standard. Tesla is best positioned to drive this since they both own the software technology and are working on the manufacturing technology too.

Thanks for your helpful reply!

It seems likely to me that Tesla would mirror an existing/planned business model like Tesla Network, as that keeps things both simple and highly profitable - customers as silent business partners who happily generate pure profit for you. Does it make as much money for Tesla as starting up a new Tesla Logistics business unit? Probably not as much, but it would be nice for Tesla to profit from some breezy tailwinds rather than take on another business to create from scratch.

Buy selling semis rather than than producing only Tesla-owned trucks, they don't compete against fleet operators and independent operators. A great many of these operators would jump at the chance to access significant cost reductions in their existing business models: they pocket enhanced profits, they're customers are thrilled with significantly lower shipping costs, early birds grab market share from competitors slow to adopt, and the overall addressable trucking market expands further, probably into arenas traditionally served by rail freight haulers.

100% profit, royalty-type, burgeoning annuity - always a welcome line item on any high-growth enterprise's balance sheet.

[Edit] And is a no-cost, profit-generating addition in the enterprise-wide "capital light" paradigm.

 

[jhm]

Interestingly a semi could be large enough to mount a useful area of solar panels.

1 sq metre of panel would normally give ≈150-200W. Not very much when it takes 20,000 for a car to drive along.

But a semi would offer an area roughly 13m x 2.5m = 32.5 sq.m. 32.5 * 175W ≈ 5,700W. That's a reasonable amount of energy. Now a semi would need more than 20kW to drive, but still.

This is fun.

High efficiency cells are pushing 25% or about 250W/m^2.

Added benefit for refrigerated trailers is some reduction in heat from sun in addition to powering refrigeration.

Now incremental cost is minimal if inverter and battery are already part of trailer. So why not design a power trailer that has inverter, motor and battery? This is all controlled by the tractor when hooked up. Motor for trailer is cheap, and provides better traction and regenerative braking. Battery collects surplus solar power, boosts range, and provides options for charging logistics, for example, while loading, unloading or waiting. Inverter is needed for motor, but also works with solar panel.

 

[jhm]

A bit on nomenclature and why it matters:



In another post I parenthesized "Semi". That is one of a variety of terms used in the US (¿and Canada?) for what most consider a big truck because a traditional heavy hauler is the combination of (1) a tractor, which consists of an engine + transmission, driver's cab, a steering axle and one or more drive axles, and (2) one or more semi-trailers - and that refers to a trailer that hasn't got a front axle, but rather is attached to the tractor with a so-called fifth wheel hitch (a 2nd and sometimes 3rd trailer may be attached or, if you're Australian, 999 of 'em, always with 10^4 sheep in each one). In the US, effectively synonymous terms are tractor-trailer, big rig, 18-wheeler (the normal configuration); English speakers in other places have a number of other terms.

Now: Tesla's entry may or may not be such a combination. It is possible there will be nothing "semi" about it:

• MAYBE these new cargo haulers will consist of a much diminished or non-existent tractor: that all the motive force is contained in each "trailer".
• That Tesla has developed a heavy-duty skateboard, and connex-like pods are plopped onto each one.
• That - and this is esp. the case for long-distance, limited access highway hauling - the rig is fully self-driving, and a "driver" is non-existent.
• Or, given we're not yet into the 22nd century, driver must have an accompanying dog; driver's sole responsibility is to feed & water the dog; dog's duty is to bite the driver if ever the driver attempts to touch anything.
• ALL OF THESE POSSIBILITIES are absolute fodder for battery swapping, as posted above.

The dog can also be a guard dog. Security is something that drivers provide.

 

[FlatSix911]

Tesla Semi all-electric truck to be unveiled in September and be ‘next level’, says Elon Musk

 

[cdub]

Seems to me there are at least two major markets, each with unique needs:
1) Long haul - here's where the swap/charging infrastructure will need to be developed and aerodynamics are paramount
2) Local delivery - Much lower average speeds negate some of the aerodynamic requirements
3) Others?

I want a Tesla RV.