Tesla Semi

[jhm]

Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

We may already be post peak for diesel demand. The peak could be 27.6 mb/d in 2015. In the following year consumption fell 128 kb/d. This may not seem like much but growth over the prior ten years suggested an increase around 450 kd/d.

One contributing factor is that electric buses in China account for 68 kb/d of diesel displacement. So EV displacement already account for more than half the decline in global decline in diesel.

If heavy electric vehicles, including semis, continue to double every year, then by 2019 this displacement will reach 560 kb/d and totally overwhelm the natural demand growth rate of 450 kb/d. Thus, within 3 years commercial EVs can make the decline in diesel consumption permanent.

Peak diesel may already be in the rearview mirror.

 

[FutureTSLACEO]

Not sure if this was mentioned earlier here, but I think battery swapping technology might be coming back for use in Tesla Semi. It makes sense that swapping the battery packs at specific stations will help to speed up transit time. Can't wait for Sept 28th to be surprised.

 

[D-egg-O]

Weak cybersecurity in current semi trucks is a big opportunity for Tesla.

Tesla Semi Unveiling Event - any details? • r/teslamotors

 

[neroden]

Courtesy of @wdolson in a different thread, insideEVs is estimating the Semi battery size at 1200kWh, with a 600 mile range.

This is overkill on range. Truckers *should not* be driving that many hours in one stretch, although the trucking safety laws are very weak. I also hope the efficiency is higher than that... didn't we do some efficiency calculations earlier in this thread? I should probably look them up again.

 

[EinSV]

This is overkill on range. Truckers *should not* be driving that many hours in one stretch, although the trucking safety laws are very weak. I also hope the efficiency is higher than that... didn't we do some efficiency calculations earlier in this thread? I should probably look them up again.

There are a number of estimates of efficiency in this thread and that's obviously a critical variable. Even assuming 2kWh/mile (as some have estimated) the battery easily could easily be smaller than the 1200 kWh predicted by insideEVs. But if the battery is too small added labor costs from frequent charging could start to add up, plus the Semi, trailer, container, etc. would be tied up for longer which adds to TCO and could hurt the revenue side of the equation as well. Smaller batteries also likely require a denser charging network (unless marketed for local use), which also adds cost for Tesla that will need to be passed on to the operator.

One solution would be to offer 2 or 3 different battery options as have done with the S and X to serve different customer needs. For example, they could offer something like 800kWh, 1000kWh and 1200kWh options (numbers themselves are totally speculative).

 

[jhm]

Suppose you want the whole drive train to have a 1 million mile life range, and suppose the battery is good for 5000 cycles. At 2kWh/mile, you need battery with 400 kWh capacity (= 1M mill * 2 kWh/mile / 5000 cycles). Pushing the battery size up beyond 600 kWh starts to make inefficient life time use of the batter. Of course, building out the rest of the drive train to be good for more than 1M miles would be a good thing too. I'm just making the point that right sizing the battery also involves consideration of the useful life of both battery and truck.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Perhaps a Tesla Semi competition? Einride - Official Launch of the T-pod!

 

[haid]

Let me try this Tesla Semi speculation one more time. My guess is that the Tesla Semi will be:
*a "tractor" that is not actually attached to the trailer.
*a trailer is merely a skateboard (battery and wheels) that follows the "tractor" via modified autopilot
*a trailer can follow another trailer, which means a single "tractor" can lead many trailers down the highway
*a trailer can carry a standard shipping container
*a trailer/skateboard can load or unload a shipping container w/o human interaction
*instead of swapping batteries, a container will swap its trailer/skateboard for one that is fully charged in 5 mins.

 

[dhanson865]

Let me try this Tesla Semi speculation one more time. My guess is that the Tesla Semi will be:
*a "tractor" that is not actually attached to the trailer.
*a trailer is merely a skateboard (battery and wheels) that follows the "tractor" via modified autopilot
*a trailer can follow another trailer, which means a single "tractor" can lead many trailers down the highway
*a trailer can carry a standard shipping container
*a trailer/skateboard can load or unload a shipping container w/o human interaction
*instead of swapping batteries, a container will swap its trailer/skateboard for one that is fully charged in 5 mins.

I was with you until you said load or unload without human interaction. I'm not seeing that one, the rest seems doable.

 

[haid]

I was with you until you said load or unload without human interaction. I'm not seeing that one, the rest seems doable.

I was referring to the container automatically sliding on and clamping or sliding off (not packing or unpacking the contents)

 

[dhanson865]

I was referring to the container automatically sliding on and clamping or sliding off (not packing or unpacking the contents)

I'm talking about the container not the contents, not with you that the Tesla trailer could auto unload or autoload the container itself. I'd expect that to require a forklift or crane that isn't part of the trailer.

OK, it is an option with tilt method but only for smaller and/or lighter containers. I suppose an electric winch shouldn't be that hard to add. Maybe the winch and tilt bed trailer could be options not base features.

And then even if you somehow have a container light enough that tilt bed trailer could lift it how do you expect it to attach the winch cable automatically? I'd still expect that to require human intervention.

Container Delivery Basics: Tilt-Bed, Flat-Bed, or Chassis

Tilt-Bed Delivery

A tilt-bed is the most popular delivery option, either with a straight truck or a tractor-trailer combo. The truck will back right into the place you want your container, the trailer will tip down, and a winch will lower one end of the container to the ground. Then the truck will pull forward as the winch lowers the other container end.
Pros: Your container is slid to the ground right where you want it.

Cons: Generally more expensive than other methods. While these trucks can pick up a lightly loaded 20’ container, they cannot pick up loaded 40’ containers at all.

Flat-Bed Delivery

Trucks with a long flat bed can hold either one 40’ container or up to two 20’ containers. A forklift or crane will set your container on the truck at the beginning of the trip and lift it off when it reaches your site.

Pros: Because your container will be loaded onto a truck that also carries other cargo, flat-bed delivery is a low-cost alternative, especially when the container needs to travel long distances.

Cons: You need to make sure equipment is available to load and unload your container.

 

[haid]

And then even if you somehow have a container light enough that tilt bed trailer could lift it how do you expect it to attach the winch cable automatically? I'd still expect that to require human intervention.

Container Delivery Basics: Tilt-Bed, Flat-Bed, or Chassis

Geez, I don't know. Maybe its a bed of rollers able to power the load/unload. And maybe it doesn't tilt. An empty bed backs up to a loaded one, so that they are nearly touching. Then the rollers convey the container from one flat bead to the other w/o human intervention. In the grand scope of things, this looks like a trivial problem to solve compared to the complexities of other things (e.g. autopilot version for trailers).

 

[RubberToe]

So I was reading through some planning documents on the Caltrans website over the weekend, you know, just for the sheer joy of it. The 710 freeway is going to be modernized between Long Beach and downtown L.A. For those of you not familiar with the corridor, this freeway is basically used by all the trucks leaving the port and heading to points East. The two alternatives being considered are both pricey: 5c is $4.67 billion, and 7 is $7.97 billion. The relevant aspects of this to the current topic is that alternative 7 includes 16 miles of 4 separate truck lanes, specifically for ZEV/NZEV vehicles, and includes full automation. Here is a direct link to the study for those interested, and a screen shot of alternative 7:

http://www.dot.ca.gov/d7/env-docs/docs/RDEIR_SDEIS July 2017.pdf

 

[RubberToe]

 

[Cosmacelf]

Why couldn't the Tesla semi be targeted for fleet operators that use them for distribution hub trucking? That way, range is not as much of an issue, and you have easy access to charging facilities at distribution warehouses.

 

[neroden]

Ugh. That highway expansion proposal is in the department of "waste of money to spread asphalt". Compared to this, the Boring Company scheme, which I've said a lot of bad things about, makes economic sense.

This is what's actually needed, for a fraction of the cost; it faces essentially political / coordination obstacles:

Shippers await short-haul rail option to LA-LB ports

When you're moving 200 containers at a time from the port to the warehouse, trucks are simply the wrong tool for the job.

 

[RubberToe]

Ugh. That highway expansion proposal is in the department of "waste of money to spread asphalt". Compared to this, the Boring Company scheme, which I've said a lot of bad things about, makes economic sense.

This is what's actually needed, for a fraction of the cost; it faces essentially political / coordination obstacles:

Shippers await short-haul rail option to LA-LB ports

When you're moving 200 containers at a time from the port to the warehouse, trucks are simply the wrong tool for the job.

The Alameda corridor has been up and running for more than 15 years. And the Eastern extension is currently under construction:

Alameda Corridor - Wikipedia

They were also at one time considering a maglev for freight all the way from the ports to Victorville:

Ports considering maglev trains to cut smog

That would have been something to see: Standard sized containers coming off a ship, put on a Maglev sled, and heading off to Victorville at 90mph.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

The Model 3 launch gives us a bit of insight into the Semi battery. Elon's statement to Car and Driver that M3 has 3 modules means that these are big, ~25kWh, 400V modules that can be stacked to any pack size that's a multiple of 25kWh..

Also the mass differential between the two models gives us a clue as to module energy density. The difference is 265lb, but there's likely a stiffening bracket in place of the missing module on the 220mile car and there's likely some extra weight on the 310 mile car for additional wiring and possibly other stuff. I feel fairly comfortable placing module weight at 270lb and module energy at 25.5 with 24.5 of that being usable. This gives us a module level energy density of 200Wh/kg, 600kWh would be 6600lb. I can see a truck with modular battery capacity so that the truck's range and cost can be adjusted as needed.

I'm no semi expert though, make of his what you will.

 

[jhm]

The Model 3 launch gives us a bit of insight into the Semi battery. Elon's statement to Car and Driver that M3 has 3 modules means that these are big, ~25kWh, 400V modules that can be stacked to any pack size that's a multiple of 25kWh..

Also the mass differential between the two models gives us a clue as to module energy density. The difference is 265lb, but there's likely a stiffening bracket in place of the missing module on the 220mile car and there's likely some extra weight on the 310 mile car for additional wiring and possibly other stuff. I feel fairly comfortable placing module weight at 270lb and module energy at 25.5 with 24.5 of that being usable. This gives us a module level energy density of 200Wh/kg, 600kWh would be 6600lb. I can see a truck with modular battery capacity so that the truck's range and cost can be adjusted as needed.

I'm no semi expert though, make of his what you will.

Nice sleuthing! Let's add to this that the marginal price between the two versions of Model 3 is $9k for 25kWh, so $360/kWh. For comparison, the difference for Model S 100D vs 75D is $23k, or $920/kWh. Perhaps there are a few other features to back out here, but it sure looks like the margin price of kWh is getting lower. So maybe Tesla Semi could have a marginal price of $360/kWh or a little lower.

Going back to the idea that it takes about 9 kWh of electricity to offset a gallon of diesel and assuming 5000 cycle life. 1 kWh battery = 5000 kWh discharge = 556 gallon offset for $360, or $0.65/gallon for marginal price of battery. Add to this the cost of charging commercial, say $0.08/kWh, or $0.72/gallon for charging. Combined $1.37/gallon. This is substantially cheaper than diesel. Moreover, I have ignored the glaring fact that the cost of a diesel drivetrain is well in excess of the non-battery portion of the cost of the EV drivetrain. So the comparison is even more favorable for Tesla.

Also given the non-battery portion of the full price of the Tesla Semi, many customers will want to get as much mileage out of that as possible, so long as the marginal benefit of more battery is positive. This is a long way of saying, I think customers are going to want to burn through battery modules as fast as they can. These will be heavily used.

 

[WarpedOne]

Elon's statement to Car and Driver that M3 has 3 modules means ...

.. that something was lost in translation.
Model 3 unveil last year showed battery consisting of 8 modules.

Unless 2 of those modules do not contain actual cells the report is wrong.
Speculation ran off track.