Man suffering from caffeine withdrawal babbles incoherently on Internet — news at 11:00!
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Man suffering from caffeine withdrawal babbles incoherently on Internet — news at 11:00!
*fixed
Weird. The link redirects me to the German site. Can anyone in the US see the Semi page? I can't get to it.For anyone ready to pull the trigger on their new Semi reservation, there is now a handy webpage.
They state a 2-year payback period and $200,000 in fuel savings, so the Semi basically pays for itself.
Tesla Semi
Lowest Cost of Ownership
Electric energy costs are half those of diesel. With fewer systems to maintain, the Tesla Semi provides $200,000+ in fuel savings and a two-year payback period.
Edit. Switching browsers from IE to Firefox, I am now able to see it.
Hmm I think this $200k savings on fuel is over the 1M mile warranted life, so about 20c/mile. Diesel at $2.40/gal gets to 40c/mile assuming 6 mpg. A savings of 20c/mile is consistent with 12.5c/kWh * 1.6 kWh/mile = 20c/mile for electric.
So this all seems straightforward enough. However, I don't see how this can quite be recouped in 2 years as that would require about 500k miles per year. We're talking an average speed of 60 mph for 23 hours per day, 365 days per year. But in range of 5 to 10 years, a lot of trucking operations could realistically achieve payback.
Regardless, the savings is enormous, and I believe the trucking industry will find it irresistible. Actually, Tesla could charge a whole lot more for the Semi and still deliver compelling savings to truck operators. For this reason, I hope that Tesla will build up its own fleet first and enjoy all the savings first as their competitors in auto industry are forced to pay (or pass on) higher delivery costs for their product. This might just be about $50 to $100 per delivered car, but when your lowest grossing product is contributing just a few thousand dollars to gross profit, an extra $50 in savings matters.
So this all seems straightforward enough. However, I don't see how this can quite be recouped in 2 years as that would require about 500k miles per year. We're talking an average speed of 60 mph for 23 hours per day, 365 days per year. But in range of 5 to 10 years, a lot of trucking operations could realistically achieve payback.
Regardless, the savings is enormous, and I believe the trucking industry will find it irresistible. Actually, Tesla could charge a whole lot more for the Semi and still deliver compelling savings to truck operators. For this reason, I hope that Tesla will build up its own fleet first and enjoy all the savings first as their competitors in auto industry are forced to pay (or pass on) higher delivery costs for their product. This might just be about $50 to $100 per delivered car, but when your lowest grossing product is contributing just a few thousand dollars to gross profit, an extra $50 in savings matters.
Wasn't Tesla quoting $0.07 a kWh from the Megacharger?
Diesel is currently ~$3.00 a gallon.
So 0.07* 1.6 = $0.112 a mile
$3.00 / 6MPG = $0.50 a mile
$0.388 a miles savings = 500k miles to gain $200k ( base semi is only $150k).
At 30k miles a year, in 2years they can recoup
40 MPH * 8 hours a day * 5 days a week * 50 weeks a year * 2 years = 160,000 miles
160,000 * 0.388 = $62,000 in savings. So if the Tesla semi costs <$60k more than a regular one, your ROI is 2 years.
big variable is fuel costs and actual efficiency/ drive cycle.
@jerry33 plus brakes, turbo overhaul, trans maintenance...
Ok, that's plausible too. (I'm still not sure how Tesla delivers on demand charging for 7c/kWh, but I really don't want to rehash that.)
Tesla will get demand charges waved and or subsedized if they provide power pack grid stabilization at mega chargers. Makes perfect sense to me. What better utilization of mega charger locations and dual use of grid stabilization.
PGE is already paying huge payouts via 3rd party peak energy saving programs like Ohmconnect. it's not uncommon for me to make $90 during a PGE demand shortage event. I made over $1500 last year alone..
Certainly a big unknown, but perhaps it’s coupled with reducing a giant distribution warehouses peak electricity usage with combined solar and storage. Reduce their peak usage, even out their demand, offset daytime usage with solar. Kind of a capital intensive cheat but could be how to get to that number.
Yes, an alternative revenue stream from supplying grid services is one avenue. It can work where there are utilities willing to play nice with Tesla. If a utility sees Tesla a competitor, however, it could get complicated really fast. Even the act of selling sell-generated power to the public can be challenged as an infringement of legal monopoly rights that protect a utility from competition in selling power. So the thing I worry about is how Tesla can pull this off without willing support from a local utility.
I do suspect, however, that in most places the challenge from Tesla will push utilities into waving demand charges from commercial EV fleet operators. The utilities really need this growth opportunity and if they don't provide affordable pricing, they will push commercial fleets into self-generation schemes. And Tesla Energy will be right there supplying batteries and power systems for these fleets.
Another way to look at this is that a million mile lease on a $180k truck, with $20k down and a minimum annual payment of 20k with 9% financing or better could be priced below 20c/mile. So if you were able to get a savings of say 38c/mile, it pays for the lease with 18c/mile left over as return on down payment.
Now loop this lease into Megacharger payments. Imagine you put 20k down for a lease. You pay 30c/mile to charge up and to cover the lease. If you charge elsewhere, you are still charged 20c/mile for the lease and otherwise are subject to minimum payment requirements. That's a nifty turnkey product.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Looking ahead to market size, I've found myself thinking more about batteries of late. I found this article:
2018 Class 8 Truck Update
Which sizes North America Class 8 truck sales somewhere between 330k and 500k (with the analysts that get paid to provide industry prognostications settling in the 330-350k range).
That might be a lot to the high side - here's another view, that also includes history, that adds in class 3-7, while also being US only:
Truck sales in the U.S. - Class 3-8 2017 | Statistic
This source is at 192k class 8 trucks in 2017 for the US, and overall 3-8 units in the 700k range.
Anyway - focus in on on the class 8's. At ~2 kWh per mile and 500 miles of range, that sounds like a 1 MWh battery pack in the Tesla Semi. It's at least a convenient number to do easy math on. For every 1k of these you want to ship per year, you need 1 GWh of battery cell and battery pack manufacturing capacity (1 MWh * 1000). I like easy math.
If you want to ship 192k of these per year, you need 192 GWh worth of GF output.
As an approximate and order of magnitude point of comparison, 500k cars/year at 80 kWh battery packs each (my guess at a blended average between the various sizes actually being shipped) comes to 40 GWh - I think I've got my zeroes in the right places. I figure this is about the rate at which packs are being built now, with a fair bit of the cells coming from Japan as 18650's, so cell output levels are lower.
The point being, this semi thing that Tesla is starting to poke at, using only the US as the target market, can absorb all of GF1 output as it exists right now, plus the next roughly 3 or 4 increments of output if Tesla were to stop shipping cars or doing anything else with the output (obviously not going to do that).
If the product is as appealing as @jhm's been pointing out, whatever full production is for the factory, demand is there for the factory to ramp all the way to ~250 GWh/year (assuming car sales are flattish from here).
Well - I suppose Tesla won't take ALL of the market for itself, but somewhere in the world, there's going to need to be 200 GWh worth of cell and pack manufacturing going on for the US electric class 8 truck market. And that's assuming that when you build a better truck that is cheaper to operate, that your total market stays the same size - it just replaces the old market based on diesel, and doesn't grow larger.
My own guess is that road haulage in the US is going to grow. Maybe by a lot.
Oh - and I don't have pack size estimates for the class 3 - 7 commercial truck markets, but that second source suggests that's another 400k units/year. Double units and half pack size seems grossly simplistic, while double units and quarter size packs sounds anemic. Either way, I got nothing but a guess here - all I'm certain of is it's big relative to the class 8 market, and the class 8 market is huge compared to all of the EV market that has gone before, everywhere.
I'm ready to hear about construction at GF1 starting up again.
2018 Class 8 Truck Update
Which sizes North America Class 8 truck sales somewhere between 330k and 500k (with the analysts that get paid to provide industry prognostications settling in the 330-350k range).
That might be a lot to the high side - here's another view, that also includes history, that adds in class 3-7, while also being US only:
Truck sales in the U.S. - Class 3-8 2017 | Statistic
This source is at 192k class 8 trucks in 2017 for the US, and overall 3-8 units in the 700k range.
Anyway - focus in on on the class 8's. At ~2 kWh per mile and 500 miles of range, that sounds like a 1 MWh battery pack in the Tesla Semi. It's at least a convenient number to do easy math on. For every 1k of these you want to ship per year, you need 1 GWh of battery cell and battery pack manufacturing capacity (1 MWh * 1000). I like easy math.
If you want to ship 192k of these per year, you need 192 GWh worth of GF output.
As an approximate and order of magnitude point of comparison, 500k cars/year at 80 kWh battery packs each (my guess at a blended average between the various sizes actually being shipped) comes to 40 GWh - I think I've got my zeroes in the right places. I figure this is about the rate at which packs are being built now, with a fair bit of the cells coming from Japan as 18650's, so cell output levels are lower.
The point being, this semi thing that Tesla is starting to poke at, using only the US as the target market, can absorb all of GF1 output as it exists right now, plus the next roughly 3 or 4 increments of output if Tesla were to stop shipping cars or doing anything else with the output (obviously not going to do that).
If the product is as appealing as @jhm's been pointing out, whatever full production is for the factory, demand is there for the factory to ramp all the way to ~250 GWh/year (assuming car sales are flattish from here).
Well - I suppose Tesla won't take ALL of the market for itself, but somewhere in the world, there's going to need to be 200 GWh worth of cell and pack manufacturing going on for the US electric class 8 truck market. And that's assuming that when you build a better truck that is cheaper to operate, that your total market stays the same size - it just replaces the old market based on diesel, and doesn't grow larger.
My own guess is that road haulage in the US is going to grow. Maybe by a lot.
Oh - and I don't have pack size estimates for the class 3 - 7 commercial truck markets, but that second source suggests that's another 400k units/year. Double units and half pack size seems grossly simplistic, while double units and quarter size packs sounds anemic. Either way, I got nothing but a guess here - all I'm certain of is it's big relative to the class 8 market, and the class 8 market is huge compared to all of the EV market that has gone before, everywhere.
I'm ready to hear about construction at GF1 starting up again.
skitown
Member
For anyone ready to pull the trigger on their new Semi reservation, there is now a handy webpage.
They state a 2-year payback period and $200,000 in fuel savings, so the Semi basically pays for itself.
Tesla Semi
Lowest Cost of Ownership
Electric energy costs are half those of diesel. With fewer systems to maintain, the Tesla Semi provides $200,000+ in fuel savings and a two-year payback period.
Damn favorable economics! Proof I can't afford not to get one.
#gobrokesavingmoney
skitown
Member
Damn favorable economics! Proof I can't afford not to get one.
Let's find out if this thing will fit in my garage.....
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Lion Electric Launches A Class 8 Truck With Up To 400km Range | CleanTechnica
Anyone know anything about Lion?
Anyone know anything about Lion?
All I know is they're a Canadian company that is currently building electric school buses. I saw some pictures of their battery packaging and it looked pretty good.
Good company. Pretty low production rates so far (they're practically individually built, given the current number of orders), but the products are good. They're taking on a bunch of sort-of-niche markets like school buses, and I hope they do well.
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