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Tesla Semi

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I'm quite sure that on board chargers won't be viewed as a useless option to some not insignificant percentage of buyers.

That is my guess too. A 100 Amp L2 branch circuit is good for about 20 kW, or about 100 miles of driving a day if overnight charging is 10 hours. Put in two to double the daily range. If the use case fits it strikes me as an obvious choice compared to $50 - $100k for DC charging, even before considering demand charges.
 
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That is my guess too. A 100 Amp L2 branch circuit is good for about 20 kW, or about 100 miles of driving a day if overnight charging is 10 hours

They are only making the 500 mile range version at this point. That would be an awful waste of batteries, and efficiency from carrying all the extra weight.

Put in two to double the daily range.

Oh so now Tesla has to find room to put a second charger, third charge port, and all the additional wiring and contactors. Yeah, that isn't ever going to happen.

If the use case fits it strikes me as an obvious choice compared to $50 - $100k for DC charging, even before considering demand charges.
I doubt that a "slow" Tesla Megacharging solution will cost that much. I think a 12 stall Supercharger site costs ~$250k. Though I guess that would be ~$80k for a single ~360kW stall. But maybe they will make a custom ~100kW single stall solution that would be closer to $30k.

But in reality, they probably have enough orders for the 500 mile range, where the purchaser wants 4+ Megachargers on site to eat up the next couple years of production.

tl;dr: It may be that people that only need ~100 miles of range per day with AC charging will be better off buying a Semi from the "competition".
 
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But maybe they will make a custom ~100kW single stall solution
Even a 72 kW solution like they have already built might be a good solution
For 480v 3phase, that would be kW = 0.83 * Amps, so about 66 kW using a 100Amp circuit

How cheap can they be ?

Or perhaps 480V 3 phase AC OBC rated for 100 Amps. Perhaps they could use their current EU boards in triplicate
 
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One of the big advantages that trucking has over rail is that the trucks aren't restricted to operating on rail lines. Having the option to AC charge would maintain that freedom of operation advantage. At least until the DC charging networks are as matured as today's diesel pump network.
 
Even a 72 kW solution like they have already built might be a good solution
For 480v 3phase, that would be kW = 0.83 * Amps, so about 66 kW using a 100Amp circuit

How cheap can they be ?
First, it was actually just a standard 150kW V2 cabinet just split evenly between two stalls, instead of giving priority to the first car plugged in. (This has since been changed and all V2 now split evenly if two cars are plugged in.)

Second, that was the V2 Superchargers that were built using a stack of the original Model S AC chargers. I don't think they make it anymore.

Maybe once they start making the 300 mile range Semi, and they no longer have enough demand for "full" Megachargers they will make a "baby" Megacharger. But I suspect they probably won't. (Or maybe people would be able to buy a third-party MCS charger, assuming that Tesla will move the Semi to the final MCS connector design, once it has been ratified.)
 
That is my guess too. A 100 Amp L2 branch circuit is good for about 20 kW, or about 100 miles of driving a day if overnight charging is 10 hours. Put in two to double the daily range. If the use case fits it strikes me as an obvious choice compared to $50 - $100k for DC charging, even before considering demand charges.
I bet a lot of truckers will want to rent a Semi for a while before committing to buy (likely with a long lead time for delivery). I bet a rental option will appear in the market to rent a Semi for a week or a month on a 'try-out' basis. Not necessarily rent from Tesla, maybe from somebody addressing that need. And in that case the ability to 'just' charge - however slowly - off a 100A x 230V 1ph outlet would be very handy.
 
I bet a lot of truckers will want to rent a Semi for a while before committing to buy (likely with a long lead time for delivery). I bet a rental option will appear in the market to rent a Semi for a week or a month on a 'try-out' basis. Not necessarily rent from Tesla, maybe from somebody addressing that need. And in that case the ability to 'just' charge - however slowly - off a 100A x 230V 1ph outlet would be very handy.
100A*230V = 23kW / 2kWh (efficiently and mileage) = 12 miles per hour * 20 = 240 miles per day with 4 hours of 60 MPH driving
 
I bet a lot of truckers will want to rent a Semi for a while before committing to buy (likely with a long lead time for delivery). I bet a rental option will appear in the market to rent a Semi for a week or a month on a 'try-out' basis. Not necessarily rent from Tesla, maybe from somebody addressing that need. And in that case the ability to 'just' charge - however slowly - off a 100A x 230V 1ph outlet would be very handy.
Didn't Tesla say that they were working with the Semi customers to make sure they got adequate charging installed where needed along with purchasing the Semi? I don't see that there will be any need to have rental Teslas. I'm not saying that some people won't have the desire to rent one, but Tesla has all the demand they need, and I don't see how renting a Semi that you can't actual use would be of any help. (Unless the rental agency was close to your business and had Megachargers installed for you to use. But coordinating that use with multiple rental customers would likely be painful.)
 
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Our plan for the semi is to simply do local runs and all charging at the mill, it can do a daily route (2-4 trips) and then recharge overnight with cheap power. To maximize savings fuel costs management is critical, which means you have to charge at the lowest price possible- a location where you can negotiate night near wholesale pricing. Secondly you can't afford to leave them stranded anywhere. So, you'll manage runs to always have a large buffer. For now the truck has a role and that is local runs. Most of those are well short of 100 miles. Very few trucks actually run out over 200 miles one way. If that is need we'll just broker that out (and we do quite a few of those but say 2 per week). Semi is local and that is awesome.

Interestingly it also has the greatest impact on air pollution as they will be reducing pollution loads on a metro region. Long distance trucking has minimal impact on local air pollution problem areas.

As a company that uses nearly 2500 gallons of diesel a week we are thrilled at the chance to have a significant reduction in both costs and environmental impacts. It's going to cut our diesel bill by 30-40% and that alone will pay for the truck if we charge at night. It is NOT going to replace our long distance trucking for several years yet. Much like Tesla itself transitioning trucking is a serious of continuous incremental improvements, we cut every chance we get (from a Ford Lightning to the Tesla semi when we can buy one). I think what's really critical for now is to get the factory build done and then keep the truck as simple as possible to keep production as high as possible, costs as low as possible. Just get trucks on the road. You can go 10 years before you even need long distance solutions. Those years will transform trucking and lay the groundwork for long distance trucking.

My company makes daily runs from LA metro to San Diego to pick up and deliver. The Semi's range is our sweet spot. As you said, the Semi, or more precisely the current charging infrastructure, isn't built for long-haul trucking. When a truck is carrying freight from coast to coast, it cannot afford to make a multiple-hour charging stop, and cannot afford to pay for 3rd party megachargers either, assuming that megachargers charge at least what superchargers are currently charging (heh no pun intended). When the only economically viable charging location is your own yard, only P&D makes sense. As I shared with @Gigapress before, P&D is also where the maintenance cost and fuel cost advantages are the most pronounced, since city roads are much more damaging to the truck and consume much more fuel per mile than highways.
It's great to hear from people actually involved in trucking. Would a real-world range of 300 miles work for either of you? Do you swap trailers daily, or does one trailer pretty much stick with one tractor? Who handles routine maintenance and unexpected repairs?

If the use case fits it strikes me as an obvious choice compared to $50 - $100k for DC charging, even before considering demand charges.
Why would converting from AC to DC inside the truck be vastly cheaper than doing it in the depot? Especially since a single depot charger can supply multiple trucks.
 
Why would converting from AC to DC inside the truck be vastly cheaper than doing it in the depot? Especially since a single depot charger can supply multiple trucks.

Why does your EV have an OBC ? It comes down to flexibility and scale. DC chargers are $100k+, while an OBC starts at somewhere around $1,000. If DC chargers were make in the millions I'm sure the conclusions would be different
 
Not necessarily rent from Tesla, maybe from somebody addressing that need. And in that case the ability to 'just' charge - however slowly - off a 100A x 230V 1ph outlet would be very handy.

Nice idea -- I hope it happens.
To the extent that trucks are just cars that use 6x the energy per mile, if L2 at 16A is a useful minimum for car, then L2 at 100A would do the same for a truck.

Which reminds me again that I am jealous of the EU/UK 3Phase grid.
 
Nice idea -- I hope it happens.
To the extent that trucks are just cars that use 6x the energy per mile, if L2 at 16A is a useful minimum for car, then L2 at 100A would do the same for a truck.

Which reminds me again that I am jealous of the EU/UK 3Phase grid.
Don't be jealous of the UK one, only of the Continental one.

In the UK single phase to dwellings is the norm, albeit at 220/240V; and many commercial locations are also on single phase. Elsewhere in the Continent it is fairly common to get three phase to dwellings, and ordinarily to all commercial locations.

It has all got to do with the discount rate used to evaluate the original grid build out programmes back in the 1930s and 1950s - the UK/AUS/USA/CAN/NZ used high discount rates and so they chose single phase distribution. In contrast the more statist economies applied lower discount rates in their economic evaluations and so chose three phase grids.

But we all got the voltage right enough, i.e. 220/240V (at 1ph) or 415/440V (at 3ph) give or take the permissible variation which overlaps enough.
 
Why does your EV have an OBC ? It comes down to flexibility and scale. DC chargers are $100k+, while an OBC starts at somewhere around $1,000. If DC chargers were make in the millions I'm sure the conclusions would be different
I think it's more about power level than scale. Here's a 10 kW DC charger for $2800.

A cheap 7.2 kW OBC isn't at all useful for a Semi. And high power OBCs aren't sold in millions of units, so the scale argument falls flat.