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Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by Wiki, Aug 31, 2016.
Very interesting... Any idea how this vaguely stacks up to other manufacturers?
Yes I perform tire replacements here in town for 6 years now with no issues. The local people are great. So is the service center but the SC is 200 miles away.
@3s-a-charm, I haven't looked into that. I wasn't trying to compare Tesla to other car manufacturers. Looking at the data, I can think of 3 comparisons that make sense:
1. Comparing countries to each other.
2. Comparing quarters within the same country.
3. Comparing the increase in latest quarter to overall numbers. For example, Tesla is now at 1068 vehicles per service center globally, but if you look at just Q2 2016 numbers, it was 14,402/5= 2,880 in Q2. It looks like Tesla is seriously holding back on spending money for new service centers. The reason might be because they are trying to make the company profitable this quarter (source) before raising more money.
interesting data and graphs, thanks for preparing/presenting them.
I can see at least one set of data that reflects the value of EV incentives, or more specifically what happens if the government decides to reduce/eliminate them.
I just came back from a trip to Scandinavia and while there noticed an unexpectedly large number of Model S in Copenhagen. Small city and most people ride bikes, but walking around the city for any given half-hour period and you're sure to spot at least half a dozen different Teslas driving around. I knew that Norway had a huge Tesla customer base, but didn't know Denmark did.
I learned from talking to the guy at the Copenhagen Tesla Store there that Denmark has huge taxes on all cars: 25% VAT + 150%(!! - and previously 180%!) licencing tax - no wonder everybody there rides a bike! Prior to this year, EVs were completely exempt from the licencing tax, but as of Jan 1/16 the licencing tax on EV is being phased back in from 0% last year, to 20-ish% this year, and eventually returning it to be same as all ICE cars in a few years. So a huge spike in Model S purchases in Denmark during late 2015 before losing the tax exemption Jan 1st - interesting to see the corresponding big jump in the graph.
There have been a few cases around the world in which incentives changed radically both up and down. I recall seeing data (I forgot where) that Georgia USA has EV sales drop radically when incentives were eliminated. Logically Tesla should be less affected than are other manufacturers, but still significantly. The Ontario incentives have been changed to be value-based IIRC, so tesla will have much lower incentives than will less spectacular (i.e. expensive) vehicles. There are also a few jurisdictions which are adopting means tests.
yeah here in British Columbia the provincial government recently eliminated the $5k rebate completely on EV purchases for any EV costing more than C$77k (suspciously targeted at Tesla, presumably since Tesla buyers must be "rich").
Washington State had no sales tax on EVs until a little over a year ago. Then they changes the law so only cars worth less than $32K could get it, and changed it again this year so cars under $42,500 MSRP get it. Early on Washington was one of the top states for Tesla sales, but I think that has dropped off sharply.
Back on topic... I think it is somewhat relevant to compare the number of Tesla Service Centres to those of other manufacturers as a gauge of whether there is a major difference between the availability of service for Tesla vehicles. My initial gut guess was that there are a lot more GM service Centres but there are a lot of GMs out there. Would be interesting to see if there is a radical difference or if (potentially?) there are more SC per Tesla than other manufacturers and we actually have it pretty good?
There are way more places to service other manfacturers' cars. There are both dealerships *and* independent repair shops. There's only one GM dealership in Ithaca, but I know of 5 places to service a GM car in Ithaca, off the top of my head. (Not including tire shops and body shops.) Ithaca serves an area with only about 100,000 people -- go further away than that and you'll find another GM dealer.
Most of the problem is simply geographic. There's a service center within an hour's drive for almost all makes of car, no matter where you are. Tesla doesn't have this. The other part of the problem -- overcrowded service centers -- seems to only be happening in a couple of places, and I think the wait times are sufficient to demonstrate that those places (Denmark most urgently) need expansion or more service centers. With Denmark getting so bad that former employees are trying to open their own service center, it's obvious they need more there.
Here's one way to look at it. Each car is supposed to go in for annual service. If they work M-F, minus federal holidays (250 days per year) and each annual service takes a half of a workday (an underestimate), then each service tech and each bay can handle at *most* 500 cars for annual service. If none of the cars have anything wrong with them. Say something goes wrong with 25% of the cars each year and it takes a day to fix. Then 1000 cars requires 3 bays, 2 for annual service and 1 for minor repairs. But say 5% of cars come in with serious problems and take 5 days to fix. Then 1000 cars uses 4 bays. This is still ridiculously optimistic.
I know Tesla likes to push its employees to work longer hours and work faster, but for a 4-bay service center, I'd say anything over 750 cars per service center is dangerous at this point, and anything over 800 cars per service center is clearly creating problems. I'd say they need slightly more than 1 bay & 1 tech for every 200 cars. For 500000 cars they need at least 2500 bays, so they'll want that ready before 2018.
I write for Teslarati (& own a Tesla) and wondered if I can source these numbers and source them to you?
Grant (Grant Gerke, Author at TESLARATI.com)
Not speaking for @Troy or his analysis, but if you do publish, you may want to consider some of the caveats posts by @JonMc in this thread.
You can use the data as you wish but I don't recommend comparing countries to each other because in some countries Tesla might have larger service centers, more technicians per service center or more shifts.
◘ For example, this kind of comparison is not recommended:
At the end of Q2 2016, both France and the UK had 4 service centers but France had 1,468 Teslas on the road, vs 3,451 in the UK.
◘ However, this comparison makes more sense:
At the end of Q1 2016, Tesla had 61 service centers and 71,808 vehicles in the US. After Q2 2016, it was 61 service centers and 80,930 Teslas. As of today, on 19th September 2016, Tesla still has 61 service centers in the US but the number of Teslas has increased to 90,913.
If @JonMc or somebody else from Tesla is reading this, I recommend publishing wait times for each service center. This has 3 advantages:
1. It would allow people to select the least crowded service center near them.
2. When news blogs publish articles about this, the examples they mention might be worse than the average experience.
3. People are curious about this subject but without more data, there will be lots of speculative articles.
1. Tesla sales in California are published by CNCDA.org.
2. A list of data sources for Tesla Europe registrations can be found HERE. The data collected from those sources is available HERE.
3. Tesla publishes global total sales after each quarter in shareholder letters but normally they don't break it down by region, except THIS shareholder letter which included 2014 and 2015 Tesla USA sales.
4. Tesla's quarterly sales by region can be found HERE. It includes many estimates.
5. I recently added wait times that I could find in the forum. For example, in California section, under some quarters it says 55, 45, 48, 45, 32 days. These are wait times people have mentioned in various forum topics. You can click on these number to open the data source. These wait times are for non-critical issues that don't prevent driving the vehicle.
Let me know if you have any questions. You can also send me a pm if you prefer. I also don't mind others using this data or the data in my other topic HERE about Superchargers.
That's a tremendous number of cars per service center.
Not sure if things have changed, but Tesla used to provide a free tire rotation in between your annual service appointments--at least if you bought the prepaid 4-year service.
and Troy! It will be and this piqued my interest:
At the end of Q2 2014, there were 29,148 Teslas and 47 service centers in the USA. That's 620 Teslas per service center.
At the end of Q2 2015, there were 49,322 Teslas and 52 service centers in the USA. That's 949 Teslas per service center.
At the end of Q2 2016, there were 80,172 Teslas and 61 service centers in the USA. That's 1,314 Teslas per service center.
Currently, the USA has 62 service centers. Therefore Q3 numbers will be worse. I will update that topic after each quarter.
Hi. Q3 numbers have been added.
Hi, everybody. I have added Q4 2016 numbers. Check out the opening message. In Q4 2016, Tesla opened 2 (1 in the USA and 1 in China) and closed 2 (1 in Italy and 1 in Switzerland) service centers worldwide. Therefore the number of service centers worldwide stayed unchanged at 129.
Here are a few reported wait times for service appointments in Q4:
53 days in Canada. Source Reported by forum member @SSD420
42 days in the USA. Source Reported by forum member @Looking-for-S
60 days in the USA. Source Reported by forum member @Chopr147
Thanks for the update Troy. Always interesting.
I've never waited close to 60 days for an appointment, nor have I logged anything in. I suppose there is some skew due to the represented voice, similar to posting at TMC in general. Many satisfied owners just don't bother. I have noticed more frequent surveys from Tesla though, regarding satisfaction. Short of that, its difficult to access a well rounded sampling ....... unless you've got other thoughts. Or maybe 60 days is absolutely real, and it's the Irish in me bestowing all the luck. Lucky me.
Last appointment I had there was about a 30 day wait.