'Tesla shares sink as car deliveries drop'

[mongo]

If your argument is that Tesla is selling something worth $250K for only $40K, guess what, by selling it at $40K they are lowering it's worth. If anyone can buy a new one for $40K, nobody would pay that or more for the old one, therefore the old one's value is less. Monetary value of any good is based on what someone is willing to pay for said good, usually assessed by average selling price. Nothing is every worth more than what you can easily buy it for.

Yes, many many things are worth more than their price.

Certificate of Deposit are worth more than you pay for them. Bonds are worth more than you pay for them. Crops are worth more than the seeds you buy. A house is worth more than the materials and labor that go into it.
A taxi is a revenue generating vehicle, as such, it is worth more than it costs. Same with planes and ships. Pretty much all manufacturing is worth more than the equipment it uses.

 

[Big Toys]

There are only so many cars you can garage and drive. Yes, they need to be driven so that, as per Elon, they collect the data for every mile and therefore improve FSD, making robotaxi closer to reality. Who better than teenagers to drive the cars to rack up self driving data miles. Just storing them doesn't do it. I am offering you an opportunity for at least one more car you can make money on than you can manage to drive yourself. By saying no, you're turning down up to $200K per car, in just 2 years.


Because, according to Elon, the prices are going up fast. Teslas are appreciating assets, which cannot happen if people can buy a new version for less. So, the only way they stay appreciating assets is if Tesla keeps rising their prices, with target being up to $250K. Imagine what bitcoin price would be if you could still buy it today at the original price. If we assume linear appreciation, Model 3 will cost ~150K next year.

1. Buying TSLA doesn't bring in FSD data miles, so it doesn't help bring robotaxis closer
2. The money actually doesn't even go direct to Tesla, but instead to those who are selling it to you, so you're not really helping Tesla reach their FSD goals.
3. As Teslas are appreciating, and Model 3 prices start moving north towards the forecast $250K, The demand will shrink. $250K is above the price of Model S and X, so maybe look at number of predicted Roadster sales (same price). This means that Tesla revenue will not actually increase 5x as the price does. There will be additional revenue or losses from other businesses, batteries, solar, insurance, vehicles for Boring Tunnels, etc, etc. All those add to uncertainty of the TSLA price. With the car guaranteed to hit $250K in value, you have a low risk 5x return in 2 years (the only risk is whether Elon was right on this one thing).

Does that answer you questions? Keep in mind, all this is assuming Elon is correct. IMHO if he believed his own story, he'd spend majority of his personal billions buying Model 3's and giving them to people to drive, then make 5x the money in 2 years. If would sure help Tesla financial if Elon bought a few billions worth of Model 3's - they might not need to raise money with all the profit they'd make from the sale of Model 3's to Elon. Win-win all around - Tesla gets a sales number boost, Elon more than quadruples his fortune (even more considering that his TSLA sticks will be worth more by some amount).

Yeah, but, but, when prices hit $250K, sales will plummet. I guess this is one time he'd wish he was wrong!

 

[Big Toys]

Similar situation is happening already. In NYC a person can purchase a used Prius for about $15,000. Paint it Yellow Cab color and slap an official Medallion on it and it instantly is worth over $100,000. That is because the car can now be used for transporting people for a fee.

Medallions are not worth as much now, due to saturation and recent Uber/Lyft innovation.

Point being is that once a vehicle can be used to charge paying customers it's value can increase tremendously. The price of the car does not need to go up, just the value. If the car can transport paying customers, and do so without paying the cab driver, the profits will be even greater.

This is not true. It is the medallion that has value, not the car.

 

[Uncle Paul]

The foolish assumption is that the price of the cars will increase. It is the value of the car that will increase.

If Tesla is able to sell a car for $50,000 that can earn it's own $30,000/year in livery service, how many people will be willing to buy a $50,000 car that does not have that capability. Tesla will have people lining up to buy their cars.

A medallion will have no value unless it can be put on a car. The medallion by itself is essentially worthless. Sometimes it will be moved from car to car, however unless it can be put on a car and enable livery it is worthless.

Same with Tesla technology. The software that enables livery service has no value unless it is installed on a vehicle with a full sensory suite and is capable of livery.

It is kind of like a law degree. If you have one, you may sell legal services and make a living. If you do not have a law degree, it is illegal to provide fee for service legal advice. The law degree alone has little economic value unless you put it into productive service.

 

[Big Toys]

The foolish assumption is that the price of the cars will increase. It is the value of the car that will increase.

If Tesla is able to sell a car for $50,000 that can earn it's own $30,000/year in livery service, how many people will be willing to buy a $50,000 car that does not have that capability. Tesla will have people lining up to buy their cars.

A medallion will have no value unless it can be put on a car. The medallion by itself is essentially worthless. Sometimes it will be moved from car to car, however unless it can be put on a car and enable livery it is worthless.

Same with Tesla technology. The software that enables livery service has no value unless it is installed on a vehicle with a full sensory suite and is capable of livery.

The medallion is the thing that makes a car a livery car. A medallion purchased for $100K and put on a Prius makes the Prius a service car. Remove the medallion and you get a yellow Prius that sells like every other used, beat to hell Prius. Remove the medallion and it can be sold, as the medallion has huge value (talking pre-Uber). Livery Tesla may be different, in that the software "medallion" may or may not/cannot? be removed when the car goes to pasture.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

If you believe Elon, racing that P3 in autocross is an investment which will make you money. You could sell the '12 S since it's not FSD capable and get the M3 which will be worth up to $250K in 2-3 years! I don't see how you can afford not to, unless of course you doubt Elon.

Unfortunately I love driving my car. New FSD. Awd cars are just not the same.
The $250k claim is absurd & as a livery vehicle like the website price crap
I do actually trust Elon, he is very ambitious but not s liar. Not sure I could say that if I didn’t meet him on a few earlier occasions

 

[whitex]

Unfortunately I love driving my car. New FSD. Awd cars are just not the same.
The $250k claim is absurd & as a livery vehicle like the website price crap
I do actually trust Elon, he is very ambitious but not s liar. Not sure I could say that if I didn’t meet him on a few earlier occasions

I'm confused. You trust him but you also believe his claims are absurd? So you trust him but don't trust what he says? Do you mean you believe he's genuine but completely insane/irrational (therefore what he promises cannot be trusted)? What do you mean by trust then?

 

[whitex]

Only if the price is in the past. If you can find anything with a lower price this second and it's worth mode the very same second (i.e. you can sell it) you can make unlimited money.

Bonds are worth more than you pay for them.

No they are not, they might be worth more in the future (projected value). The bonds are worth exactly what people are paying for today, which is a function of their maturity date and payout and the trust buyers have today that the issues will be able to pay it (or even be around). That's why $100 5 year junk bond issued today is worth a lot less today than $100 5 year US government also issued today.

But, let's use that example. If you buy a 5 year $100 US government bond, its issue price is of course under $100. HOWEVER, its price the day before maturity day is not going to be much, if any, under $100. So, if you claim that Model 3 will be worth $250K in 2 years, its price in 2 years must rise to $250K as well. Unless of course you're telling me you'll sell me 30 year government bonds maturing today for the price they were issued at 30 years ago, then heck, sign me up, I'll take all you got.

Crops are worth more than the seeds you buy. A house is worth more than the materials and labor that go into it.

Now you're just confusing concepts. A value of a product has little or nothing to do with price of materials and labor you put into it - those usually, but not always, set the price floor, but that's it. A house is worth what people are willing to pay for it, regardless of what materials or how much work you put into it. Notice that house values fluctuate more than material and/labor prices - that's because they are very loosely related.

A taxi is a revenue generating vehicle, as such, it is worth more than it costs. Same with planes and ships. Pretty much all manufacturing is worth more than the equipment it uses.

Now you're totally confusing things. A car is not worth more than what you can buy it, just for because you use it to make money.

That said, it sounds like you are not convinced, so how many Model 3's will you buying for my son and his friends to drive and return to you when they are worth $250K each? You'll be rolling in money once that happens.

 

[Ivan 77]

Apart of being an amazing car, Teslas are a great value here in Norway and this is also due to the so many government incentives - no VAT, no duty, driving in the bus lane, to road fees, etc. But it's naive to think a mass production car will increase it's value - it's not a unique thing. And it won't be able to update older models to latest&greatest. And even the new AI car won't have that value.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

I'm confused. You trust him but you also believe his claims are absurd? So you trust him but don't trust what he says? Do you mean you believe he's genuine but completely insane/irrational (therefore what he promises cannot be trusted)? What do you mean by trust then?

Sure, some claims are absurd but probably true. It is like the website prices they (used to?)show including gas savings. I do trust him. Insane/ irrational is not the same as s good engineer.

 

[AndrewTX]

What does the future hold for the Model S in my timeline ? Speaking as a year long owner of a 2018 P100D, a vehicle which cost a *sugar*-ton and a vehicle which I absolutely love ....

If and when a "reputable" car manufacturer comes out with a suitable EV, its bye bye Tesla for me. I would sacrifice some range and some 0-60 performance to have an EV produced by a manufacturer who: 1) had a service department that I could phone up and have someone answer, 2) had a reliable parts inventory, 3) was somewhat transparent about whats on the horizon (MCU1->MCU2), 4) didn't need an ever changing spread sheet to figure out the state of my software/hardware 5) actually gave a crap about their customers satisfaction, 6) Had people working for them that actually know the hardware/software and 7) had a reputation for reliability and stood behind it.
Honestly, I have not had any major issues with my Tesla, but I consider this just luck at this point. Based on what I read in the forums and stories from people I know, I really don't consider Tesla a reliable company. There is an enormous difference between what I thought the company was one year ago vs. my current perception. I know others feel differently.... I wish I did.

Do as you wish, but at least a couple of these are very strange to me:

1) Why in the world do you need to keep a spreadsheet to track the state of your software/hardware? Has your hardware changed? You never worried about it in any previous car because no other car ever gave you new features after you purchased it. I don't see how this has become a negative.
2) Do other car OEMs tell you when they're going to change the infotainment processor in an upcoming model year?
3) Perhaps base your view of the car on your own experience rather than internet forums.

 

[Dan Baldwin]

Do as you wish, but at least a couple of these are very strange to me:

1) Why in the world do you need to keep a spreadsheet to track the state of your software/hardware? Has your hardware changed? You never worried about it in any previous car because no other car ever gave you new features after you purchased it. I don't see how this has become a negative.

2) Do other car OEMs tell you when they're going to change the infotainment processor in an upcoming model year?
3) Perhaps base your view of the car on your own experience rather than internet forums.

1) Wasn't meant to be taken literally , I don't have a spreadsheet. Its hard to keep track of hardware/software configs and what software features work with what hardware versions. MCU1,MCU2,AP1,AP2,AP2.5,EAP,FSD and who gets what version of firmware and when. Admittedly this isn't a big deal by itself.

2) I did not mean that Tesla changed from MCU1 to MCU 2, I meant the mystery of the possibility for one to upgrade from MCU1 to MCU 2.

3) Seriously ?.. all of your views are based entirely on your personal experience ? I doubt it.
I try to consider others not just myself in determining opinions.

 

[Cheburashka]

There's a huge silent majority of S/X owners who do not post here or anywhere else but who feel neglected by Tesla.

I know two such people. Both have MXs, one is a P100DL that has had a cracked windshield for 6 months now because Tesla can't get the part in. The other one was in a small fender bender and it took 9 months to fix his car. They'll be looking elsewhere for their next cars. One already ordered an etron.

 

[Ivan 77]

Yeah, that's a shame to create such an amazing car in every aspect, so brave for it's time and to be failing on such a relatively trivial thing as customer support! In Norway people are usually very patient, but I start to hear so often 'how's the support?' and wondering how Tesla could go so wrong with it. Almost need to beg to pay $200 per hour. Will be fixed, I'm sure

 

[whitex]

Sure, some claims are absurd but probably true. It is like the website prices they (used to?)show including gas savings. I do trust him. Insane/ irrational is not the same as s good engineer.

So you think his claim that a Model 3 with FSD will be worth $250K in 2 years is "absurd but probably true"? What probability are you assigning to this?

 

[AndrewTX]

1) Wasn't meant to be taken literally , I don't have a spreadsheet. Its hard to keep track of hardware/software configs and what software features work with what hardware versions. MCU1,MCU2,AP1,AP2,AP2.5,EAP,FSD and who gets what version of firmware and when. Admittedly this isn't a big deal by itself.

2) I did not mean that Tesla changed from MCU1 to MCU 2, I meant the mystery of the possibility for one to upgrade from MCU1 to MCU 2.

3) Seriously ?.. all of your views are based entirely on your personal experience ? I doubt it.
I try to consider others not just myself in determining opinions.

2) I still don't see how that's a huge negative for Tesla. Have you ever even considered the possibility of swapping out and upgrading a processor in your automobile previously?

3) No, but I don't consider posts on Internet forums to be an accurate representation of reality, either. People don't post about positive experiences with anywhere near the frequency they post complaints.

 

[rooter]

So you think his claim that a Model 3 with FSD will be worth $250K in 2 years is "absurd but probably true"? What probability are you assigning to this?

Do try to keep your jealousy of Elon to yourself, whitex. It reeks in all of your posts. Don't believe me? Just look back.

Life Lesson# 682: POLITICS, is not the same as SCIENCE. A slimy layer, is not the same as objective fact. Seeing things through a political lens is delusional.

Spend a little more energy making your OWN thing, like progressive people do.

 

[whitex]

Do try to keep your jealousy of Elon to yourself, whitex. It reeks in all of your posts. Don't believe me? Just look back.

Life Lesson# 682: POLITICS, is not the same as SCIENCE. A slimy layer, is not the same as objective fact. Seeing things through a political lens is delusional.

Spend a little more energy making your OWN thing, like progressive people do.

Huh, you totally confused me. How is asking someone to clarify what they mean by "absurd but probably true" qualify as a political statement? Or is asking for clarifications or facts some new kind of anti-progressive thing to do nowadays (sorry, I am not keeping up with politics much, never have)?

 

[JPoldo]

I think the recent announcement of ms/mx adaptive suspension and 10% increase in range should help deliveries a little. But feel it's more like a "dribble" than a "splash." To really boost sales they should combine it with an interior refresh and at least 3 years of free SC use. How about additional blind spot warnings in side mirrors, air conditioned front seats, and cordless phone charging. Surely there's another luxury option that many buyers want. I won't ask for the 4 program massage on my wife's Mercedes. Sadly, ms no longer has a sun roof, losing one more differentiation with model 3.

 

[Zero CO2]

Or maybe... just maybe... word has gotten out that the Model 3 is ~80% the same car for ~50% the price of the Model S (and the Y will be the same as compared to the X). In fact, it's better in multiple ways. Honestly hard for most people to justify that "upgrade". Sure, the Model S offers some things the 3 doesn't, but the 3 is clearly a far better value.

agree with this 100% ... for me I wanted a Telsa back in early 2017 and was not willing to wait 1.5 years for an M3 ... however Tesla needs the S and X to succeed and better differentiate the S, X from the 3, Y , these are Tesla high profit generating top of the line vehicles and need to capture the high end of the market ...