Tesla Solar Roof in Canada

[iKhalid]

Yesterday, I went on the US version of the Tesla website and entered an address of a detached house that looks like our average home builder houses in Canada. Nothing fancy, just a 2000sq ft 2-level detached. Something similar to a house I recently bought in Ottawa.
I sincerely was hoping to see an affordable estimate since Elon mentioned that it would cost less than the standard roof (normally costs CAD$15,000 for such a size), but the number was not even close!

What I got is CAD$67,000, and that doesn't even include a Powerwall! An average home buying cannot afford such a roof! I don't care if it's going to pay for itself in 30 years because the initial investment is just insane!

I honestly hope that they revise their pricing, otherwise, I doubt that this product would ever be successful.

 

[phigment]

Yesterday, I went on the US version of the Tesla website and entered an address of a detached house that looks like our average home builder houses in Canada. Nothing fancy, just a 2000sq ft 2-level detached. Something similar to a house I recently bought in Ottawa.
I sincerely was hoping to see an affordable estimate since Elon mentioned that it would cost less than the standard roof (normally costs CAD$15,000 for such a size), but the number was not even close!

What I got is CAD$67,000, and that doesn't even include a Powerwall! An average home buying cannot afford such a roof! I don't care if it's going to pay for itself in 30 years because the initial investment is just insane!

I honestly hope that they revise their pricing, otherwise, I doubt that this product would ever be successful.

I think the disparity comes from the definition of "normal" roof. Was your comparison against a steel/tile roof? Or just a standard asphalt?

Also, how long will this $15K roof last? If you have to replace it once in there, that means you're now up $30K.

 

[iKhalid]

I think the disparity comes from the definition of "normal" roof. Was your comparison against a steel/tile roof? Or just a standard asphalt?

Also, how long will this $15K roof last? If you have to replace it once in there, that means you're now up $30K.

In Tesla's comparison videos, they never compared against steel/tile roofs. So I've always assumed the standard shingles (asphalt, etc).

 

[S'toon]

Actually what Elon originally said, which most people seem to forget, is the cost of the roof will be the less than the cost of replacing the roof and the electricity for 20 years, or something like that.

 

[mrElbe]

My recollection is that he said it would be comparable to replacing the roof AND installing solar panels. Also the advertised "20 year" asphalt shingle roof on average only lasts 8 to 10 years.

 

[iKhalid]

Actually what Elon originally said, which most people seem to forget, is the cost of the roof will be the less than the cost of replacing the roof and the electricity for 20 years, or something like that.

Regardless, I don't think the product is going to be popular. Regular Solar panels are much cheaper.

I expected it to be a breakthrough, but with these prices, it's too hard to swallow.

 

[S'toon]

Regardless, I don't think the product is going to be popular. Regular Solar panels are much cheaper.

I expected it to be a breakthrough, but with these prices, it's too hard to swallow.

Agreed.

 

[wayner]

$60k would add about 5% to the price of the average Toronto detached house which is pretty insane in its own right.

Do we have any government incentives for this type of roof in Ontario. And for that price what is the rated capacity on kW?

 

[sandpiper]

Actually what Elon originally said, which most people seem to forget, is the cost of the roof will be the less than the cost of replacing the roof and the electricity for 20 years, or something like that.

Elon mentioned tile roofs - not asphalt. BIG difference.

I think they'll see a market in high end homes, for folks that want solar, but not the "solar panel look". But no... this won't replace asphalt roofs anytime soon.

 

[Cebe]

That's 2000 sq.ft. of the roof (e.g., 50' x 40' house footprint), and 70% of the tiles? I imagine if I was pricing it, that I'd look at less than 50% (south facing only, then not all of them because of the limitations), and my 2000 sq.ft. house only has ~1000 sq.ft. of the roof, which ends up being 20k USD. Not cheap, but starting to get in line as to what the solar panels were 10 years ago + the roof

 

[iKhalid]

That's 2000 sq.ft. of the roof (e.g., 50' x 40' house footprint), and 70% of the tiles? I imagine if I was pricing it, that I'd look at less than 50% (south facing only, then not all of them because of the limitations), and my 2000 sq.ft. house only has ~1000 sq.ft. of the roof, which ends up being 20k USD. Not cheap, but starting to get in line as to what the solar panels were 10 years ago + the roof

Yes, 2000sq.ft is for the whole house, so the roof should be around 1000sq.ft.

 

[wayner]

But it is not clear how any govt incentives work into this equation. Has anyone figured that out yet? And the quotes that I have seen don't mention an inverter but do mention a PowerWall battery. Why do you need a battery?

Can you put solar panels on your roof in Ontario and not go on either net metering or microFIT? That might make more sense if you always use more than you consume as if you are on net metering you have to go on tiered rates rather than TOU and the power that your cells generate will primarily come during the peak period, at least on weekdays. Currently tiered rates are $.091/kWh for the first 600kWhs and $.106 thereafter. The current peak is $.157 - which is down about 2-3 cents from the peak in the previous six months.

 

[Canuck]

Regardless, I don't think the product is going to be popular. Regular Solar panels are much cheaper.

Regardless, I don't think the Model S will be popular. A Nissan Leaf is much cheaper.

I don't care if it's going to pay for itself in 30 years because the initial investment is just insane!

So don't get one. For some people the initial investment is worth it. Also, for some, they look at that investment beyond being just a financial one but also as an investment in their children's future. Those people will drive the price down, like S/X owners are doing in relation to the Model 3.

The ironic thing is that your same argument was made in relation to solar panels themselves years ago.

 

[wayner]

It is going to take a while to figure out exactly how all of this works and how it fits into the regulatory regime which is likely very different in each province and, IMHO, WAY more complicated than EV subsidies. But we will likely have time to figure it out since it seems unlikely that they will start installing them in Canada in 2017 since you only have about 5 months to get your act together. So I would guess that Canadian installations would start around March-April of next year when the roofing season begins. In Ontario it might be nice to start this year, or at least get your permit, as you may be able to get into the microFIT program.

 

[iKhalid]

Regardless, I don't think the Model S will be popular. A Nissan Leaf is much cheaper.



So don't get one. For some people the initial investment is worth it. Also, for some, they look at that investment beyond being just a financial one but also as an investment in their children's future. Those people will drive the price down, like S/X owners are doing in relation to the Model 3.

The ironic thing is that your same argument was made in relation to solar panels themselves years ago.

The Model S was a breakthrough because there was no car like it: long range, full size, and the price somewhat competed with some existing luxury ICE offerings.

30 years ago, Solar panels were expensive because the technology was expensive, and there was nothing like it. I can assure you many people were excited until Tesla made the pricing public, because Tesla gave the impression that the pricing will be comparable with a regular roof; was it my fault that I got confused or misunderstood? Maybe, but it was the case with so many people too.

Secondly, unlike the Model S, I can still go and purchase the conventional Solar panels for a similar gain except for the looks. I look at the Tesla roof as Lucid Air and not Tesla Model S. At least Lucid air didn't confuse people, and they made it clear from day one that it's a luxury electric car.

Tesla roof is a luxury roof! Regular Solar panels make more sense investment-wise.

 

[wayner]

This is a little different than solar panels since this is a roofing material as well. On an economic basis it only works if you also consider the cost of a new roof into the equation. Therefore the target market is new homes and people who need to replace their roofs and are interested in solar tiles and who have a home that is suitable in terms of roof size and amount of sunshine. That is a smaller market.

Solar panels are also more complex when it comes to government subsidies. If you were installing this as part of the microFIT program there would be all kinds of issues like: you can't have a battery, you can't have more than 10kW of panels, what is included in the capital cost of the project for CCA purposes - are the "dummy" tiles part of this, etc.

 

[Canuck]

Tesla roof is a luxury roof! Regular Solar panels make more sense investment-wise.

The Model S is a luxury vehicle. A Nissan Leaf makes more sense investment wise.

Secondly, unlike the Model S, I can still go and purchase the conventional Solar panels for a similar gain except for the looks.

Much like the Model S vs. the Leaf. So for you, solar panels make more sense. For others, perhaps not. The market determines the price. Blaming Tesla for where they start with their price point makes no sense to me. If I see something for which the price makes no sense to me, I just give it a pass.

I honestly hope that they revise their pricing, otherwise, I doubt that this product would ever be successful.

This is where we disagree. I say Tesla's solar roof will be the roof of the future. It had to start somewhere and usually when you do it right it costs more but with time costs come down.

 

[iKhalid]

The Model S is a luxury vehicle. A Nissan Leaf makes more sense investment wise.

Nissan leaf doesn't make sense at all in a lot of cases with its humble range. Can you have a road trip comfortably with a Nissan Leaf 4 years ago? I haven’t even seen a taxi Leaf. So no, it doesn't make sense investment-wise.

Obviously, you're not getting the point. You're being defensive just because I'm criticising Tesla's new roof.

Tesla is more like Google where they want their products to be affordable for everyone as much as possible (Tesla's mission and vision?) unlike Apple, where they're only targeting the upper middle class and above. I was sharing my opinion with that in mind. And most of the early adopters supported Tesla for that reason.
Tesla is expensive just because of the battery and their advanced technology. If you want luxury, get an S-Class for the money.

Anyway, if Tesla really cares about sustainability and they want many homes to have their new roof, they have to revise their prices and make it closer to the conventional solar panels at least. At this point and after purchasing SolarCity, I think they can. They're not a startup anymore.

 

[wayner]

Anyway, if Tesla really cares about sustainability and they want many homes to have their new roof, they have to revise their prices and make it closer to the conventional solar panels at least. At this point and after purchasing SolarCity, I think they can. They're not a startup anymore.

Do you think that they are selling these tiles with a huge profit margin? If not then how do they revise prices? Are you saying they should sell a product at a significant negative gross profit margin? That is not a blueprint for success? Or should they just withdraw the product from the market until they can sell it for substantially cheaper than their current price?

 

[iKhalid]

Do you think that they are selling these tiles with a huge profit margin? If not then how do they revise prices? Are you saying they should sell a product at a significant negative gross profit margin? That is not a blueprint for success? Or should they just withdraw the product from the market until they can sell it for substantially cheaper than their current price?

Well, let's not jump to the extremes here. If you read what I wrote previously, I wrote something about pricing it closer to the conventional panels.
What you're saying is just an assumption. We don't know the profit margin, yet.

I look at the new Tesla roof as a repackaged regular Solar panel. It still consists of the main components: glass, solar cells, junction boxes, connectors, etc. They've been selling these panels cheaper as SolarCity in the past as regular panels, so I "assume" the new smaller panels, or "tiles" can be priced closer to the regular Solar panels.