Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

[airj1012]

I believe this new product has nothing to do with owning a Tesla or solar panels. Here is my speculation from 2 months ago.

New stationary grid storage product from Tesla this year

This recent post validates my speculation, if its correct.

I'm surprised the numbers were released. I imagine that they had to sign documents so this information didn't leak. We'll find out soon enough!

Tesla Home Battery Details Emerge - Gas 2

 

[doctoxics]

The contribution to annual revenue of the 15 gwh (15,000,000 kwh) of battery storage produced by the Gigafactory is significant? Based on $13,000 for a 10 kwh home storage product, the total annual revenue would be:

15,000,000 kwh/10 kwh = 1,500,000 units x $13,000/unit = $18,500,000,000 or 18.5 billion dollars of revenue per year by 2020.

 

[Newb]

Don't know if this short clip has been posted yet, but very nice real-world example and evidence how effective the home battery is during power outtages:
Tesla Back Up Battery During Power Outtage - SolarCity Black Out - YouTube


---

Just found the competition on youtube:
The solar storage solution from Bosch - film version for professionals (English) - YouTube

No wonder, it's Bosch.

 

[atang]

Thanks very much for this information Newb, I guess this is really happening! Yay! :biggrin:

 

[Newb]

You're welcome.

I've come across some very interesting post from jhm in a different thread which I'll cross-post here, so that we can discuss the implications:

[quote is from 70D thread]
Now consider this if the new Model S line is priced around $1200 per kWh with a GM of 30%. That is gross profit of $360/kWh. This gives us a major clue about how Tesla may need to price stationary IF stationary is drawing on the same supply as automotive. This is a big IF. It may well be wrong, but just for kicks lets see what it may imply. Under this condition, the profit per kWh needs also be $360; otherwise, Tesla should put the supply in cars and get a better return. So let's say at this point Tesla's cost per kWh is $170 and to round our the package with other added value components is $20 per kWh. Then the selling price should be around $5500 for a 10 kWh home storage device. I'm not so sure that will fly. Even at Gigafactory prices of $100/kWh, you still can't get around the $360 profit hurdle. So the only way I see stationary working is if the battery supply for stationary is obsolete for automotive use. So this is direct contradiction to our big IF. Stationary becomes a wonderful business for making use of production line of cells that have become obsolete for automotive. As Tesla plows ahead with advancing battery technology, the stationary market aids with planned obsolescence over the life of cell lines. Perhaps profit of $60/ kWh is attractive and a 10 kWh home battery can be priced attractively at $2500. We shall see on April 30.

Just to make sure we understand the implications if those numbers are in the right ballpark. The Bosch Power Tec energy storage system with 11kwh costs 20,000 € (~21,000$) here in Germany (Source: maxx solarshop - Bosch Power Tec - Speichersysteme) . The Samsung SDI ESS 3.6 kwh all-in-one storage costs 7,300 € (~7,700$) (Source: maxx solarshop - Samsung SDI - Solarspeicher). Those packs include inverters and electronics, though.

A selling price of 5,500 $ for a 10 kwh Tesla battery (+ 1,000 $ inverter/etc.) would radically impact on current residential energy storage market. Even if Tesla sold the whole storage system for 10,000$, this would be roughly half the price of the Bosch Power Tec or Samsuns SDI ESS system. .... it'd be a no-brainer to get that Tesla storage system to couple that with your PV on the rooftop - especially here in Germany. Most homeowners with a PV shy away from energy storage because it's so expensive.

P.S.: In order to be able to measure potential impact on prices, here's one more example of residential solar energy storage in Germany:

RWE Storage Eco 13,5
-13,5kwh, 10,5 kwh usable
-260kg / 570lbs weight
-price tag April 11th 2015: 16,999 € ($18,000)
-it seems that this storage comes without the inverter
-only 2 year full product guarantee
Sources: RWE Storage eco - der kostengünstige Einstieg in die Solarstromspeicherung mit Lithium-Ionen-Technik. & RWE Energiekaufhaus - Preise Storage Compact

...just to have those numbers ready for April 30th.

 

[GSP]

Don't know if this short clip has been posted yet, but very nice real-world example and evidence how effective the home battery is during power outtages:
Tesla Back Up Battery During Power Outtage - SolarCity Black Out - YouTube


---

Just found the competition on youtube:
The solar storage solution from Bosch - film version for professionals (English) - YouTube

No wonder, it's Bosch.

Thanks for the link to the Bosch video. I like their completely integrated solution with the solar inverter and energy management system. The information displayed on the smartphone app is also very nice.

It will be interesting to compare pricing and features with Tesla's new residential storage battery after Tesla's April 30 announcement.

GSP

PS. In response to all the previous discussion about DC fast charging your car battery directly from your residential storage battery, it is not possible to do a direct DC to DC connection. If this were done the two batteries would quickly transfer energy to equalize their voltages. If the voltages are not close, the current will be catastrophicly high.

Therefore a DC-DC converter will be used to allow controlled charging of the car battery. How do DC-DC converters work? By converting DC to high frequency AC then back to DC. This is more efficient than using 60 Hz AC, but still has significant energy loss as waste heat.

 

[Newb]

I've got to add some thoughts on jhm's estimates/calculations because I think battery storage could become a profit booster for TM.

If stationary storage kwh costs for TM are at about $200 per kwh and the current retail price for 1 kwh stationary storage is at $1,000-$1,500 (given the examples from the competition I posted above), there's room for more gross profit than the mentioned $360 per kwh. Let's say Tesla would put a $8,000 dollar price tag (excl. taxes) on its mass-produced 10kwh home battery (which would be 20-40% below the price tag of current home batteries). => Even if total cost for the finished and delivered Tesla battery pack was $4,000, this would translate into $400 gross profit per kwh.

Does that make sense? Did I miss something?

 

[Johan]

I've got to add some thoughts on jhm's estimates/calculations because I think battery storage could become a profit booster for TM.

If stationary storage kwh costs for TM are at about $200 per kwh and the current retail price for 1 kwh stationary storage is at $1,000-$1,500 (given the examples from the competition I posted above), there's room for more gross profit than the mentioned $360 per kwh. Let's say Tesla would put a $8,000 dollar price tag (excl. taxes) on its mass-produced 10kwh home battery (which would be 20-40% below the price tag of current home batteries). => Even if total cost for the finished and delivered Tesla battery pack was $4,000, this would translate into $400 gross profit per kwh.

Does that make sense? Did I miss something?

I don't think you're missing anything. This could be a huge margin market for the first years. What we don't know is how much margin the competitors are taking right now, since the market is in its infancy yet.

Thanks for posting the two videos above, I found them really interesting. I would have hoped we get an early owner of a Tesla/Solarcity system on this board to share their experiences. I think the Bosch system seems very nice and well designed too. I wonder where Bosch are buying their batteries?

 

[Newb]

I don't think you're missing anything. This could be a huge margin market for the first years. What we don't know is how much margin the competitors are taking right now, since the market is in its infancy yet.

Thanks for posting the two videos above, I found them really interesting. I would have hoped we get an early owner of a Tesla/Solarcity system on this board to share their experiences. I think the Bosch system seems very nice and well designed too. I wonder where Bosch are buying their batteries?

cheers. Bosch is supplied by Saft Groupe - a French battery manufacturer founded in 1918. Here's the source:
Saft Li-ion batteries start rolling out to Germany’s residential PV market within Bosch’s hybrid intelligent energy management and storage solution | Saft


--

found another gem on youtube:
Energy Storage panel - European Utility Week 2014 - YouTube

must-see video imho. The Samsung SDI representative is basically saying the same as J.B. . Most interesting part at 10:25-12:30 .

and official marketing vid for Samsung SDI ESS:
Samsung SDIs ESS - YouTube

 

[Newb]

Interesting take-away from the latter video at 5:41 ... pack-level costs per kwh are 1.5x higher than cell-level cost per kwh. If cells cost $200, then battery pack should be around $350 per kwh. The projection is kind of old, though, from early 2013.

 

[atang]

cheers. Bosch is supplied by Saft Groupe - a French battery manufacturer founded in 1918. Here's the source:
Saft Li-ion batteries start rolling out to Germany’s residential PV market within Bosch’s hybrid intelligent energy management and storage solution | Saft


--

found another gem on youtube:
Energy Storage panel - European Utility Week 2014 - YouTube

must-see video imho. The Samsung SDI representative is basically saying the same as J.B. . Most interesting part at 10:25-12:30 .

and official marketing vid for Samsung SDI ESS:
Samsung SDIs ESS - YouTube

@Newb,
+1 Great info AGAIN!
, Thanks much!

 

[Brentt]

Hi there,
Im new to the forum, so if this has already been mentioned please forgive me.

The new storage system may have applications in current and future data centers.
A large data center can use 30 mega watts or more of electricity and it must be backed
up 24x7 by batteries and diesel generators. supplying batteries for future data centers
worldwide could keep Tesla busy for some time.

Regards,

Brentt

 

[atang]

Hi there,
Im new to the forum, so if this has already been mentioned please forgive me.

The new storage system may have applications in current and future data centers.
A large data center can use 30 mega watts or more of electricity and it must be backed
up 24x7 by batteries and diesel generators. supplying batteries for future data centers
worldwide could keep Tesla busy for some time.

Regards,

Brentt

Welcome to the forum Brentt!

indeed, data centers will be good candidates for Stationary Storage. If you go back up thread, a page or two you will find some outstanding videos posted by others!

 

[mspohr]

Good article in The Guardian about Musk and batteries:
Power to the people: bring on the superbattery | Comment is free | The Guardian

Bottom line: It's the batteries, stupid!

" If we had to choose between the internet or access to electrical power, which one would we go for? No contest.What we have come to accept as civilised life depends utterly on secure supplies of electricity. We would miss the net, of course, and large chunks of our technical infrastructure depend on its continuance, but we could get by without it. Take away electricity, however, and our modern machine, including the net, stops."

"One such visionary is Elon Musk, a South African-born entrepreneur who made a colossal pile from PayPal and has been doing interesting things in non-IT fields ever since. The world knows him most for his creation of Tesla, the company that makes high-end electric cars, and SpaceX, an outfit that specialises in what really is rocket science. But probably the most interesting thing about Musk is that he has focused on solving the problem that keeps us in a world that depends utterly on electricity but lacks a way of storing it efficiently and cost-effectively: the problem of battery technology."

 

[ScepticMatt]

I thought it was a surprisingly poor article from the guardian.

the net would never be as important as electricity. This fact appears to have escaped the notice of some folks in the computing business

For some time, Musk has been building a huge factory to make such batteries

It starts with 4 paragraphs of fluff about the importance of electricity and then talks about Musk as it he himself is building the Gigafactory.

Last week, for example, researchers at Stanford reported that they had developed a rechargeable aluminium-based battery that can safely charge a smartphone in one minute, which is good news to this columnist, whose phone ran out of juice the other day when he was using it to navigate the wilds of Scotland.

Doesn't matter if he could charge his phone battery fast if doesn't last nearly long enough (with a poor 40 Wh/kg energy density)

If Musk can do this kind of thing on a larger scale, then things really will be looking up.

Musk and Tesla/Panasonic use "traditional" lithium-ion batteries, not some miracle "superbattery".

 

[Newb]

Hi there,
Im new to the forum, so if this has already been mentioned please forgive me.

The new storage system may have applications in current and future data centers.
A large data center can use 30 mega watts or more of electricity and it must be backed
up 24x7 by batteries and diesel generators. supplying batteries for future data centers
worldwide could keep Tesla busy for some time.

Regards,

Brentt

Thanks Brentt! And welcome to the forum!

The more I think about it from a shareholder's perspective, this is a massive revenue and profit opportunity, even on the short-term horizon. If Tesla is really going to roll-out stationary storage batteries this summer, there's two quarters in this calendar year left to provide for further income streams which do not depend on car production capabilities at Fremont - an easy extra income so to say.

Here's some math that analysts will probably do themselves after April 30th, but I find it worthwile having the numbers in the right ballparks ready for the announcement.

		equivalent to xxxx Model S packs (rough average 80kwh)	1250	2500	5000
	1kwh	10kwh pack (incl. inverter, power management, software)	10,000 packs	20,000 packs	40,000 packs
est. cost	200 USD	4,000 USD	40,000,000 USD	80,000,000 USD	160,000,000 USD
est. net price/revenue	800 USD	8,000 USD	80,000,000 USD	160,000,000 USD	320,000,000 USD
est. gross profit	400 USD	4,000 USD	40,000,000 USD	80,000,000 USD	160,000,000 USD

For SolarCity it's a no-brainer to couple such an inexpensive storage with the solar panels they install. Solarcity alone adds about 25,000 new customers every quarter. Even if only half of the new customers would get the battery storage pack and none of the existing ~225,000 customers (which is unrealistic), that would require 12,500 packs per quarter. I have no idea what the demand for Tesla home batteries in the U.S. would be beyond SolarCity's customers but if they go global with this battery right from the start, this is a disruptive train, folks. And it's not a hinderance to Tesla's car business. 40,000 10kwh packs equal only 5,000 packs for Model S (given the average pack is about 80kwh). Plus, we don't know yet what the stationary storage packs will consist of (recycled/refurbished cells from older car battery packs for instance). That could drive down costs and increase gross profit even further.

So, if someone could help here with better numbers, please go ahead.

 

[eloder]

Some cell phone towers and cell switching sites both use tremendous amounts of power and house tremendous amounts of batteries in many cases, along with a diesel geneator backup and a backup of the backup.

In general, commercial applications will be absolutely huge--much more than the residential market. If some contracts are announced with a big player, you can be sure to see it hit investors hard and fast who may not realize the scope of this project.

I wonder if Apple's talks a while back might have been about batteries. Apple is huge about renewable. Renewable needs batteries to work at 100%.

 

[jhm]

You're welcome.

I've come across some very interesting post from jhm in a different thread which I'll cross-post here, so that we can discuss the implications:



Just to make sure we understand the implications if those numbers are in the right ballpark. The Bosch Power Tec energy storage system with 11kwh costs 20,000 € (~21,000$) here in Germany (Source: maxx solarshop - Bosch Power Tec - Speichersysteme) . The Samsung SDI ESS 3.6 kwh all-in-one storage costs 7,300 € (~7,700$) (Source: maxx solarshop - Samsung SDI - Solarspeicher). Those packs include inverters and electronics, though.

A selling price of 5,500 $ for a 10 kwh Tesla battery (+ 1,000 $ inverter/etc.) would radically impact on current residential energy storage market. Even if Tesla sold the whole storage system for 10,000$, this would be roughly half the price of the Bosch Power Tec or Samsuns SDI ESS system. .... it'd be a no-brainer to get that Tesla storage system to couple that with your PV on the rooftop - especially here in Germany. Most homeowners with a PV shy away from energy storage because it's so expensive.

P.S.: In order to be able to measure potential impact on prices, here's one more example of residential solar energy storage in Germany:

RWE Storage Eco 13,5
-13,5kwh, 10,5 kwh usable
-260kg / 570lbs weight
-price tag April 11th 2015: 16,999 € ($18,000)
-it seems that this storage comes without the inverter
-only 2 year full product guarantee
Sources: RWE Storage eco - der kostengünstige Einstieg in die Solarstromspeicherung mit Lithium-Ionen-Technik. & RWE Energiekaufhaus - Preise Storage Compact

...just to have those numbers ready for April 30th.

Wow, I need to move into another neighborhood! I'm shocked that stationary is going for so much. It hardly seems worth it. In any case, my $5500 figure was based on trying to match the gross profit potential with that in auto so that stationary is profitable enough to compete with automotive applications of scarce productive capacity. So I thought it was ridiculously high. My expectation of the Gigafactory is that it should push the cost down to $140/kWh and for a 30% GM the price could be as low as $200/kWh.

 

[jhm]

Regarding SolarCity, the investor presentation this year is very worth reading. SCTY - NASDAQ
From this report I gather that as of Q1 2015 they sg
should have about 220,000 customers, but the more important thing is this customer base and the GW they represent are doubling every year. This amounts to growing 19% per month. So even it a small fraction of SC customers want storage, this demand is doubling every year. Now SC is growing faster than the solar industry as a whole, but there is a huge of solar installations that could could all benefit from storage. So for the right price I think the storage market can double for quite a number of years. Moreover, storage makes solar more attractive, so at large enough scale storage could accelerate the expansion of storage. So it is not so much the size of the market today that matters, but the potential for this market to double for many years to come that makes it so attractive.

Musk has suggested that Tesla's automotive business can grow by 50% per year for at least the next 10 years, but it looks like the stationary market can grow much faster than that. Moreover, demand looks much more straightforward for stationary than for autos. Once Tesla gets the price low enough businesses and consumers will buy it because the product saves them money. So while there may be some pretty pricey storage out there, I don't think that is where the real opportunity is. The opportunity is to drive down the cost of energy. Consider $200/kWh on well managed pack where you can expect 2000 cycles. That's roughly a levelized cost of $0.10 per kWh stored, ignoring the original cost of power and any efficiency losses. So if you've got solar at a level iced cost of $0.05/kWh, you store half of it and lose about 20% of what you store, that works out to about $0.11/kWh. In some utility districts, that's a good deal. But at say $1000/kWh for storage, you get a levelized sto rage cost of $0.50/kWh stored, and now it just does not pencil out for most rooftop solar owner with reasonable utility rates. So with storage close to $200/kWh, we could see a really dynamic market emerge, a market that can double each year. But at $1000/kWh? Meh.

 

[EV2BFREE]

I've been reading up a bit on Ideal Power. Are these the systems Tesla could potentially use to tie the car+storage pack+solar together?