If you look over the california S.G.I.P. program data, systems from most of the A.E.S. guys including Tesla have system costs (I believe that is turnkey price) well over $1000/KW in most cases. Recent new projects by Tesla indicate 50 KW systems at $100,000 but it's hard to know what they look like in project cost form. If that really is the final price, then it is getting far cheaper. Going back a year or two, full project costs on a per-KW price scale were up in the $2000-3500 range. A month ago, those 50 KW systems were logged in the spreadsheet as 100 KW systems for $100,000 and they looked "really" spectacular in terms of pricing. I have to imagine that 50KW systems are one powerpack plus inverter and electrician work. Given the "talked about" pricing of $25K per powerpack to the installers, someone is doing well in terms of system value. And, the S.G.I.P. program is rebating $60,000 for that system alone. I want one!
Everyone would want one in their home if they could have it paid for like that.
Click here:
Self-Generation Incentive Program
Use the Weekly Projects Report and do some Data review (excel spreadsheet Data Filter, etc.)
You want to compute "Total Eligible / Rated Capacity" - and if you want per kWh, divide again by 2 (most likely).
You'd think cost of scale for bigger projects like SCE-SGIP-2012-2409 would be adjusted since it was entered in 2012 and now with the low-cost batteries, they could do the system for half price (assuming). But system at 1600KW and the $3.1 M of incentive money already reserved is hard to look away from for the buyer. Even recent systems like SCE-SGIP-2015-1018 are coming up as $3240/KW pricing which again presumes that the balance of system overall project cost really drives the price up. But what I hope does not happen is if Tesla quotes a new system today at $500/kWh ($1000/KW) and these older systems are being given reserve funding at $3000/KW or higher - what will the program do with such data? I see that it really does not matter as the incentive is in fact given based on the nameplate KW power rating and the ability to draw power for 2-hours minimum. But what may be happening is that the project that logged an entry for an expected cost at $3000/KW and the final turnkey system ends up being $1500/KW - then the real benefactor is the buyer. It is possible that the SGIP rebate money could even pay off the entire system price given the battery price drop over the last 3-4 years.
With all that data - it looks like the trickle down effect of the Panasonic battery pricing offered to Tesla allowed for a great progress in the battery storage industry and a leap-ahead into very affordable storage packs. So much so that the incentive reserved can possibly pay for a system installation with no money spent from anyone other than California's S.G.I.P. program. A few short years ago, per-kWh pricing on batteries was what, maybe $500 and now reaching $200. That is for the raw batteries. If it hits $100 by 2020, then programs like this one are paying for the system and the buyer actually isn't paying for much at all. I guess that's good if everyone benefits. Competitors like Coda probably uses a Chinese cell and their 20 KW system shows a system overall price of $72K, so that is $3600/KW. Newer items in the spreadsheet show 78 KW with $234K price or $3115/KW. They are going to have to work harder to source lower-priced batteries to keep up with Tesla. The only one even close is Green Charge Networks and they are just under $3000/KW for 150KW systems.
Look at SCE-SGIP-2015-1172 - 150KW (3 powerpacks) - rebate of $180,000 ($1750/KW or $1.75/W due to the 1.20 multiplier since Tesla is in Calif) available on a proposed $300,000 system price allowance. Is the powerpack really $25K? So, this one would be $75K of powerpacks, let's say $30K for inverters and $15K for permits and various electrical engineering work. Round it to $120K, add $10-20K sales and marketing and you have $180K incentive paying for a possible $130-150K turnkey system (wholesale). I like the numbers. Now, what is the price exposed to the buyer? That's hard to know. The margin here is perhaps the grey area that is held close. What I wouldn't know - maybe someone here like jhm knows - is the pricing of 50 KW inverters (charge and discharge). They do have to have the "Grid Sell" features like the small units that Solar City used for home installs of the 10 kWh systems, the Schneider Electric XW, if I remember correctly. And larger systems need some sort of telemetrics tied to the power company so it can regulate charge and discharge cycles.
I don't think we're at $500/kWh just yet. But even $1000/kWh is quite good. I doubt a delivered commercial system will reach below $1000/KW in the next two years, mainly due to the rich incentives in some states like CA and NY. $700-800/kWh for a single powerwall system seems about right for now. In CA - the "break even" is not even an issue. It looks like the systems pay for themselves (if priced in the buyers' favor) in just a couple years given the incentive returned. If I were a buyer, I would seriously NOT lease such a system but rather work out the price, installed, turnkey and pay for the system myself as long as the rebate check was coming my way.
it is just too bad that V2G is not allowed with MS or most EVs today. Especially for rare blackout power scenarios, a couple times a year.