Great question - I have friends in Lahore who are very much interested in this. I think India and other third world countries will benefit from these very much as well.
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CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
I work in international development related projects and have assisted microgrid entrepreneurs and prepaid electricity setups in Asia and Africa. A 10kWh battery can power a village. You would still be competing against clunkier battery tech (space is not a problem) but systems that are modularly repairable, (smaller parts that can be swapped in and out), and direct DC output (no need for going through AC to charge phones and power led lamps) and cheaper. But it's a dynamic marketplace; and Elon has acquaintances that are working in it.
Software control would be in the separately purchased inverter.
Presumably the installer would provide the integration and setup.
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Right: the Internet connectivity of the battery is so that remote management software ISO/utility/whoever can get information about the battery to determine what to do.
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Maybe Pakistan.
One thing I really liked about this event though. One probably would not be surprised that I talk about Tesla a lot yet I do not own one. So I have been telling a few of my coworkers I can now afford a Tesla...
...battery
(rimshot)
...battery
(rimshot)
Question: Is Powerwall/Powerpack eligible to any federal and/or state incentives? particularly for commercial and industrial use?
I came across the following website, but found myself clueless.
Database of State Incentives for Renewables - DSIRE
I came across the following website, but found myself clueless.
Database of State Incentives for Renewables - DSIRE
Man... are you kidding. I could always afford a Tesla
....Jacket.... and now... a battery.
In all seriousness, I liked the event and I thought Elon did really well given his usual presentations. This was significantly smoother and the message and severity of carbon emissions was really driven home with that chart that went parabolic. I mean seriously people need to understand that. The one thing I would have changed is when they had that White Home Battery Reveal, I would done a slide out of a bunch of the batteries in different colors behind it (Apple Style) to make it look consumer friendly.
hockeythug
Active Member
NPR piece. JB talks a little about the potential for utility companies.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...sk-unveils-home-battery-is-3-000-cheap-enough
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...sk-unveils-home-battery-is-3-000-cheap-enough
Something that I don't think have been brought up with regard to the battery cost in the new products, that also perhaps tells us something on their product strategy:
1) Given prising, the upper boundary of pack cost (treating the whole power wall product as pack cost) is either 350 USD/kWh, or 429 USD/kWh, you can also hype on the cost difference, indicating 167 USD/kWh cell cost. This might seems low, but we know that Tesla probably by the cells for around or lower than 200 USD/kWh, so not impossible. The cells are not exactly the same as for MS, these could be cheaper than the automotive grade ones. But the 429 USD/kWh seem to be way to high pack cost, doesn't make sense, and makes it not possible to estimate cell cost based on difference. The 7kWh version is not reliable. Why?
2) Despite the argued difference in application (backup vs daily cycling), from a production point of view it makes no sense to have two types of cells. The rest of the product must be very similar or the same.
3) Also, the 3kWh difference is really so small that it might not make sense to design two manufacturing processes, it is quite common to have the same hardware in electronics, but reduce capacity on some versions to have a range of products and be able to charge more for the high end version.
4) We know that harder cycling lead to more rapid decline in capacity.
How to resolve all this? My take is that the products are actually the same, just two different deals to diversify the product line. Both contain 10 kWh, but the 7kWh version is constrained to 7kWh to give margin for more rapid degradation, but still have a 10 year warranty. The spare capacity could be gradualy brought online during the 10 year guarantee period.
With regard to the battery cost:
Hence, the 167 USD/kWh estimate can be disregarded, the 429USD/kWh can be disregarded, and the estimate based on 10kWh for 350 USD is the more accurate one at pack/product level. Also makes it possible to a better pack and cell cost estimate: Assume 25% margin, and you have 260 USD/kWh at pack level, very reasonable, and then assume pack integration and electronics adding 50% above cells (quite high overhead for small amount of kWh) and you arrive at about 175 USD/kWh at cell level, which is also very reasonable.
And finally, add a lower pack integration overhead and slimmer margins for utility and you could well have the above quoted 250 USD/kWh for the utility deal.
1) Given prising, the upper boundary of pack cost (treating the whole power wall product as pack cost) is either 350 USD/kWh, or 429 USD/kWh, you can also hype on the cost difference, indicating 167 USD/kWh cell cost. This might seems low, but we know that Tesla probably by the cells for around or lower than 200 USD/kWh, so not impossible. The cells are not exactly the same as for MS, these could be cheaper than the automotive grade ones. But the 429 USD/kWh seem to be way to high pack cost, doesn't make sense, and makes it not possible to estimate cell cost based on difference. The 7kWh version is not reliable. Why?
2) Despite the argued difference in application (backup vs daily cycling), from a production point of view it makes no sense to have two types of cells. The rest of the product must be very similar or the same.
3) Also, the 3kWh difference is really so small that it might not make sense to design two manufacturing processes, it is quite common to have the same hardware in electronics, but reduce capacity on some versions to have a range of products and be able to charge more for the high end version.
4) We know that harder cycling lead to more rapid decline in capacity.
How to resolve all this? My take is that the products are actually the same, just two different deals to diversify the product line. Both contain 10 kWh, but the 7kWh version is constrained to 7kWh to give margin for more rapid degradation, but still have a 10 year warranty. The spare capacity could be gradualy brought online during the 10 year guarantee period.
With regard to the battery cost:
Hence, the 167 USD/kWh estimate can be disregarded, the 429USD/kWh can be disregarded, and the estimate based on 10kWh for 350 USD is the more accurate one at pack/product level. Also makes it possible to a better pack and cell cost estimate: Assume 25% margin, and you have 260 USD/kWh at pack level, very reasonable, and then assume pack integration and electronics adding 50% above cells (quite high overhead for small amount of kWh) and you arrive at about 175 USD/kWh at cell level, which is also very reasonable.
And finally, add a lower pack integration overhead and slimmer margins for utility and you could well have the above quoted 250 USD/kWh for the utility deal.
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
Except in this case Tesla is charging less for the high end version.
Make no mistake, the 7kWh battery is the more capable battery by a lot, with a potential ROI likely far higher than the 10kWh version (I haven't done the math, but we are talking ~2,500 cycles, vs ~500 cycles over a 10 year period. No way that a mere 43% increase in size is able to match the generating capacity of a battery capable of being used 5 times as much).
Didn't you just say that they are the same packs? Why are you basing your analysis on the higher price? You should be doing your calculations based on $300/kWh using this logic since the 7kWh system is actually nominally 10kWh in your scheme and is just $3,000.
Honestly, the mental gyrations needed to justify Tesla using the same number of cells in the two packs is just unsustainable. The per cell cost is easily the primary cost driver for these systems, and 10kWh system requires a ~43% increase in cell count over a 7kWh system.
That's like $600 in extra costs (assuming Panasonic is delivering these cells at ~$200/kWh) being buried in a product that Tesla is offering at a $500 discount. Where are the manufacturing efficiencies to be gained that can offset costs at that scale? The only time Tesla did something similar was when they canceled the 40kWh version of the Model S and offered the 60kWh battery with a 40kWh software limit. And that was a one time thing done for a known number of cars that would also have required extensive engineering to produce aside from the reduced cell count.
In contrast to that exception, the 85kWh battery coincidentally uses ~42% more cells than the 60kWh battery, so by this logic it also would make sense to have just manufactured the 85kWh battery exclusively.
Fundamentally these products offer ~500 cycles for the 10kWh system and ~2,500 cycles for the 7kWh system. While you can achieve that performance by increasing cell count and reducing depth of nominal discharge, the costs required don't make any sense. And if you do want to do that, why not just have a single product with a switch that changes modes and just charge $3,500? Why use smoke and mirrors just to reduce your revenue?
It makes more sense that there is are physical differences in the power electronics and cooling at a minimum. And the idea that the additional costs associated with manufacturing packs using cells with two different chemistries will somehow be more expensive than increasing your cell count by 43% just isn't something I can see as likely.
http://indefinitelywild.gizmodo.com/how-the-tesla-battery-will-benefit-marijuana-growers-1701582831
Interesting story about medical (and less legal forms) of marijuana growers can stand to benefit given real-world numbers and energy use with simply using peak shaving on energy, no panels.
Six month RoI.
I don't run a business, but six months sounds like an incredibly good business decision. I can't imagine that other businesses would be that much different in being able to save from peak loading alone on tiered plans.
Interesting story about medical (and less legal forms) of marijuana growers can stand to benefit given real-world numbers and energy use with simply using peak shaving on energy, no panels.
Six month RoI.
I don't run a business, but six months sounds like an incredibly good business decision. I can't imagine that other businesses would be that much different in being able to save from peak loading alone on tiered plans.
On the short-term thread someone said that most analysts and media outlets are just puzzled what to make out of the Tesla Powerwall unveiling. Well, they will understand soon enough, once the order books are shown.
I'm really shocked how inexpensive stationary storage has just become, especially for residential rooftop solar. Just to make you understand, here's a table I made for comparable home battery packs which you can buy today in Germany in connection to PV solar system on your rooftop (I've translated euro prices in $ for comparison's sake) :
Anyone caring to do this for U.S. retail prices?
I'm just stunned. Even if Tesla increased European prices vis-a-vis U.S. prices by 20%, it's still less than 1/2 price compared to the competition.
And here's the kicker: You can get a subsidy of up to 3,000 Euro from the government for pairing your PV rooftop system with a home battery.
I'm really shocked how inexpensive stationary storage has just become, especially for residential rooftop solar. Just to make you understand, here's a table I made for comparable home battery packs which you can buy today in Germany in connection to PV solar system on your rooftop (I've translated euro prices in $ for comparison's sake) :
| Tesla Powerwall 7kwh daily cycle | Bosch Powertec . BPT-S 5 Hybrid 6.6 / Saft Batteries | RWE Storage Eco 9.0 | Samsung SDI ESS All-in-one | IBC Solar SolStore 5.0 Li / LG Chem | |
| price of the pack excluding inverter | $3,000 | $11,330* | $9,030* | $4,300* | $5,430* |
| est. price for inverter | $2,300 | incl. in the pack | incl. in the pack | incl. in the pack | incl. in the pack |
| total price for pack+inverter | $5,300* | $13,630** | $11,330** | $6,600** | $7,730** |
| kwh (usable) | 7 | 6.6 | 7 | 3.6 | 4,8 |
| price per kwh (pack level excl. inv) | $429 | $1,717 | $1,289 | $1,222 | $1,131 |
| Weight (battery pack excl. inv) | 220lbs | 400lbs* | 310lbs* | 100lbs* | 270lbs* |
| Weight in lbs per kwh | 31.4 | 60.6 | 44.3 | 27.8 | 56,2 |
| Guarantee | 10 years full guarantee | 5-year full guarantee | 2-year full guarantee & 10-year "time value" / "current value" guarantee | 2-year full guarantee & 7-year "performance guarantee" | 2-year full guarantee & 7-year "time value" / "current value" guarantee |
| *my own estimates based on the assumed $2,300 & 130lbs inverter **actual retail price | Source for pricing: click | Source for pricing: click | Source for pricing: click | Source for pricing: click |
I'm just stunned. Even if Tesla increased European prices vis-a-vis U.S. prices by 20%, it's still less than 1/2 price compared to the competition.
And here's the kicker: You can get a subsidy of up to 3,000 Euro from the government for pairing your PV rooftop system with a home battery.
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Gerasimental
Member
Thanks for compiling this info!
What are the others even doing? Over $1500/kWh, really?! What on earth else do they put into those products to make them so expensive?
Would be good to see how many of their products the others have sold. While I don't think this will be a hugely profitable product for Tesla, it could be a fantastic way to spread word of mouth about the company. I have high hopes that this will generate massive interest in Germany which will also lead to more awareness of TM and generate demand for Model S3X.
With regard to the €3000 subsidy. Is this an EU or a German subsidy? I'm guessing this is separate from the long-standing solar subsidies that were scrapped a while ago?
In fact, I'm not sure why I said that about the profitability. I guess I just see commercial/utility scale as the big cash cow here, with this more as an image/marketing thing (and of course part of Elon's big vision). But then, even at a pack-level cost of 300$/kWh, the Powerwall's pricing allows for substantial margins.
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ZachShahan
Active Member
Great job, Newb! Yes, I think it's pretty well known that Samsung SDI was the leader in lithium-ion batteries for stationary storage. But I hadn't searched out the prices.
Note that all-in prices are now out from SolarCity. "The pricing options consist of a nine-year lease plan at $5000, or the customers can buy the battery pack for $7,140 flat."http://www.businessfinancenews.com/22305-solarcity-corp-offers-tesla-motors-inc-powerwall-battery-for-5000/
$5,000 matches what Tesla reportedly told the press during the Q&A. But I assumed that was to buy it. $7,140 is not so hot (obviously), but it's still the best on the market by a good margin ($1,020/kWh).
Also note that Tesla's reported utility-scale price is $250/kWh, which is quite competitive for such an application: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/594186544174366720
As Elon says, that's where the big market is. That's what will really drive revenue to Tesla Energy. Exciting times.
That said, don't assume that Tesla is the only one bringing a competitive new product to the utility-scale storage market. Eos Energy is reportedly at $160/kWh for a liftime of 30 years (Tesla = 10? 15?) and a roundtrip efficiency of 75% (Tesla = 92%): Eos Energy Storage Secures $15 Million Via Private Placement With AltEnergy | CleanTechnica
It is winning pilot project contracts and has received a good bit of private investment: Eos energy storage Archives | CleanTechnica
And there are others that have not been so forthcoming with their prices but are potentially disruptive: Ambri, Amprius, Alevo, Aquion, ViZn... 42 Battery Storage Companies To Watch | CleanTechnica
That said, utilities and power plant developers are going to be cautious. Lithium-ion is quite well proven in the field (not just the lab), and the buyers will probably use a variety of energy storage providers for awhile in order to hedge their bets and learn more about the offerings.
And all of this ignores branding (quite big) and connections (Tesla has them).
All in all, I expect to see Tesla get a huge portion of the residential and commercial markets, and a good portion of a very large utility-scale storage market (which is nascent at the moment). Fun times for Tesla fans & shareholders!
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cheers.
I think it all comes down to Tesla's superiority in cost/kwh on every level (cell/pack). They're market and technology leader in automotive battery packs, now TM is just transferring this to home, business and utility scale batteries.
It's a fairly new incentive: https://www.kfw.de/Download-Center/...)/PDF-Dokumente/6000002700_M_275_Speicher.pdf
And here's a nice calculator for the total maximum subsidy:
Speicherförderung
By the way, I need to adjust the table above since prices for high-quality inverters (e.g. SMA Solar) are actually higher than the assumed $1,100, rather around twice the price. Here are the numbers which will be closer to reality (again, prices in $ but for German retail customers):
| Tesla Powerwall 7kwh daily cycle | Bosch Powertec . BPT-S 5 Hybrid 6.6 | RWE Storage Eco 9.0 | Samsung SDI ESS All-in-one | IBC Solar SolStore 5.0 Li / LG Chem | |
| price of the pack excluding inverter | $3,000 | $11,330* | $9,030* | $4,300* | $5,430* |
| est. price for inverter | $2,300 | incl. in the pack | incl. in the pack | incl. in the pack | incl. in the pack |
| total price for pack+inverter | $5,300* | $13,630** | $11,330** | $6,600** | $7,730** |
| kwh (usable) | 7 | 6.6 | 7 | 3.6 | 4,8 |
| price per kwh (pack level excl. inv) | $429 | $1,717 | $1,289 | $1,222 | $1,131 |
| Weight (pack excl. inv) | 220lbs | 400lbs* | 310lbs* | 100lbs* | 270lbs* |
| Weight in lbs per kwh | 31.4 | 60.6 | 44.3 | 27.8 | 56,2 |
| Guarantee | 10 years full guarantee | 5 years full guarantee | 2-year full product guarantee & 10-year "time value" / "current value" guarantee | 2-year full product guarantee & 7-year "performance guarantee" | 2-year full product guarantee & 7-year "time value" / "current value" guarantee |
| *my own estimates based on the assumed $2,300 & 130lbs inverter **actual retail price | Source for pricing: click | Source for pricing: click | Source for pricing: click | Source for pricing: click |
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Thanks for the link to the SolarCity prices for the 10kwh pack. It's quite different to the 7kwh, though.
The current integrated battery systems (including inverter) in Germany are priced around $1,500-2,000/kwh. Tesla Powerwall 7kwh + SMA solar inverter are at $780/kwh which is about 1/2, as I already mentioned above. This is a disruptive change in this market.
Tesla is in no need to advertise this or to educate anyone about this, since their order books will fill up very quickly - every rational homeowner in Germany or elsewhere simply must do their math given those numbers. Want to save money on energy? Start with a simple excel spreadsheet.
EDIT: Just added an LG Chem home battery pack aval. in Germany.
EDIT 2: Added product guarantee statements.
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Thanks Newb for the great chart. I was wanting to do the same thing with some of the Generators on the market. In Texas I was seeing a whole lot of Generac (?) generators that were installed to come on in the even of power failure and they look very expensive. They are about the size of Very small car (think Chevy Spark) It was not quite as tall but about the right width and length. A lot of bears are saying no one is going to pay this for a generator but even a nice portable generator can approach the price that installers get the Tesla Powerwall for.
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