Tesla stock - how low will it go?

[Kenners]

People lose the ability to rationalise value in a bubble. If it fell another 75% it would be worth the same as VW. Its still worth $100bn more than Toyota. Everyone is catching up with the EV tech, model range is too narrow, FSD is complete garbage and half of the other stuff they have promised is still years away. The no dealership model also makes it far more exposed to the economic cycle as it has no buffer between it and the consumer. China exposure a worry. CEO has lost it. The skills to start a company are very different to those you need to run one once it has reached scale. Its just a car company and should be valued as such. Although I did like the Xmas update a lot.

If they had not done the share split people would not think its cheap here.

 

[CWT3LR]

The skills to buy into a company are very different to those you need to run one

Corrected a small error. Muskie has only ever made money by buying in, not from his own efforts...

 

[phil4]

Corrected a small error. Muskie has only ever made money by buying in, not from his own efforts...

While I sort of agree with what you mean, especially the past decade... Zip2 and X.com he was in at the ground floor. So he defo did "something". But agree those days are a long way past.

 

[ACarneiro]

The only thing guaranteed to make a stock drop further is me investing.

I know that feeling distressingly well…

 

[Mullermn]

Corrected a small error. Muskie has only ever made money by buying in, not from his own efforts...

He bought in 7 months after the company was founded a whisker under 20 years ago and has been CEO for 15 years. But sure, all the hard work was done before he arrived.

 

[-DB-]

Its just a car company and should be valued as such.

But it isn’t just a car company. What other car companies are also doing large commercial and residential energy products? Not to mention robotics and AI?

The energy element is only getting started. Plenty to come from that in the next few years.

 

[Rooster6655]

300b down in a month is most definitely not down to fundamentals of the company, little has changed apart from maybe demand sales variation over a quarter.

The obvious is the CEO buying Twitter and tweeting daily on many subjects that many will find controversial, giving many a reason to change their sentiment towards the business.

Ev sales will increase but as the stock price isn’t always related to the fundamentals nobody knows!

 

[Danny_F]

I dont think now is the time to buy, there are a few storms on the horizon that could adversely impact the current economic performance of Tesla.

1. Tesla's highest producing factory is in China. China is also ground zero yet again for Covid. This will impact on their ability to produce in the numbers they want to and will also impact on every stage of production too. There may also be travel bans imposed on the Chinese which in turn could further impact on their efficiency.

2. China is currently persona no gratis to quite a large number of western countries. This list of countries is only going to grow when China decides it doesn't care what other countries think and tries to take Taiwan by force. Chinese companies will have restrictions and sanctions imposed with the ability of Tesla to build and export the cars limited or even stopped altogether.

3. Musk is stuck between China, who he is trying not to criticise, and the USA, who he really has to keep on side. I can see Musk abandoning anything to do with China if things get too bad and taking the loss, which will have to be recovered somehow.

4. Taiwan is the biggest producer of high quality chips, which the world relies upon, including car manufacturers. This will be problematic should China want to take that little island as their own and the largest supply of chips is suddenly reduced or halted.

5. The United States Congress has just banned all of its members from downloading TikTok due to its links to China. I think this will be the opening salvo in more restrictions on all things Chinese due to the law in China that any Chinese company has to share all and any of its intellectual property with the government. Lets not forget what has happened with Huawei and Newport wafer fab.

There is a lot of turmoil still to happen in the world in the coming 1-5 years, what with the war in Ukraine and China sabre rattling the world is a scary place at the moment.

 

[MD70]

Depends on your time scale, if it is at least 10 years I think it’s possible for Tesla to be the largest company in the world or close to it. The reason is that the company is still way ahead in all aspects of EVs and battery tech and the potential market is huge.

Along the way I expect large swings in the share price. Many factors will affect it including what the federal reserve does, how the Chinese government behaves.

However the main reason why I think we have such huge swings is due to the volume of options which are sold. The market makers and others make billions from playing both sides.

As for the leader whilst because of him spacex and Tesla are leading the way, he is wrong when it comes to his understanding of covid and he has gone to one extreme when it comes to politics. This does have an impact but doesn’t change the fact that mainly because of him we are on the cusp of electrification of transport.

If I was starting off now I would buy in increments, say every month if the share price is below a certain amount, then let it ride.
Then in the future if I can invest, I would do so after significant falls in the price.

 

[mjwojtukiewicz]

I think this is the most important part of this thread.

FSD - and wider autonomous tech like the Tesla Bot - was keeping the company's growth prospects in the stratosphere. Instead of normal measures of long term profitability, Tesla was judged by the measures of a late 90s tech start-up - it might go bust, but also it might make you 10 or even 100 times your investment. Now that FSD has reached its limits for the foreseeable future and with no prospect of FSD being widened to level 3 let along level 5 autonomy, the market has come to realise it is just another boring company that makes cars. And overpriced ones at that.

The semi is a niche product, likewise the Cybertruck, with limited growth potential. No sign of an affordable car to allow Tesla to be a volume manufacturer. And with Musk's unhinged right-wing drivel, his running into the ground a genuine tech company, and no real design or marketing flair, there doesn't seem to be strength in depth for the company to claw its way out of the hole. Unless of course Musk gets margin-called into so many share sales that he is replaced as CEO.

You hit the nail right on the head. # trades on stock exchange was enormous. they say on the internets it's a feeding trough for bears betting against it

 

[yessuz]

until marcap will be reasonable.

it was probably 1000 times overvalued.

tesla makes ~1m cars a year. maybe 1.5.

it should be on the level of the similar manufacturer (unit wise) maybe x3 max because of reasons*

* because "development" in fsd which is not really working or available... or maybe something else magical which is not really.

 

[yessuz]

But it isn’t just a car company. What other car companies are also doing large commercial and residential energy products? Not to mention robotics and AI?

The energy element is only getting started. Plenty to come from that in the next few years.

but.. iit is... just a car company.

What is the market size or income from those large commercial and residential energy products?

tesla's power wall is grossly overvalued compared to other battery products. solar tiles just do not work.

it is just ridiculous how it is valued much more than VW. It is just insane.

 

[VT_EE]

People lose the ability to rationalise value in a bubble. If it fell another 75% it would be worth the same as VW. Its still worth $100bn more than Toyota. Everyone is catching up with the EV tech, model range is too narrow, FSD is complete garbage and half of the other stuff they have promised is still years away. The no dealership model also makes it far more exposed to the economic cycle as it has no buffer between it and the consumer. China exposure a worry. CEO has lost it. The skills to start a company are very different to those you need to run one once it has reached scale. Its just a car company and should be valued as such. Although I did like the Xmas update a lot.

If they had not done the share split people would not think its cheap here.

So far from the truth. “Just a car company”???? Please name another car company that is pioneering virtual power plants, solar roofs, utility and residential power storage,etc. What about future tech like the Tesla Droid, AI, etc? Also name another “car” company that designs EVs as well as Tesla. There isn’t one. Start looking under the skin of any other EV brand and it’s obvious Tesla is like no other and shouldn’t be valued as such. I love how some people obsess about a mm panel gap here or there on a Tesla, yet the packaging disaster under the skin of any other EV is never mentioned.

 

[VT_EE]

While I sort of agree with what you mean, especially the past decade... Zip2 and X.com he was in at the ground floor. So he defo did "something". But agree those days are a long way past.

Really? I take it you don’t follow SpaceX.

 

[yessuz]

So far from the truth. “Just a car company”???? Please name another car company that is pioneering virtual power plants, solar roofs, utility and residential power storage,etc. What about future tech like the Tesla Droid, AI, etc? Also name another “car” company that designs EVs as well as Tesla. There isn’t one. Start looking under the skin of any other EV brand and it’s obvious Tesla is like no other and shouldn’t be valued as such. I love how some people obsess about a mm panel gap here or there on a Tesla, yet the packaging disaster under the skin of any other EV is never mentioned.

omg.
Virtual power plants? you would be surprised.
Solar roofs? It wokrs? It makes huge sales numbers? You sure?
Power storage - plenty of competition here mate.
Tesla droid? lmao.
AI? - is tesla's AI at least anywhere close to let's say ChatGPT capabilities? car shits itself because of many reasons which no one knows why. please.

There are PLENTY of companies which design perfectly good EVs. Which are significantly cheaper. it is all about technology.

2022 saw a massive number of new EVs. and these keep on coming and there become less and less reasons to buy Tesla over other EV, especially when it opens charger network to others.

 

[yessuz]

LOL. Clueless.

nu, looks like you do not understand and are a bit too blind fanboi - but hey, it's ok.
you should not be ashamed that you haven't seen anything else than tesla. it's ok.

for a 50k+ car, the interior and noise insulation is sub par to what you would expect in the market. the fact that it does not allow android auto/apple car play is a huge thing on the negative side, imho. and not even talking about all drawbacks of AP or other features.
Tesla has superior charging netwrok - it is true. but it opens it to other EVs (and will keep doing it in the future. And more over - how often do you actually use it?! The only good thing is the car efficiency. but others are catching it up.

tesla has few years head start... but gap is smaller and smaller.

virtual power plants? you have no clue how this thing works in reality mate.

 

[yessuz]

Fanboy? Always love it when people resort to name calling. Your lame comment demonstrates a complete inability to see innovation or its value. Go buy some VW or Ford and enjoy.

Funny that you mentioned VW - one of the worlds largest manufacturer, delivering loads of EVs (~1/3 Tesla did), but doing it only couple of years, selling close to 10 times more cars in general than Tesla but is valued 6 times less that tesla. Obviously, tesla has some innovations there and there, but it also has loads of unfulfilled promises. with market cap going down, looks like it starts to make sense..
Or even funnier that you mentioned Ford. 2015 reg Mondeo (or in MURICA known as FUSION) it had 100% accurately working auto high beam, perfectly fin working auto wipers, BETTER interior quality (not a single squeak or rattle in 4 years) and it cost HALF price of tesla. Really funny.

 

[VT_EE]

Funny that you mentioned VW - one of the worlds largest manufacturer, delivering loads of EVs (~1/3 Tesla did), but doing it only couple of years, selling close to 10 times more cars in general than Tesla but is valued 6 times less that tesla. Obviously, tesla has some innovations there and there, but it also has loads of unfulfilled promises. with market cap going down, looks like it starts to make sense..
Or even funnier that you mentioned Ford. 2015 reg Mondeo (or in MURICA known as FUSION) it had 100% accurately working auto high beam, perfectly fin working auto wipers, BETTER interior quality (not a single squeak or rattle in 4 years) and it cost HALF price of tesla. Really funny.

Just like those companies you mentioned, Tesla is certainly not perfect. There are quite a few things that could be done better such as the auto high beam, wipers, etc. FSD is currently a joke, although they’ll figure it out someday like everyone else. None of this changes the fact that the overall package Tesla can produce for the cost they can produce it at is superior to any other brand. Watch some Munro Live EV tear downs if you are interested in what is under the skin of many of the EVs out there.

I anticipate their energy revenue will eclipse their auto revenue at some point in the next decade. Both the world’s auto and energy businesses are at the beginning of a fundamental technology shift and no other company is positioned to take advantage of it or can attract the talent to make it happen. This is true regardless of their socially-challenged CEO. It has been said before and I’ll repeat it: Tesla is a technology company that happens to make cars. All the other auto manufacturers just build cars.

 

[Buzzliteyear]

I’m not sure it is. It could, as Tesla is a profitable company. However, they’re now under increasing pressure from competition and have little to answer them.

The Model 3 and Y are priced much higher than anticipated and not selling well any more; the Model S hasn’t changed shape since it launched in 2012, they have nothing to compete in the “Model 2” price bracket while others do, FSD has hit a brick wall in the last six months, Supercharger prices are 400% higher than 2021 despite wholesale energy prices falling, they have removed parking sensors from a £55,000 car, and the last photo I saw of a Tesla Semi showed it on fire.

So feel free to take a gamble but I think it’s unwise.

Competition
The competition keep on making positive noises, but still can't organize themselves and make their Electric cars on mass.

 

[yessuz]

Competition
The competition keep on making positive noises, but still can't organize themselves and make their Electric cars on mass.

Eh? WV alone made ~500k EVs this year alone. And they just started, really...