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Tesla: Stock Price vs. Car Price, Investor vs. Enthusiat, a $25,000 Tesla!

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by pfbz, Aug 6, 2013.

  1. pfbz

    pfbz Member

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    CO
    I put in a reservation for a Model X in April 2012. I was impressed enough with what I saw that I also put a multiple of the deposit amount into TSLA stock.

    Obviously I'm quite happy with the growth of TSLA (about 300%) and what that means for the company. It allows them to leverage their market cap for buildout of superchargers, improving production capability, international sales, but perhaps most of all, it accelerates the publics perception of the company, which triggers more sales, which triggers more revenue, which... well, you know what I mean.

    I'm a bit less thrilled with the significant Model X delay, so much so that now I'm reconsidering a Model S. While I've checked many times in the past 16 months on TSLA price, I hadn't really kept all that close tabs on the Model S itself...

    Things I noticed after checking in on a Tesla S purchase:


    • Availability is awesome... Tesla stores have low mileage demos for immediate purchase and order wait times are 1-3 months.

    Great for investor, Great for enthusiast!


    • Major price creep.... Wow, wasn't expecting to see $118,000 list price for a loaded model S! They have moved towards a BMW/Porsche/Audi price model with *very* expensive options, often adding 50% to the base price of the car is I think a great move. Instead of a really expensive 'green' car, they are now a Uber-luxury car that happens to be green.

    As an investor, I say brilliant! As an enthusiast, it really sucks!


    • Fit/finish/driving.... Even though I've been a Tesla reservation holder (X) and investor for 16 months, I took my first drive in a model S yesterday. P85+. Wow! I split my driving between a Porsche 911 and a F150 Ecoboost with a few tweaks to give it 430HP/500TQ, and I was seriously impressed with the fit, finish, ride quality, POWER, and HANDLING of the S!

    As investor, fantastic!! As enthusiast, even more so!

    • Guaranteed buyback.... The 50% of base, 42% of option 36 month guaranteed buyback is a great idea. Combined with the great market valuation, it really provides a great backstop against a worst case 'My $100,000 car is now virtually worthless" scenario. Combined with federal and state (Colorado) incentives, it is even more powerful as the guarantee is agains the pre-credit price, which makes it more like a 50% guaranteed value retention on a base model

    As investor, love it. As an enthusiast, I mostly love it, but the lack of true lease programs means paying much more in local sales tax (7.2% rate)

    My thinking on purchasing an S has really come down to a possible scenario...

    Buy a pretty basic 60kwh S for about $75K. Take the $14K state and federal credit. Realize about $6K in fuel savings over three years. Sell back at guaranteed rate after 36 months. That nets about $24,000 cost of ownership for three years, including our expensive sales tax, which is pretty awesome. The way things are structured, however, a loaded Tesla has a particularly high impact on cost of ownership. Going to a loaded $115K Tesla doubles 3 year cost of ownership, to over $50,000!

    You could pay for 3-yr complete costs on two $75K Tesla's (assuming a second 'owner' who also qualifies for the tax credit) for the same 3-yr cost on a P85+....

    So the $25,000 question: Will I love a base Tesla 'enough' to go through with my budget Tesla scenario??
     
  2. stevezzzz

    stevezzzz R;SigS;P85D;SigX

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    The step down from P85+ to 60 isn't as huge as you might think. The 60 is still an awesome automobile, just not as stupidly quick off the line. Of course, I'm talking through my hat because I've never even seen a P85+. But if the choice were to live with an ICEmobile or a 60, I'd take the 60 any day...
     
  3. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    You didn't see six's BC2BC car @ Teslive?
     
  4. stevezzzz

    stevezzzz R;SigS;P85D;SigX

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    Well, I did see it; but I didn't realize it was a P85+.
     
  5. Colasec

    Colasec Member

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    I did much of the same math. With my config, financing, sales tax, registration, electricity, NEMA 14-50 installation, Tesla annual service (didn't get the plan), tinting, Opti-Coat/detailing, gas savings, and savings on regular ICE maintenance, my 36 months of ownership of my Model S will have cost $31.93 per day if I sell it back at the guaranteed amount.

    I love my 60. If I was comfortable with it, I would have gotten a P85. But ~$70 a day is not yet something I can handle.
     
  6. martinwinlow

    martinwinlow Member

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    I wonder what will happen to the 'Guaranteed buyback' cars? Refurbed and offered at an appropriately 'low' used price for those of us who might be able to afford but wouldn't consider a £100k car (even if it is a Tesla)...?
     
  7. Bobfitz1

    Bobfitz1 Member

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    Terrific analysis Pfbz! Has me thinking to go a similar route early next year. I'm hoping by then there will be an option or aftermarket to upgrade handling of Standard. Test driving a P85 some months back left me feeling some firmer sport handling would make the feel just right.
    Question for you. How many miles per year do you anticipate for the 3 year period and how does the buy back % change as miles on car you are selling back gets higher? If an MS 60 was my work week commuter car, I'd put 25K each year on it. So sell back would be with 75K miles.
    Thanks for your thoughts.
     
  8. neroden

    neroden Happy Model S Owner

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    I got an ordinary 85. I have already taken trips which exceeded the 60's battery size. (The trip to the double feature at the drive-in burned a lot of juice sitting still.) Pay attention to your range.
     
  9. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    This word does not apply to any flavor of Model S.
     

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