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Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by Deeppurple, Apr 18, 2018.
And who exactly was Tesla supposed to get high quality, high volume drive units from?
Don't know but if they were able to contract with whoever manufactures known-long lasting motors for industrial applications or quality electric trains and subways...
Examples of companies that make bullet trains that should have high quality long-lasting motors from 300 Series Shinkansen - Wikipedia which were in service when Model S was still being engineered:
Hitachi, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Kinki Sharyo, Nippon Sharyo
I've visited Japan 6x and have taken bullet trains on some of my trips there, including all the way Hakata staion in Fukuoka to Tokyo Station. The path by car is ~680 miles, one way. I'd many bullet trains in Japan travel that length or more in a day. Looking at Google Maps, even on Nozomi trains (w/the fewest stops), the trip is 5 hours and 3 minutes w/11 stops.
On longer straight stretches, I've clocked speeds w/my GPS unit and later my smartphone of over 160 mph...
N700 Series Shinkansen - Wikipedia are current and widespread. While looking to see how many axles were powered typically, I found http://www.japantransport.com/seminar/JRCENTRAL.pdf on the N700-I (derived from the N700). Looks like in the longest configuration for 1 train, 56 axles are powered
Ford introduced F series in 1948. They have ramped to 1 million over 70 years. I do not believe it will be difficult to beat that ramp
You think what?
In "a few years"? With what plants?
That's 1 million a year in demand driven production, not production limited sales. They keep adding capacity as more trucks are sold. Comparing Ford's 1 million F-series a year is not at all the same as what Tesla is trying to do with its Model 3 production. It's not a "ramp"; they've been running those huge numbers for decades. Trying to "beat" it (whatever that implies) will be VERY difficult, if not impossible.
Pickups sell in such huge numbers because they are more or less a commercial vehicle. Sales of sedans or SUVs will never approach that of pickups because that's not what the working folk of this country use to get their job done.
Tesla started Model 3 production in July 2017 and should be producing 10K/week sometime in 2019 -- roughly 2 years.
Tesla will probably start producing Model Y in late 2019. In the past they have said they will build a new factory but we won't know for sure until later this year. They will probably be planning for larger production for the Y than the 3 (Elon has mentioned 1 million/year as a possible target). But assuming they grow at the same rate as Model 3 they would be producing 500K Model Y by the end of 2021.
So we can add some more cushion and say they hit a production rate of 1M 3/Y by 2022. If so, they will achieve the same production rate in 5 years that Ford has after 70 years with the F-Series. Not too shabby.
(And this ignores Gigafactories in Europe and China, which probably will also produce 3s and/or Ys.)
Ford has been making cars for over 100 years, so how come it can’t make a compelling EV? Experience and skill in one area doesn’t necessarily translate to another area.
So let me get this straight -- You think there is a 1 million per year annual demand for just the sedan model Tesla?
Are you aware there is not a single sedan currently produced by anyone that even tops 400K annually?
Without commercial use demand, exactly who is going to buy all these Teslas?
And I have issue with your "grow at the same rate" assumption. Tesla is still in early stages and it's not likely to sustain that growth rate.
And any factory that broke ground today, would not be ready to produce cars any sooner than "a few years".
Best selling car models worldwide 2017 | Statistic and The World's Most Popular Vehicles Of 2017: Cars Still Rule, But SUVs Coming On Strong
Toyota Corolla over 924,000 in 2017 (Toyota sold 1,160,495 in 2017, but I guess they didn't build them all in 2017)
VW Golf over 867,000 in 2017 (sold 788,044 in 2017, I guess they had some sitting around after that)
Honda Civic over 800,000 in 2017 (Sold 833,017 in 2017, production in line with sales for this one)
and that isn't covering all the SUVs and trucks.
I don't know why you Think Tesla can't sell more than any single car currently made when the overall market for sedans is obviously in the millions and Tesla can steal market share from multiple cars, multiple categories, and multiple companies all at the same time.
I could give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you looked at US sales or North American sales and forgot about Europe, China, India, Africa, rest of Asia, Australia, and Central/South America.
As a clue global vehicle production in 2016 was 94,976,569 aka over 94 million, so it's probably between 95 and 100 million a year now. For Tesla to get to 1 million cars a year isn't even 1% of the market.
Yes, I do think Tesla can find demand enough to take 1% of the global market share. Why don't you?
Yeah, I just made it up, because I had a point to prove...
Calm down chief, the figure is 388,618 for the Camry, as reported by Toyota to Automotive News. And of course we are talking US sales, in reference to the 900K Ford F150's sold last year here... The thread title and all that... reading is hard.
I don't know how you can just assume that Tesla will outsell everyone else and steal considerable chunks of market share just by sheer nature of being the Coolest Thing Ever. Believe it or not, there are still vast millions of car buyers out there who have no idea what a Tesla is or how to go about buying one. And don't discount the brand loyalty that people have. People are still inexplicably buying Mitsubishis, after all.
You replied to this quote
The first half of that is talking global numbers, not US. Sure he mentions F-150 is the most popular vehicle in the US but slow down and read and you could easily see he is talking overall production not just US sales.
I don't know how you think 1% of sales is "considerable chunks of market share" but in case you haven't noticed they took double digit market share from the luxury sedan market segment. I see no reason for that not to translate into more than 1% share for the model 3 overall (coming out of multiple market segments).
What nonsense. Fact tesla ramping a lot faster than f150 did
You are right. A low volume, high cost, weight insensitive producer in Japan would be perfect.
So you're comparing the ramp of the Model 3 to the "ramp" of the F-series, which began production in 1948?
It's not as if Ford's goal in 1948 was to build a million a year and it's taken 70 years to get there.
Your comparison is stupid, I don't know how else to put it.
Funny you state comparison was mine. Go back through the thread and you will see I was commenting on someone else’s comparison and why ford could get to make 900,000 f series and tesla could not.
Wasn't it you who said "Fact tesla ramping a lot faster than f150 did"? Is that a comparison?
Anyone Tesla fan taking pride in how quickly Tesla might get to any volume production of the Model 3 versus how long it's taken Ford to get the F-series to nearly a million-a-year volume needs to put down the glass of Kool-Aid and take a few deep breaths. As I said above, Ford didn't set out in 1948 to build nearly 1 million F1's in 1948 and have struggled for the last 70 years to get meet that goal. So any comparison of Ford's "ability to ramp" versus Tesla's in this manner is pretty nonsensical, wouldn't you agree?
In regards to the OP's question, it is the thing that haunts Tesla the most, isn't it? Frankly, I'm surprised Tesla wasn't more prepared for this, it's not as if everyone didn't know what the plan was. Shouldn't they have people on staff by now who are good at this? There's lots of talent out there that I would think would have welcomed the challenge.
I would imagine that the legacy manufacturers are looking upon Tesla's struggles to get to 5000 cars a week with a bit of amusement. They manage this type of output in their sleep. So I agree it's a bit of a mystery, but my guess is Tesla is simply resource-limited at the moment.
You could almost argue Tesla might have been well-served to employ a contract assembler to help out at first. Shoot, Subaru of America even used to build Camrys for Toyota when they had excess capacity.
Interesting comments about build processes, which one would expect would allow increased production with less quality issues, at minute 37:00
( thanks for whoever posted this on another TMC thread )
LOOK AT POST 1 IF YOU BOTHER TO READ THREAD you will see my response was in comparison OP stated.
I disagree. There aren't too many vehicles made at 5k/ week level period.
This is an older article (2012) but at 5k/ week Model 3 + S & V volume would put Fremont at the top of the list of US automotive single plant output.
So no, Tesla isn't shooting for something that is easy for anyone.
There has been a lot of good posts on the differences between Ford and Tesla.
In general Tesla has the same philosophy as SpaceX for development which is more of a Agile method with sparse Matrix engineering. We can see this in the Model S and X with tweaks as production rolls along and the lack of Model year for the cars. The cars are constantly evolving and how Tesla deploys what would be called "BETA" code into production cars.
If the Model 3 was being produced by a Nissan, Ford or GM. Let's just put on our imagination hat for a minute. None of these companies would have said Model 3 entered production in 2017. The first Model year would have been 2019. Large auto companies have what are called pre-production assembly lines. They work out ahead of time in a separate factory all the possible problems with production. Which if you compare to Tesla is the complete opposite. Tesla doesn't have the time and money to work out everything ahead of time in a separate factory. They then take these pre-production cars and test, test and test some more.
That way when they announce a car is ready for release, it is full baked and ready for mass production.
This is how traditionally things have been done in the manufacturing world. Tesla and SpaceX both approach the process of delivering goods as more like "Software". How many times is the first release of a piece of software buggy and has issues and then you have to wait for the first code updates? If you look at the Falcon 9 it has constantly evolved since 2010 with improvements and tweaks, the final version has over double the performance of the original. This is fairly typical of how Agile works for development compared to the traditional Waterfall method for development. Both methods have their pros and cons.