SpiceWare
Member
True - I was the first to post about Victoria being under construction and it was much further along than anybody had expected.
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Tesla Supercharger network
- Thread starter dsm363
- Start date
True - I was the first to post about Victoria being under construction and it was much further along than anybody had expected.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Concrete and asphalt have different formulations based on where you are using them and the expected temperatures and humidity they'll face (with concrete it might be the curing time instead of mixture but still an issue).
If you do an install in Canada or a northern US state near canada you don't care if the ground is frozen.
If you do an install in Louisiana and the ground is frozen you have to wait for temps to rise or you can't work with the proper mix or in the proper time frame.
If you try it with a asphalt mix thin enough for the cold it will be too this for the hot come summer.
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flankspeed8
Member
If winter were the cause, it would be the same year after year. Clearly they are building less SuperCharger's this winter than past. How about Tesla is just stretched incredibly thin right now as they have a lot on their plate and this is not a priority?
BTW, Worthington, MN and Albert Lea, MN began construction in the dead of winter 2013 according to supercharge.info.
BTW, Worthington, MN and Albert Lea, MN began construction in the dead of winter 2013 according to supercharge.info.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I think you are confusing season and climate for weather
season = time of year
climate = average of weather over 10 years
weather = what it is doing right now or on the days they were trying to work on a new supercharger
Just because a specific supercharger was built during winter doesn't mean another supercharger can be done the same way.
AMPd
Well-Known Member
I'd like to apologize for my SC behavior today!
Heres what happened: I woke up with 220 miles of range, went to work losing about 40 miles after a few detours.
I was down to 170 something.
At work my boss had a meeting 60 miles away... I, forgetting my late night plans foolishly volunteered to drive.
I got back to work with 40 plus miles and 2.5 hours before I was supposed to pick up my date.
GREAT! I have 40 miles of range and only 2 hours at most to charge at home.
So I decided to instead drive to the Roseville SC, on the way there I was thinking to stop off at a flower shop to pick up some flowers. Instead I went straight to the SC, there I summoned an UBER who drove me to the nearest flower shop and took me back to the SC.
I was the only car there when I arrived.
My apologies! this was a very rare bind that I hope will not occur in the future.
Heres what happened: I woke up with 220 miles of range, went to work losing about 40 miles after a few detours.
I was down to 170 something.
At work my boss had a meeting 60 miles away... I, forgetting my late night plans foolishly volunteered to drive.
I got back to work with 40 plus miles and 2.5 hours before I was supposed to pick up my date.
GREAT! I have 40 miles of range and only 2 hours at most to charge at home.
So I decided to instead drive to the Roseville SC, on the way there I was thinking to stop off at a flower shop to pick up some flowers. Instead I went straight to the SC, there I summoned an UBER who drove me to the nearest flower shop and took me back to the SC.
I was the only car there when I arrived.
My apologies! this was a very rare bind that I hope will not occur in the future.
I think the most likely reason for slow supercharger growth so far this year is cash flow. The network is good enough for now and Tesla needs to prove to investors that it can make money, so this quarter is a regrouping quarter where they are spending as little as possible and focusing on sales. Even if they don't get complete positive cash flow this quarter, but can essentially break even, that will probably satisfy investors. A lot of the bears have been criticizing Tesla for their negative cash flow, even though the reasons for their cash flow situation are very different than many established companies with huge fixed cost overheads.
Traditionally, the beginning of the year has always been slow unless they used January to finish up the previous year's builds. This year they got them built in Nov/Dec so January looks slower than last year. There are now eleven in permitting that we know about (and probably some that aren't).
I posted this in the short term stock thread, but it is apropos here:
The Supercharger book value is only about $160 million - that's the entire network. The Supercharger construction costs are mostly born *before* visible construction takes place. After all, all the equipment must already have been purchased, the architectural plans, the permitting process, and so forth. Visible construction phase itself might only be about 25% of the cost. From the start of a site to completion is likely a 6-12 month process. I don't think Supercharger construction has all that much to do with quarterly numbers.
If you look at the graphs on supercharge.info you'll see that the global trend of Superchargers is pretty much even through 2015. The U.S. build out has pretty much the same slope.
Now where those Superchargers are going is something else. In some cases, the Supercharger rollout is about enabling new routes, in some cases it's about handling demand along existing routes. When Tesla concentrates on existing routes, that looks less appealing to those that are awaiting new routes to open up.
In any case, I think Tesla knows they need to continue to build out and whatever is going on is short term. I can say that now that I'm almost fully surrounded by Superchargers.
The Supercharger book value is only about $160 million - that's the entire network. The Supercharger construction costs are mostly born *before* visible construction takes place. After all, all the equipment must already have been purchased, the architectural plans, the permitting process, and so forth. Visible construction phase itself might only be about 25% of the cost. From the start of a site to completion is likely a 6-12 month process. I don't think Supercharger construction has all that much to do with quarterly numbers.
If you look at the graphs on supercharge.info you'll see that the global trend of Superchargers is pretty much even through 2015. The U.S. build out has pretty much the same slope.
Now where those Superchargers are going is something else. In some cases, the Supercharger rollout is about enabling new routes, in some cases it's about handling demand along existing routes. When Tesla concentrates on existing routes, that looks less appealing to those that are awaiting new routes to open up.
In any case, I think Tesla knows they need to continue to build out and whatever is going on is short term. I can say that now that I'm almost fully surrounded by Superchargers.
Andyw2100
Well-Known Member
So...how did the date go?
(You can wait until it's over to post! I realize it may be happening as I type this.)
purplewalt
Active Member
Got it.
Basically my point is:
The Contractors building Superchargers have done whatever they need to do (e.g.: build temporary tents and have salamanders to heat the inside while they lay bricks), and use the correct add-mixture for the concrete or asphalt.
Not saying that it NEVER freezes in Louisiana or the deeper SouthEast, but it is certainly rare when and if it does.
The winters in the North are cold and have travel and ground conditions which will test the mettle and resourcefulness of the Construction Teams.
I guarantee it will be ultra-hot in the Summer months in the South and SouthEast.
I am simply suggesting that TM schedule Supercharger work with the climate and the seasons to get the most done while the conditions are less severe (as determined by the climate).
flankspeed8
Member
Ok, as a Minnesotan who certainly knows what cold and weather is, December 2013 was far more brutal than December 2015 yet they managed to build out the 2 sites I referenced in rather extreme weather. But hey, thanks for the primer on weather. As if it made and difference.
Weather is not the reason.
AMPd
Well-Known Member
It was fantastic! We met up at the first location but went together in my model s to the next, she loved the car, never been in one.So...how did the date go?
(You can wait until it's over to post! I realize it may be happening as I type this.)
Needless to say, date number 2 is on the books!
Andyw2100
Well-Known Member
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Let me look at this objectively for a second, I guess we are talking quantity.
5 opened in Jan 2016 in USA, 14 opened in jan 2015 in USA
bigger difference if you care about Canada (not that you shouldn't just saying if that is your focus it's even worse)
0 opened in Canada in Jan 2016 and 4 opened in Canada in Jan 2015
at least 4 are in construction in US right now.
since this thread seems to welcome worrying about slight variations in supercharger completion rates how about we say the people in charge of permits and planning have been call to an all hands on deck team for getting Model X vehicles completed and out of the building.
Or maybe the Supercharger team is taking a well-deserved vacation?
Where I work, the fiscal year ends in September and it's nearly impossible to take a vacation at any time during September. Once October rolls around, it seems half the office is empty as everyone takes time off to decompress. Maybe it works similarly on Tesla's Supercharger team? While Superchargers can be built in winter, I'm sure it's the slower time of the year planning-wise. What better time to take a vacation?
Visible construction is at the tail end of a long process. I suspect that if there was a capex reason, they actually did slow down in the middle of last year and we are now just seeing it. And when they ramp back up, it will take a bit to see that. If it was a financial slow down, I suspect they slowed down right before the capital raise, and then ramped back up... and we see it on the ground about 3-4 months later.
Also, if they are building out in some new countries in eastern Europe and southwestern Europe, our spy network might not be up to snuff. For that matter, there are definitely states in the U.S. where that might be the case too - if I remember right, the first Supercharger in AL was a big surprise.
Also, if they are building out in some new countries in eastern Europe and southwestern Europe, our spy network might not be up to snuff. For that matter, there are definitely states in the U.S. where that might be the case too - if I remember right, the first Supercharger in AL was a big surprise.
CHRGIT
Member
Of the 4 currently under construction in the US, only Slidell was documented as started construction in the last 90 days (supercharge.info). Slidell was the only station to start construction in the US in January. The other 3, Beatty, Freemont-2 & Napa are 3 to 5 months in the construction process. My initial observation was regarding the lack of recent new construction.
Cottonwood
Roadster#433, Model S#S37
The rate of Supercharger installs has been irregular since the beginning. I would not get too excited by a month or two of data. This graph is from supercharge.info. We have had plenty of flat periods in the past.
As Superchargers start going into more remote locations, there are fewer TMC sleuths around and fewer locations have web reports of permits. If you look at the Opening Soon sites on the Tesla "Today" page, then sites like Jackson, MS; Champaign, IL; Terra Haute IN; and Hampton Bays, NY are shown, but are not on supercharge.info yet. My spidey senses tell me something should be happening soon at these locations.
If you look at that map closely, there are even two, grey, coming-soon markers in the LA region that no one has talked about, yet...
As Superchargers start going into more remote locations, there are fewer TMC sleuths around and fewer locations have web reports of permits. If you look at the Opening Soon sites on the Tesla "Today" page, then sites like Jackson, MS; Champaign, IL; Terra Haute IN; and Hampton Bays, NY are shown, but are not on supercharge.info yet. My spidey senses tell me something should be happening soon at these locations.
If you look at that map closely, there are even two, grey, coming-soon markers in the LA region that no one has talked about, yet...
The one gray pin I can make out appears to be the recently opened Burbank location.
Cottonwood
Roadster#433, Model S#S37
Could be...but maybe another Supercharger in the area to relieve the load on Burbank.
The other grey pin is to the SE, and could be something in the Santa Ana area on the 5.
Here is an enlargement of the area of interest. Note that even the grey shadows under the pins are slightly north of the actual locations.
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