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Tesla Supercharger network
- Thread starter dsm363
- Start date
So people road trip to SCs and stores? Yeah, try again. There are 5 stores and 2 service centres in Italy.
Where 22% of vehicles sold in the past couple months have been EVs, versus a European average of 1,5%, and countries' like Italy's 0,1%. A country that is also easy to serve with only a minimal amount of infrastructure. And as high as our current numbers are, we're also one of the fastest growing (year to year) markets in Europe.
When EAFO updates their numbers for August, we'll probably be in 11th place in Europe. Not "11th place in market penetration" - 11th place in total EV sales. Ahead of Finland, way ahead of Denmark, ahead of Portugal, ahead of Switzerland, ahead of Ireland, etc, etc, etc. Despite our physically small size and population, we're one of the largest EV markets in the world. And we have zero Tesla stores, and zero service centres, beyond, obviously, zero superchargers. Despite being a very easy market to serve (one store and SC in Reykjavík = right near 75% of the population; a few superchargers = access to almost all of the country's population centres)
And FYI, there are two ferries to Iceland (one from Denmark, one from the Netherlands) - people do road trip here from the mainland. And for the majority who don't take their own vehicle, we're heavily visited by people in countries with high EV adoption rates (Scandinavia, esp, Norway, Northern Europe in general, China and the US, etc) who - at present - have no possibility of renting an EV here and having it actually take them between tourism destinations, and thus have no choice but to rent ICEs. Our tourism market slants toward people with an interest in environmentalism as well.
But more important than being able to road trip, when it comes to the decision of what vehicle to buy, is simply can you actually get to normal destinations in your everyday life. And we can't even do that because we have zero superchargers, but our main road around the country is 1332km long.
And do you really want to go on the "road trip" argument as your excuse for everything? Okay, how about Hawaii? At our current rates (ignoring our ~240% year-over-year growth) we'll buy more EVs in a year than have ever been purchased in Hawaii. Oahu has no need at all for superchargers (you can circle the island twice on a charge), yet it is getting two. Maui has a tiny fraction the population / market of Oahu, less than half the population of Island along with a much lower EV adoption rate, you can also take the longest route twice on one charge there, and it still is getting a supercharger. Are people, pray tell, road tripping from California and Japan through Hawaii?
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Karen is making very compelling arguments. I was skeptical and now I am completely sold. The comparison with Hawaii Islands reallly tells the difference and highlights the need for Tesla to get Iceland on its map.
But again this forum and folks in here don't matter. If Karen is using this forum as a sounding board, then it is time to take it up with officials channels whatever that is
But again this forum and folks in here don't matter. If Karen is using this forum as a sounding board, then it is time to take it up with officials channels whatever that is
Chuq
Active Member
The rationale for SCs on Oahu (and maybe for Maui) is for apartment dwellers unable to plug in easily/safely and also to support taxis. One would suppose the same criteria for Iceland. But Iceland presents a certain confusion re Mercator projection maps making it appear artificially huge thus people tend to (over)compensate in their minds. How best to understand the actual size of Iceland compared to well known regions? Better yet, remove all the areas that have no road access for EVs and then do you end up with an equivalent of Connecticut or (gasp) Kauai? Enquiring minds need to know . . .
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SmartElectric
Active Member
If I am road tripping, I should hope there are service centers along the way, makes entire sense.
Also, when visiting Italy, it makes sense to site stores in upscale places where world travelers who have "Tesla money" may shop. Even if I don't buy the car in Italy, I saw one in a mall while shopping.
Comment on why I believe road trips are a critical element of Tesla sales success:
Ontario Canada where I live sold hundreds of Tesla's recently, and our supercharger network is not built out like I would hope, but it's existent, and enables our long distance trips, like the one we're doing this weekend of 600 km. Road trips are precisely the reason we bought the Tesla four our "second" EV (including my Smart ED).
Of the meager few hundred plug-in cars sold in your country monthly, only 1 pure EV (Leaf) is in the top 15, the rest are gas powered cars with minimal EV range. Your claims are attempting to put gas powered cars with small battery packs as "EV's", which is intellectually dishonest on the face of the data:
EV Sales: Iceland June 2017
You are posting better examples for your complaints. If you search within yourself you might find that Hawaii still has a $7500 federal rebate, whereas your country has no incentives.
This article puts a stark face on the reality of Iceland's "push" for EV's:
The Future is Coming: Electric Cars In Iceland - The Reykjavik Grapevine
I suggest you search within yourself before assuming I don't understand fully why Iceland is not a market Tesla is prioritizing at the moment. I do understand, and if I was Tesla, I'd make the same rational, factual analysis and direct my efforts as they have done.
Nothing more, I actually look forward to visiting Iceland some day, as a side trip on my way to Europe, which is where you likely the way your country gets a lot of your visitors. Europe is still my primary destination, not Iceland, sad as that may be, as Iceland looks amazing to visit.
SmartElectric
Active Member
Unless the facts are different, a logical thinking person like Elon will have already been told by his infrastructure team where the focal areas are, and if he felt Iceland was important, he'd have changed the plan.
Elon grew up in rural Canada, and yet the place where he spent that time has zero Tesla infrastructure. He did reply to a tweet on this earlier this year, but there is no progress, as Tesla has higher priorities.
Face it : Iceland is not an area where the investment will pay off, and Tesla cannot afford to spend unwisely.
I'm just posting this here to counter Karen's misplaced urgency for Tesla infrastructure in her country, even though I my personally look forward to visiting Iceland and enjoying it's sights, that doesn't mean it makes logical and business sense for Tesla.
Here is an update on the status of North American "Coming Soon" superchargers. There were by my count 283 on the Find Us page as of April 24th which claimed to have a target opening date in 2017. Including expansions, 11 stations came online in May, 10 in June, 10 in July, 18 in August, and 23 in September which is a pace which would complete about 40% of Tesla's ambitious 2017 supercharger network expansion plans. The pace of openings will continue to be rapid, however, as the number of sites in permitting or under construction remains very high. Below is a list of the sites that came online in September and the 58 sites for which we have information or at least rumors on their location.
Just for fun, below are the remaining 163 sites for which we need to sleuth out information:
Montgomery AL, Phoenix AZ, Bakersfield II CA, Calabasas CA, Commerce CA, Corona CA, Cupertino CA, Daly City CA, Downey CA, El Cajon CA, Emeryville CA, Fairfield CA, Folsom III CA, Fresno II CA, Glendale CA, Hayward CA, Hesperia CA, Hollywood CA, Irvine CA, La Jolla CA, Lake Elsinore CA, Laytonville CA, Lone Pine II CA, Long Beach CA, Marin City CA, Napa II CA, Northridge CA, Palm Desert CA, Pasadena CA, Petaluma II CA, Pomona CA, Redding CA, Redondo Beach CA, Roseville II CA, San Bernardino CA, San Felipe CA, San Francisco (Financial Dist) CA, San Francisco (Mission) CA, San Francisco (SOMA) CA, San Jose CA, San Luis Obispo CA, San Mateo (Hillsdale) CA, San Mateo II CA, San Rafael CA, San Ramon CA, Santa Barbara CA, Santa Cruz CA, Santa Monica CA, Sherman Oaks CA, Stockton CA, Sunnyvale CA, Thousand Oaks CA, Vallejo CA, Vista CA, Alamosa CO, Aspen CO, Boulder CO, Denver II CO, Estes Park CO, Lone Tree II CO, Poncha Springs CO, Darien III CT, North Stamford CT, Old Lyme CT, Stamford CT, Torrington CT, Trumbull CT, Washington DC, Boca Raton FL, Fort Myers FL, Miami (Brickell) FL, Orlando FL, West Palm Beach FL, Atlanta III GA, Buford GA, Madison GA, Honolulu HI, Altoona IA, Shelby IA, Sioux City IA, Chicago (Lincoln Park) IL, Chicago III IL, New Orleans LA, Beverly MA, Braintree MA, Lynnfield MA, Mansfield MA, Natick MA, Orleans MA, Seekonk MA, Wareham MA, Beltsville MD, Halethorpe MD, St. Clair Shores MI, Alexandria MN, Minneapolis MN, Kansas City MO, St. Louis MO, Hattiesburg MS, Statesville NC, Fargo ND, North Conway NH, Barnegat Township NJ, Florence NJ, Hackensack NJ, Jersey City NJ, Mount Laurel NJ, Newark NJ, Paramus NJ, Parsippany-Troy Hills NJ, Woodbridge NJ, Socorro NM, Brooklyn (Williamsburg) NY, Brooklyn II NY, Clinton Corners NY, Hicksville NY, Islandia NY, Lower Manhattan NY, Manhattan (Midtown) NY, Manhattan III NY, Queens NY, Yonkers NY, Boardman OR, Portland OR, Springfield II OR, Tigard OR, King of Prussia PA, Philadelphia PA, Charleston SC, Florence SC, Nashville II TN, Austin (Downtown) TX, Dilley TX, Fort Stockton TX, Fort Worth TX, Fredericksburg TX, Houston II TX, Laredo TX, Pecos TX, Plano TX, San Antonio TX, Wichita Falls TX, Fairfax VA, Richmond VA, Tysons VA, Bellevue WA, Lynnwood WA, Okanogan WA, Olympia WA, Seattle WA, Wenatchee WA, Milwaukee WI, Oshkosh WI, Sturgeon Bay WI, Wheatland WY, Calgary AB, Sicamous BC, Tsawwassen BC, Vancouver BC, Barrie II ON, Belleville ON, Cambridge ON, Concord ON, Hamilton ON, Markham ON, Mississauga (Meadowvale) ON, Mississauga II ON, North York ON, Ottawa ON, Owen Sound ON, Pickering ON, Renfrew ON, St. Catherines ON, Stardale ON, Sudbury ON, Toronto ON, Vaughan ON, Charlemagne QC, Drummondville QC, La Malbaie QC, Point-Claire QC, Saguenay QC, Saint Therese QC, Trois-Rivieres QC
| Location | Site Known? | Status |
| Oxford, AL | yes | awaiting transformer |
| Tucson, AZ | yes | under construction |
| Willcox, AZ | yes | construction imminent |
| Baker, CA | yes | under construction |
| Burbank II, CA | yes | operational |
| Carlsbad, CA | yes | in permitting |
| Concord, CA | yes | in permitting |
| Fountain Valley, CA | yes | expansion in permitting |
| Fremont, CA | yes | under construction hiatus |
| Kettleman City, CA | yes | under construction |
| Sacramento, CA | yes | under construction |
| Salinas, CA | yes | under construction |
| San Clemente, CA | yes | under construction |
| Truckee I (Gateway Center), CA | yes | expansion in permitting |
| Yermo, CA | yes | under construction |
| Danbury, CT | yes | awaiting transformer / hookup |
| Manchester, CT | yes | under construction |
| West Hartford II, CT | maybe | in site selection |
| Lewes, DE | yes | construction imminent |
| Altamonte Springs, FL | yes | in permitting |
| Aventura, FL | maybe | in site selection |
| Miami - Wynwood, FL | maybe | in site selection |
| West Melbourne, FL | yes | in permitting |
| Chicago - Lakeshore East, IL | yes | operational |
| Rolling Meadows, IL | yes | awaiting power on / testing |
| Fort Wayne, IN | yes | operational |
| Colby, KS | yes | awaiting power on / testing |
| Emporia, KS | yes | in design / permitting |
| Boston, MA | yes | operational |
| Leominster, MA | yes | under construction |
| Gaithersburg, MD | yes | under construction |
| National Harbor, MD | yes | opening imminent |
| North East, MD | yes | operational |
| Freeport, ME | yes | under construction |
| Auburn Hills, MI | maybe | construction imminent? |
| Lansing, MI | yes | operational |
| Livonia, MI | yes | under construction |
| Traverse City, MI | yes | operational |
| Rochester, MN | yes | under construction |
| Sherburn, MN | yes | under construction? |
| Greensboro, NC | yes | in permitting |
| Hickory, NC | yes | in permitting |
| Raleigh, NC | yes | in permitting |
| Burlington, NJ | yes | operational |
| Deming, NM | yes | under construction? |
| Manorville, NY | maybe | in permitting? |
| New Rochelle, NY | yes | in permitting |
| Toledo, OH | yes | under construction |
| Grants Pass, OR | yes | expansion under construction |
| Bellefonte, PA | yes | under construction |
| Carlisle, PA | yes | operational |
| Hermitage, PA | yes | operational |
| Irwin, PA | yes | operational |
| Wexford, PA | yes | operational |
| Oacoma, SD | yes | under construction |
| Sioux Falls, SD | yes | under construction |
| Cookeville, TN | yes | awaiting transformer / hookup |
| Dickson, TN | yes | operational |
| Austin (North Loop), TX | yes | awaiting power on / testing |
| Corsicana, TX | yes | expansion operational |
| Dallas, TX | yes | in permitting |
| Italy, TX | yes | operational |
| Nacogdoches, TX | yes | operational |
| Southlake, TX | yes | in permitting |
| Waco, TX | yes | expansion operational |
| Charlottesville, VA | yes | operational |
| Chester, VA | yes | operational |
| Centralia, WA | yes | expansion operational |
| Snoqualmie, WA | maybe | in design / permitting |
| Green Bay (Howard), WI | yes | operational |
| Madison II, WI | yes | in permitting |
| Oak Creek, WI | yes | under construction |
| Wausau, WI | yes | opening imminent |
| Beckley, WV | yes | under construction |
| Martinsburg, WV | yes | operational |
| Morgantown, WV | yes | operational |
| Weston, WV | yes | under construction |
| Brossard, QC | yes | under construction |
| Laval, QC | yes | in permitting |
| Lévis, QC | yes | awaiting power on / testing |
| Mascouche, QC | yes | in permitting |
Just for fun, below are the remaining 163 sites for which we need to sleuth out information:
Montgomery AL, Phoenix AZ, Bakersfield II CA, Calabasas CA, Commerce CA, Corona CA, Cupertino CA, Daly City CA, Downey CA, El Cajon CA, Emeryville CA, Fairfield CA, Folsom III CA, Fresno II CA, Glendale CA, Hayward CA, Hesperia CA, Hollywood CA, Irvine CA, La Jolla CA, Lake Elsinore CA, Laytonville CA, Lone Pine II CA, Long Beach CA, Marin City CA, Napa II CA, Northridge CA, Palm Desert CA, Pasadena CA, Petaluma II CA, Pomona CA, Redding CA, Redondo Beach CA, Roseville II CA, San Bernardino CA, San Felipe CA, San Francisco (Financial Dist) CA, San Francisco (Mission) CA, San Francisco (SOMA) CA, San Jose CA, San Luis Obispo CA, San Mateo (Hillsdale) CA, San Mateo II CA, San Rafael CA, San Ramon CA, Santa Barbara CA, Santa Cruz CA, Santa Monica CA, Sherman Oaks CA, Stockton CA, Sunnyvale CA, Thousand Oaks CA, Vallejo CA, Vista CA, Alamosa CO, Aspen CO, Boulder CO, Denver II CO, Estes Park CO, Lone Tree II CO, Poncha Springs CO, Darien III CT, North Stamford CT, Old Lyme CT, Stamford CT, Torrington CT, Trumbull CT, Washington DC, Boca Raton FL, Fort Myers FL, Miami (Brickell) FL, Orlando FL, West Palm Beach FL, Atlanta III GA, Buford GA, Madison GA, Honolulu HI, Altoona IA, Shelby IA, Sioux City IA, Chicago (Lincoln Park) IL, Chicago III IL, New Orleans LA, Beverly MA, Braintree MA, Lynnfield MA, Mansfield MA, Natick MA, Orleans MA, Seekonk MA, Wareham MA, Beltsville MD, Halethorpe MD, St. Clair Shores MI, Alexandria MN, Minneapolis MN, Kansas City MO, St. Louis MO, Hattiesburg MS, Statesville NC, Fargo ND, North Conway NH, Barnegat Township NJ, Florence NJ, Hackensack NJ, Jersey City NJ, Mount Laurel NJ, Newark NJ, Paramus NJ, Parsippany-Troy Hills NJ, Woodbridge NJ, Socorro NM, Brooklyn (Williamsburg) NY, Brooklyn II NY, Clinton Corners NY, Hicksville NY, Islandia NY, Lower Manhattan NY, Manhattan (Midtown) NY, Manhattan III NY, Queens NY, Yonkers NY, Boardman OR, Portland OR, Springfield II OR, Tigard OR, King of Prussia PA, Philadelphia PA, Charleston SC, Florence SC, Nashville II TN, Austin (Downtown) TX, Dilley TX, Fort Stockton TX, Fort Worth TX, Fredericksburg TX, Houston II TX, Laredo TX, Pecos TX, Plano TX, San Antonio TX, Wichita Falls TX, Fairfax VA, Richmond VA, Tysons VA, Bellevue WA, Lynnwood WA, Okanogan WA, Olympia WA, Seattle WA, Wenatchee WA, Milwaukee WI, Oshkosh WI, Sturgeon Bay WI, Wheatland WY, Calgary AB, Sicamous BC, Tsawwassen BC, Vancouver BC, Barrie II ON, Belleville ON, Cambridge ON, Concord ON, Hamilton ON, Markham ON, Mississauga (Meadowvale) ON, Mississauga II ON, North York ON, Ottawa ON, Owen Sound ON, Pickering ON, Renfrew ON, St. Catherines ON, Stardale ON, Sudbury ON, Toronto ON, Vaughan ON, Charlemagne QC, Drummondville QC, La Malbaie QC, Point-Claire QC, Saguenay QC, Saint Therese QC, Trois-Rivieres QC
Thank you for the update!
According to the following Melbourne is under construction Supercharger - West Melbourne, FL
There is nothing to "face". I'm presenting facts, and you're telling everyone here to ignore the facts.
Europe | EAFO (only up to July; should update soon to August)
Nýskráningar bíla (more recent, but only for Iceland; the last month on the graphs is always lower than the rest because it only represents a partial month's worth of registrations)
Do the math. The last full month saw 398 EV sales and (634+779=1413) ICE vehicles. That's 22,0%. The partial numbers in from the final month works out to 22,1%.
For a long time, your argument would have made sense. Iceland was only #3 in market penetration between 2013 and 2016, which combined with its small size meant a relatively small market. This is no longer the case. Our rate of growth is far faster than any other similar-sized EV market and this has rapidly expanded our market. 242% MTD / 194% YTD in July according to EAFO. This compares to 34%/24% in Norway, 33%/24% in the UK, -6%/12% in France, etc. The only countries with higher growth rates - Slovakia and Luxembourg - have insignificant-sized EV markets.
Right, because if your car breaks down on a road trip, you totally want it shipped to somewhere that you don't live while they fix it rather than a place where you do live. And FYI, there are service centres very close to the places where the Italian service centres are already.
So in your world, Tesla is building stores as tourist attractions for foreign visitors? "Hey honey, what should we see next? The canals of Venice? The Leaning Tower of Pisa? Oh, I know - let's hang out in a Tesla store on our vacation! Yeah, exactly like the ones in our own country, but this one's in Italy!"
That is exactly the point I'm making. You have superchargers where you live, and it makes it more likely for you to buy Teslas as a consequence. We don't, and it's a deterrent to buying Teslas as a consequence. Not as big of a deterrence as having to ship your car across the Atlantic if it breaks, mind you, but...
398 EVs is 11th place in Europe. And growing incredibly rapidly. It's not meager at all. And only needs one store and one service centre to service.
35% of our EV sales are BEVs, 65% PHEVs (not unusually short range; the most popular, the Outlander, is 33 miles electric range). 35% of EV sales being BEV is not an unusual number for Europe - Sweden, for example, is only 25% BEV, and Finland 21%. But more to the point, what the heck do you expect people to buy when we don't have superchargers - or even CCS/CHAdeMOs all the way around the country? "Hey, everyone! SmartElectric says you should all buy cars that can't actually get you to where you need to get to. Doesn't that sound like a great plan?"
Incorrect. You seem to think that a $7500, soon-to-be expired rebate is big. That's nothing. We don't have to pay the 24% VAT, nor the vörugjald (CO2-based), which can be as high as 65%. The difference between a base Model 3 and a base BMW 3-series of the same price is $22000. Start adding on options to both and the difference increases. Meanwhile, our gasoline fluctuates between $7-8 gallon - but our electricity is cheap.
But by all means, keep talking up your soon-to-be-expired $7,5k as if it's a lot (our deductions just got renewed for three years)
What a great illustration of exactly the points I've been making:
1) How fast the market is growing here: That publication date of May 2017 may seem recent, but the last month of data they had available to them - April - was only 116 EV sales (6% market penetration). Versus 398 EV sales (22% market penetration) in our most recent full month today.
2) Our biggest hindrance is a lack of infrastructure: Which is what I've been trying and trying to tell you. That, sadly, hasn't changed much since then. We got two more 50kW CCS/CHAdeMO chargers, so now you can get halfway around the country rather than 1/3rd of the way... but even when they finish the Ring Road (planned for by the end of the year), "road tripping" on CHAdeMO isn't exactly fast going.
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Doug Martoccia
Member
Write [email protected] an e-mail. Tesla has put in several Superchargers at locations that I suggested. Probably a coincidence, but maybe it does help.
Chuq
Active Member
He was born in South Africa. His father is an Afrikaan whose family has been there a long time, but his mother was an immigrant from Canada. Because she still has Canadian citizenship, he is a Canadian citizen by birth too. He went to school initially in Canada because he could emigrate to Canada with no hassles and getting into the US was tougher, though moving to the US was always his long term goal.
#1,000 !!!!
What a way to begin the 4th quarter.
Well done, Tesla.
What a way to begin the 4th quarter.
Well done, Tesla.
Drucifer
Active Member
And then there were 1000. 10/2/2017. About 2 months quicker than my guess in July.
I know most of the discussion to this point had been about the build out of the Supercharger network. Let's just look at the U.S. And Tesla recently has had a big push in deployments in advance of the Model 3. Starting in the high density corridors first, like LA-SF and LA-Vegas, and then going forward presumably to match demand elsewhere as the fleet grows.
Had anyone, other than Tesla, taken a stab at estimating how large the US Supercharger network will need to be?
The map shows that most of the country is covered, though there are some gaps that need filling. With more EV's on the road, already existing sites will probably be expanded to be larger versus just building new sites. And we are already seeing that.
Urban Supercharger sites catering to those who cannot charge at home are also beginning to be rolled out. But as time goes by and there are more EVs in use, condos and workplaces will eventually install charging infrastructure. This will happen over time, likely years, but will at some point decrease the need for Tesla to continuously construct urban Superchargers. Not a factor now, but certainly will be in 5-10 years.
I'm pretty sure Tesla has an idea of what's needed. They know that the Supercharger network delivers a certain % of the power that all the Teslas sold to date use. This is valuable info, so they are not likely to release exact details. But I would think that the % of Supercharger use versus home charging would be fairly stable over time. Let's say it's 10% just to pick a number out of the air.
The ultimate network size would then seem to need to scale to match the number of deployed vehicles. Wider deployment of home and work chargers will reduce that over time though, as will charging infrastructure built out by other companies. Presuming Teslas can use that infrastructure.
I would love to see the raw data, since that would provide answers to a lot of the questions. The recent large surge in construction and openings was expected, and previously announced by Tesla. So we are currently still in the "mass build out" phase of the Supercharger network.
Besides wondering about the eventually size, I wonder when the rate of stall openings will start to slow down. The network deployment is actually a one time cost that will start decreasing at some point. I would imagine the stall opening data over time would be an S curve. Maybe I'll have a look at the supercharger.info site if I get a chance and see if he has a graph for that.
Anyway, glad to see that we have hit 1,000 sites Worldwide. And despite the above speculation, I don't believe we will see deployments slowing anytime soon. I could also see a scenario where businesses start providing free charging to attract EV travelers. That would free up Tesla resources to deploy elsewhere. I think that the more EV's there are on the road the sooner we start seeing some of these agreements between Tesla and others (McDonalds, In-N-Out, etc).
RT
P.S. Just killing some time till the coffee shop opens
Had anyone, other than Tesla, taken a stab at estimating how large the US Supercharger network will need to be?
The map shows that most of the country is covered, though there are some gaps that need filling. With more EV's on the road, already existing sites will probably be expanded to be larger versus just building new sites. And we are already seeing that.
Urban Supercharger sites catering to those who cannot charge at home are also beginning to be rolled out. But as time goes by and there are more EVs in use, condos and workplaces will eventually install charging infrastructure. This will happen over time, likely years, but will at some point decrease the need for Tesla to continuously construct urban Superchargers. Not a factor now, but certainly will be in 5-10 years.
I'm pretty sure Tesla has an idea of what's needed. They know that the Supercharger network delivers a certain % of the power that all the Teslas sold to date use. This is valuable info, so they are not likely to release exact details. But I would think that the % of Supercharger use versus home charging would be fairly stable over time. Let's say it's 10% just to pick a number out of the air.
The ultimate network size would then seem to need to scale to match the number of deployed vehicles. Wider deployment of home and work chargers will reduce that over time though, as will charging infrastructure built out by other companies. Presuming Teslas can use that infrastructure.
I would love to see the raw data, since that would provide answers to a lot of the questions. The recent large surge in construction and openings was expected, and previously announced by Tesla. So we are currently still in the "mass build out" phase of the Supercharger network.
Besides wondering about the eventually size, I wonder when the rate of stall openings will start to slow down. The network deployment is actually a one time cost that will start decreasing at some point. I would imagine the stall opening data over time would be an S curve. Maybe I'll have a look at the supercharger.info site if I get a chance and see if he has a graph for that.
Anyway, glad to see that we have hit 1,000 sites Worldwide. And despite the above speculation, I don't believe we will see deployments slowing anytime soon. I could also see a scenario where businesses start providing free charging to attract EV travelers. That would free up Tesla resources to deploy elsewhere. I think that the more EV's there are on the road the sooner we start seeing some of these agreements between Tesla and others (McDonalds, In-N-Out, etc).
RT
P.S. Just killing some time till the coffee shop opens
Drucifer
Active Member
There are really 3 types of locations, though a location can serve more than one purpose.
1. Geographic coverage: This is what the majority of locations opened so far are for. These enable long routes between city pairs, but are driven by distance and not by density of Tesla driving populations. Most chargers in the central and mountain time zones fall into this. These also include coverage when entering a new market (like Korea or NZ).
2. Demand coverage: This is California Buttonwillow opening to relieve Bakersfield or the expansion of Delaware Newark expanding from 4 pedestals to 12. There haven't been too many of these yet, but they will be a growing number going forward.
3. Urban coverage. This is to handle vehicles of people who cannot charge at home or work. These were essentially zero until recently.
I expect that the growth rate won't need to increase as much as people think. In large part because the long haul routes with low density will not need additional resources for some time to come.
If you look at queuing theory, and the tech to know what locations are busy and shift the plans of drivers to charge in shorter or longer ranges to ease overcrowding at single locations, it's likely that the network can handle quite a bit more by merely adding some strategic demand coverage locations, expanding some existing locations, and adding some infill location.
TLDR: The supercharger network will need to grow for Model 3 and S/X population growth, but not linearly, so less than you might think.
1. Geographic coverage: This is what the majority of locations opened so far are for. These enable long routes between city pairs, but are driven by distance and not by density of Tesla driving populations. Most chargers in the central and mountain time zones fall into this. These also include coverage when entering a new market (like Korea or NZ).
2. Demand coverage: This is California Buttonwillow opening to relieve Bakersfield or the expansion of Delaware Newark expanding from 4 pedestals to 12. There haven't been too many of these yet, but they will be a growing number going forward.
3. Urban coverage. This is to handle vehicles of people who cannot charge at home or work. These were essentially zero until recently.
I expect that the growth rate won't need to increase as much as people think. In large part because the long haul routes with low density will not need additional resources for some time to come.
If you look at queuing theory, and the tech to know what locations are busy and shift the plans of drivers to charge in shorter or longer ranges to ease overcrowding at single locations, it's likely that the network can handle quite a bit more by merely adding some strategic demand coverage locations, expanding some existing locations, and adding some infill location.
TLDR: The supercharger network will need to grow for Model 3 and S/X population growth, but not linearly, so less than you might think.
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