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Discussion in 'Model S' started by onlinespending, May 9, 2012.
From their Q1 2012 shareholder letter
Link to the letter: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1142465437x0x567959/9429b5fe-3ebc-4e93-9fe9-7655b15301f1/Q1%202012%20Tesla%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf
this tesla rep was already informed apparently! ;-)
Amazing! I was hoping that August estimate was a conservative one. Looking forward to the remote cooling iPhone app the most for the Texas summer.
Care to speculate on rampup? Let's take the most cynical approach:
-- Founders delivered on or near 6/30/12
-- How many cars per week after that? Say 20-30/week for the first 2 weeks?
-- Perhaps ramp up to 100 week for about 4 weeks after?
-- That puts us at about SSL #260 at the end of July
-- If they boost that a bit to say 150/week after that, we'll be at 760 cars produced at the end of August
-- After that I guess they would ramp higher.
On the positive side, we could see those Founders like 6/10-6/15ish and see about 100 additional delivered by the end of June
Note that Tesla had previously said 5,00 cars to be produced his year....now they say 5,000 to be delivered.
As I posted in another thread, Tesla revised Q2 revenue up by $10million. At $100K per Signature Model S, that's 100 cars to be delivered in June.
EDIT: That is incorrect. They said yearly revenue will increase by $10million due to shipping sooner, but that Q2 revenue will be about the same as Q1 revenue. So, could be a lot fewer cars in June than 100. Sorry for the misinformation.
EDIT EDIT: Elon clarified in the conference call that they're planning on less than 100 cars in June. More than 1, he said. Probably in the 10-20-30 range.
There will be bottlenecks and caveats, but with your own factory and money to purchase raw materials, once you build a configuration once, you should be faster on the next build and so on. Assembly time for a given configuration should go down but hopefully not be above one 8 hour working day. So to think that the line could be spitting out 50 sigs per day in July is not unthinkable.
This is great to hear. More cars ship this year.. the better the stock.. the better the stock the higher chance ill pull the trigger and buy a model S
This is starting to make me giddy....when do we get to open the Christmas presents?!
This news makes it feel like Christmas.
Sounds like Christmas in August for me!
They still have to make sure they have a steady supply of batteries.
Now, I'm not suggesting that Panasonic isn't able to do that, but it's just another external supplier who needs to keep up with Tesla.
I think 50/day in July is a little optimistic.
They didn't actually commit to more cars, still 5000, just starting shipments earlier. I'd hope that means they have more margin for error and if things go well they would ship more cars, but they didn't actually commit to more cars
They did mention " deliver 5000 " Which is a nice thought.. I may have gotten a little excited. Cannot wait to see this car on the road
Ok, 49 per day :biggrin: The TM production line is a work of art and I'd expect a sig could roll off of the line about 1 per 10 minutes even with a small amount of reworks being needed. Each station (I think there are 17?) only takes about ~2 minutes according to the factory tour. Even the painting is super quick but not critical path as not every part is done in parallel.
If I was asked to produce X# units of one configuration (in this case S#) in one day my answer would be simple. Do I have enough manpower, do I have enough raw materials, do I have enough engineering support and how long did it take me to make the last one. I'd analyse the bottlenecks in the line, do a risk analysis and provide a % confidence. If the cost is prohibitive due to reworks and tooling caveats then we arrive at a lower # that meets the needs of financial as well as the business as a whole.
Very. The indication I got is that the initial deliveries will be very modest - just a handful of founder's cars at the end of June. Then they will build at a modest rate in July and slowly build from that. At some point in the fall there will be a very large increase in the build rate. I would assume that would have to happen by October at the latest, since they are still claiming they will build 5000 this year.
yes. remember, they hope to be at full capacity (20,000 cars per year) at years end. A 20,000 per day rate is a 55 per day clip. So no way they'll be at 50/day, which is virtually full capacity in July. The ramp up will be slow in the beginning. Not to mention if they were already at 50 / day say on August 1, then they would produce 7500 cars just in the months of Aug - Dec. With the additional cars in July and end of June, that'd put them at a number well north of 5,000 for 2012. Not gonna happen.
With production starting ahead of schedule, there might be +100 cars additionally produced in 2012. The ramp up is moved forward in time, meaning that the anticipated production rate near end of 2012 (400 cars a week) is reached earlier. Revenue will increase by actually selling these additional cars. Here's hoping!