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Tesla to make "exciting announcement on Thursday" (correction Tuesday)

What will Elon's "exciting announcement" be?


  • Total voters
    257
  • Poll closed .

woof

Fluffy Member
Apr 30, 2009
1,577
1,780
Isn't the point of solar city that its already free: they install the system and you pay, but still save money vs you current bill, for the electricity?

They do have a $0 down option, but the price difference per kWh vs the grid is pretty small, and they have an "escalator clause" where the price per solar kWh generated increases every year. This makes little financial sense with the price of grid power expected to go down for a while, and probably ends up being more expensive than grid power after a few years. Not a good deal, IMHO.

However, their pre-paid options can be a very good deal if you've got the right roof and will be in the house for 20+ years.

SolarCity will also sell you outright the whole system, but they price it very high, as they really don't want to sell. They'd much rather lease it to you so they reap the tax and renewable credits on a lease.
 

dhrivnak

Active Member
Jan 8, 2011
4,416
3,577
NE Tennessee
They will announce a new upgraded battery pack for the Roadster showing to all the world EV's can easily be upgraded. Imagine a new battery pack that saves weight, and with lower weight better performance and gives slightly better range for a cost well below the often quoted $40K brick.
 

Doug_G

Lead Moderator
Apr 2, 2010
17,881
3,347
Ottawa, Canada
Wow, 11 pages of speculation and counting. And now we have to wait until Tuesday... any bets on how many pages by then?

Changed the thread name to reflect new date...
 

agileone

CDN P#40
Dec 6, 2011
278
2
Montréal, Québec
I think you are looking way too far : Elon still has to settle his part of the 1k$ - 1M$ bet he had taken on way back regarding delivery of Model S, before the end of 2012.
If I recall the journalist did pay up his part of the bet, last summer, since it was clear that Model S would be delivered in 2012. Now, Elon did say that he would give his million dollar anyway, to "Médecins Sans Frontières", a group of doctors helping out in poor countries. I figure he will just pay up ...
 

vetboy45

Member
Feb 14, 2013
62
0
Kent wa
"I'm going to put my money where my mouth is in v major way."

It's so obvious. Just read the words. Elon is announcing his entry into the world of competitive eating by ingesting a significant portion of his fortune. Watch out Chestnut!
 

AnOutsider

S532 # XS27
Apr 3, 2009
11,957
200
Personally, I'm tempering my enthusiasm. We've been burned by Elon's pre-announcement hype before. Remember the pre-SC hype?

My thoughts exactly. I haven't been wowed by any announcements in a while. I think the 10/1 visit with the performance announcement was the last greatest. The X reveal was tepid and all downhill from there.
 

HawaNY

Member
Feb 22, 2012
37
0
They do have a $0 down option, but the price difference per kWh vs the grid is pretty small, and they have an "escalator clause" where the price per solar kWh generated increases every year. This makes little financial sense with the price of grid power expected to go down for a while, and probably ends up being more expensive than grid power after a few years. Not a good deal, IMHO.

However, their pre-paid options can be a very good deal if you've got the right roof and will be in the house for 20+ years.

SolarCity will also sell you outright the whole system, but they price it very high, as they really don't want to sell. They'd much rather lease it to you so they reap the tax and renewable credits on a lease.

Thanks! Yeah, that tells me that "free solar" for Tesla owners probably won't be it. Would be nice though.
 

aronth5

Long Time Follower
May 8, 2010
2,686
1,424
Boston Suburb
Personally, I'm tempering my enthusiasm. We've been burned by Elon's pre-announcement hype before. Remember the pre-SC hype?

If each Supercharger costs $250,000 to install, he could install 80 with $20 million. A lot of money sure but would be a major statement. Hopefully it's even something bigger.

I tend to agree that Elon does get pretty excited and then we have a let down. So funding the Supercharger network fits the bill.
 

PureAmps

Model S P85 (#2817)
Oct 22, 2012
359
7
SF Bay Area
My prediction (that I will put money on):

Elon will announce completion of 10,000th model S production vehicle and he will exercise 6,711,972 shares of Tesla stock received as part of his performance objectives. This will provide the company with $44.5M of cash assuming an exercise price of $6.63. He may or may not sell some of those shares immediately to cover taxes associated with the sale. My guess is that he will sell just enough shares to cover taxes, but hold the remaining amount.

Relevant section of the 10-K:

Included in the December 4, 2009 awards, were 6,711,972 stock options granted to our Chief Executive Officer comprised of two grants. In recognition of his and our company’s achievements and to create incentives for future success, the Board of Directors approved an option grant representing 4% of our fully-diluted share base prior to such grant as of December 4, 2009, or 3,355,986 stock options, with 1/4th of the shares vesting immediately, and 1/36th of the remaining shares scheduled to vest each month over three years, assuming continued employment through each vesting date. In addition, to create incentives for the attainment of clear performance objectives around a key element of our current business plan—the successful launch and commercialization of Model S—the Board of Directors approved additional options totaling an additional 4% of our fully-diluted shares prior to such grant as of December 4, 2009, with a vesting schedule based entirely on the attainment of performance objectives as follows, assuming Mr. Musk’s continued service to us through each vesting date:

• 1/4th of the shares subject to the option are scheduled to vest upon the successful completion of Model S Engineering Prototype;
• 1/4th of the shares subject to the option are scheduled to vest upon the successful completion of Model S Validation Prototype;
• 1/4th of the shares subject to the option are scheduled to vest upon the completion of the first Model S Production Vehicle; and
• 1/4th of the shares subject to the option are scheduled to vest upon the completion of the 10,000th Model S Production Vehicle.


If Mr. Musk does not meet one or more of the above milestones prior to the fourth anniversary of the date of grant, he will forfeit his right to the unvested portion of the grant.

His grant has two portions. The first half is a strict-time based vesting, which he has fully vested as of December 2012. The second-half is based on performance objectives of which he has hit all but the last one. Given the latest VINs are closing in 10,000, my guess is he will use this opportunity to announce 10k vehicles and give a cash infusion to the company.
 
Last edited:

SteveG3

Supporting Member
Sep 21, 2012
4,013
15,369
US
Perhaps Elon and George B have signed off on a new deal...

The dynamic duo pick up an S from D.C. store, and recreate Broder trip together. At Delaware S.C. stop, Elon personally funds all Popeye's related expenditures using new found cash reserves from Solar City stock sale post IPO lockup.
 

nygiants242

Member
Jul 26, 2012
92
34
My prediction (that I will put money on):

Elon will announce completion of 10,000th model S production vehicle and he will exercise 6,711,972 shares of Tesla stock received as part of his performance objectives. This will provide the company with $44.5M of cash assuming an exercise price of $6.63. He may or may not sell some of those shares immediately to cover taxes associated with the sale. My guess is that he will sell just enough shares to cover taxes, but hold the remaining amount.

Relevant section of the 10-K:



His grant has two portions. The first half is a strict-time based vesting, which he has fully vested as of December 2012. The second-half is based on performance objectives of which he has hit all but the last one. Given the latest VINs are closing in 10,000, my guess is he will use this opportunity to announce 10k vehicles and give a cash infusion to the company.

Interesting theory. Given the timing of this 10k vehicles announcement, where does that put us in terms of what the analysts were forecasting and/or the pace of 500 cars delivered per week? On track/above/below?
 

PureAmps

Model S P85 (#2817)
Oct 22, 2012
359
7
SF Bay Area
Interesting theory. Given the timing of this 10k vehicles announcement, where does that put us in terms of what the analysts were forecasting and/or the pace of 500 cars delivered per week? On track/above/below?

That would be above the target rate of 400/week. They produced 3,100 vehicles in 2012. Assuming 400 vehicles/week and 14 weeks in the quarter that would be 5,600 vehicles so far in 2013 at their projected rate for a total of 8,700 vehicles produced. So if they hit 10k already, then they are about 1300 vehicles ahead of schedule. We already know their *delivery* rate was higher the past few weeks at 500/week, so their production rate is presumably even higher. The highest reported VIN I've seen reported is in the 8800 range. If that vehicle was produced a few weeks ago, then they are not far off from 10k.

Maybe Elon delayed the announcement until Tuesday because they are not going to hit the number by Thursday and need a few extra days to hit the target....
 
Last edited:

Norbert

TSLA will win
Oct 12, 2009
5,410
1,626
San Francisco, CA
Just to clarify, I'm not even going to say probably. Tesla is not buying another production facility. The Nummi factory can produce close to 500,000 a year, nor is Tesla near getting to producing close to that. The most realistic announcement is big new technology, since 4 of his recent tweets have described gen 3 as "Audi a4 or a BMW 3", and saying that he has some "really cool tech that they can't talk about yet" <----- that is what we are going to see. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN we are going to see a Gen3 prototype on the 4th year anniversary of the Model S prototype (week of). I am beyond pumped

Agree about the possibility that it may have to do with the tech, but I don't think they have a prototype at this point in time.
 

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