TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Tesla Tomorrow presentation

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by TEG, Jun 14, 2011.

  1. dpeilow

    dpeilow Moderator

    Joined:
    May 23, 2008
    Messages:
    8,572
    Location:
    Winchester, UK
    Interesting. The slide about Model S platform extensions generating more shareholder value than Gen III and eliminating the 160 mile battery particularly so.
     
  2. markwj

    markwj Moderator, Asia Pacific

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,665
    Location:
    Hong Kong
    First time I've seen actual battery cost written down as well. Can we assume 240 mile battery is roughly equivalent to roadster?
     
  3. tdelta1000

    tdelta1000 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2009
    Messages:
    1,667
    Location:
    South Florida
    #4 tdelta1000, Jun 15, 2011
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2011
    TEG strikes again with some great information and I found the Toyota service agreement to be very compelling. It seems that TM could use Toyota as a dealership distribution point if thing grow faster than expected.
     
  4. rabar10

    rabar10 FFE until Model 3

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2010
    Messages:
    1,333
    Location:
    Indianapolis, IN
    It's worth being explicit about the authors here -- a group of university MBA students. This is a class project presentation.

    Are all of these financials etc. already publicly available elsewhere?
     
  5. Talkredius

    Talkredius Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2010
    Messages:
    230
    Location:
    Hueckelhoven, Germany
    I don't think so, on the first glance it looks promising but the education for the TM Tec has to be (and actually is) more like a an electrician and even with parts of an engineer than like a car mechanic.
    And this will be one of the biggest problems for the service of EVs for the conventional car builders.
     
  6. jcstp

    jcstp Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2011
    Messages:
    1,627
    Location:
    Belgium
    look at ev-production-numbers
    Am I right to assume these numbers are incorect already after 2 months!
    I thought Nissan produced already the presumed annualy numbers of 2011 in 2 months!
     
  7. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2006
    Messages:
    14,792
    Location:
    CA CA
    Mechanics replace parts that diagnostics machines say are bad.
     
  8. richkae

    richkae VIN587

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2008
    Messages:
    1,917
    The battery pack cost number is a very simple estimate of $299 per kWh times kWh.
    Where did the $299 come from?
    I would expect the packs made from 2200mAh to be less per kWh than the packs made from the new 3100mAh cells.

    But their price difference between a 160 mile and a 300 mile pack is much less than $20000, and I expect that reflects reality because Tesla can make a bigger profit on the big packs.

    If you multiply the Roadster 56kWh pack by the $299 estimate you get $16744.
     
  9. richkae

    richkae VIN587

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2008
    Messages:
    1,917
    Regarding the service problem and using Toyota:
    Even if they just used Toyota facilities and had to bring Tesla people in it would be a huge win.
    When you make a service appointment you wait for the availability of a Tesla tech at the location nearest you - if the wait is only a few days its the exact same experience of trying to schedule a Toyota for service at the same Toyota location.
    The fact that the Tesla tech will be able to show up at the Toyota dealership and use their lifts and facilities will make the amount of tools and parts he needs to bring with him much more convenient for him.
    And it will be much more convenient for the customers of having a place to drop off and pick up the car from.
     
  10. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2010
    Messages:
    15,853
    Location:
    Ottawa, Canada
    ...just like pretty much every ICE car these days.
     
  11. strider

    strider Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2010
    Messages:
    2,920
    Location:
    NE Oklahoma
    But Tesla will need to train Toyota tech's on Tesla systems anyway so they (Toyota) can support the RAV4-EV.
     
  12. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2009
    Messages:
    4,424
    Location:
    San Francisco, CA
    Toyota will also have a plugin hybrid which I think they are building on their own, and in any case, the Prius already has a battery, electric motor and electronics as well, so why should service be a such a big problem? Just an additional set of error codes, replacement parts, etc, similar to what the plugin hybrid will require as well.
     
  13. William13

    William13 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2011
    Messages:
    943
    Location:
    South Bend
    This presentation is very similar to Morgan Stanley report several months ago. The biggest/best idea in this presentation is to eliminate the 160 version and drop price when battery prices permit. The idea of only doing extensions of the s platform is obviously not sustainable. Of course it has better payback in short run than progressing to gen 3 /whitestar. But the company would stagnate and go bankrupt.
     
  14. TEG

    TEG TMC Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2006
    Messages:
    17,252
    Location:
    Silicon Valley
    #15 TEG, Jun 15, 2011
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2011
    This?

    This?

     
  15. William13

    William13 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2011
    Messages:
    943
    Location:
    South Bend
    Yes.
    Yes.
    I read whole Morgan Stanley report. It was very informative. I highly recommend reading this for the Tesla addicts like me.
     
  16. William13

    William13 Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2011
    Messages:
    943
    Location:
    South Bend
    Actually, the report you have is an abridged version of a fifty page report that I paid for several months ago. Don't remember how to get there or what it was called.
     
  17. JRod0802

    JRod0802 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2010
    Messages:
    661
    Location:
    Boston, MA
    Link to 50 page report:
    Are you also investing in Tesla?
     
  18. TEG

    TEG TMC Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2006
    Messages:
    17,252
    Location:
    Silicon Valley
    Ah, OK... Suxxer 'leaked it'...
     
  19. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2011
    Messages:
    2,379
    Location:
    SF Bay Area
    I love the photos of Fifth Ave:


    5th-ave.jpg

    5th-ave.jpg


    Shows what happens when a disruptive technology catches hold. Now, I'm just old enough to have read stories about people making fun of those in horseless carriages, and all the hassles they went through. "Get A Horse!" was a common refrain in the first decade of the 20th century, as they passed motorists struggling with their cars:

    Horse And Wagon vs Horseless Carriage : U.S. Bureau of Public Roads, Department of Agriculture, Educational Film Service : Free Download Streaming : Internet Archive

    CEP217.gif


    Which reminds me of the recharge fiasco at a recent EV conference where some Leafs didn't have enough juice to make the trip home.

    Anyone who has read "The Innovator's Dilemma" understands the technology advancement and adoption curves of new technology that initially isn't as good as the existing technology in some ways, but is better in others that end up mattering more. Eventually the disruptive technology gets good enough that the switch is made. For EVs, as others have pointed out, that will happen when the realistic range is about 500 miles on a charge.
     

Share This Page