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Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by TEG, Jun 14, 2011.
Interesting. The slide about Model S platform extensions generating more shareholder value than Gen III and eliminating the 160 mile battery particularly so.
First time I've seen actual battery cost written down as well. Can we assume 240 mile battery is roughly equivalent to roadster?
TEG strikes again with some great information and I found the Toyota service agreement to be very compelling. It seems that TM could use Toyota as a dealership distribution point if thing grow faster than expected.
It's worth being explicit about the authors here -- a group of university MBA students. This is a class project presentation.
Are all of these financials etc. already publicly available elsewhere?
I don't think so, on the first glance it looks promising but the education for the TM Tec has to be (and actually is) more like a an electrician and even with parts of an engineer than like a car mechanic.
And this will be one of the biggest problems for the service of EVs for the conventional car builders.
look at ev-production-numbers
Am I right to assume these numbers are incorect already after 2 months!
I thought Nissan produced already the presumed annualy numbers of 2011 in 2 months!
Mechanics replace parts that diagnostics machines say are bad.
The battery pack cost number is a very simple estimate of $299 per kWh times kWh.
Where did the $299 come from?
I would expect the packs made from 2200mAh to be less per kWh than the packs made from the new 3100mAh cells.
But their price difference between a 160 mile and a 300 mile pack is much less than $20000, and I expect that reflects reality because Tesla can make a bigger profit on the big packs.
If you multiply the Roadster 56kWh pack by the $299 estimate you get $16744.
Regarding the service problem and using Toyota:
Even if they just used Toyota facilities and had to bring Tesla people in it would be a huge win.
When you make a service appointment you wait for the availability of a Tesla tech at the location nearest you - if the wait is only a few days its the exact same experience of trying to schedule a Toyota for service at the same Toyota location.
The fact that the Tesla tech will be able to show up at the Toyota dealership and use their lifts and facilities will make the amount of tools and parts he needs to bring with him much more convenient for him.
And it will be much more convenient for the customers of having a place to drop off and pick up the car from.
...just like pretty much every ICE car these days.
But Tesla will need to train Toyota tech's on Tesla systems anyway so they (Toyota) can support the RAV4-EV.
Toyota will also have a plugin hybrid which I think they are building on their own, and in any case, the Prius already has a battery, electric motor and electronics as well, so why should service be a such a big problem? Just an additional set of error codes, replacement parts, etc, similar to what the plugin hybrid will require as well.
This presentation is very similar to Morgan Stanley report several months ago. The biggest/best idea in this presentation is to eliminate the 160 version and drop price when battery prices permit. The idea of only doing extensions of the s platform is obviously not sustainable. Of course it has better payback in short run than progressing to gen 3 /whitestar. But the company would stagnate and go bankrupt.
I read whole Morgan Stanley report. It was very informative. I highly recommend reading this for the Tesla addicts like me.
Actually, the report you have is an abridged version of a fifty page report that I paid for several months ago. Don't remember how to get there or what it was called.
Link to 50 page report:
Are you also investing in Tesla?
Ah, OK... Suxxer 'leaked it'...
I love the photos of Fifth Ave:
Shows what happens when a disruptive technology catches hold. Now, I'm just old enough to have read stories about people making fun of those in horseless carriages, and all the hassles they went through. "Get A Horse!" was a common refrain in the first decade of the 20th century, as they passed motorists struggling with their cars:
Horse And Wagon vs Horseless Carriage : U.S. Bureau of Public Roads, Department of Agriculture, Educational Film Service : Free Download Streaming : Internet Archive
Which reminds me of the recharge fiasco at a recent EV conference where some Leafs didn't have enough juice to make the trip home.
Anyone who has read "The Innovator's Dilemma" understands the technology advancement and adoption curves of new technology that initially isn't as good as the existing technology in some ways, but is better in others that end up mattering more. Eventually the disruptive technology gets good enough that the switch is made. For EVs, as others have pointed out, that will happen when the realistic range is about 500 miles on a charge.