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Tesla: Too little range at

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by porc, Oct 18, 2014.

  1. porc

    porc Member

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    Cars have one core function: Effective Transport.

    With effective I mean: Transport me from A to B in the least amount of time with the least amounts of resources consumed.

    Teslas cars are at their weakest at exactly that core function: They have limited range, a high price tag and take a long time to recharge.

    1) If you take 296 miles, you have to knock off 10% for battery degradation, and up to 30% if you want to drive at 80 mph, with less than ideal weather and an uphill road.

    That leaves you with about 178 miles.

    2) You will have to recharge for about 30 min for 50% or 1 hour or more for 100%.

    3) Most cars are parked curbside, so for most people there is 0 infrastructure in cities.

    Electric cars are a long way away from overtaking ICE cars.

    For this to happen, in my humble opinion Elon Musk needs to achieve the following:

    1) Increase range by 100%
    2) Decreases total costs of ownership by 50% (35.000 dollar car)
    3) Decrease charging times by at least 50%

    A 200 EPA rated mile, 35.000 dollar car misses the mark, as many gasoline cars have greater functionality (range, refuel times, infrastructure) at the same or better total cost of ownership. It would have to be a 450 mile EPA Rated car and charging times would need to plummet by 50% for the EV revolution to gain traction.
     
  2. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    May be for YOU Model S have not enouph range. But this is your preference - for most people 265 miles range + SC network is enouph. Moreover people SAVE time by not being forced to waste time visiting gas stations - remember every morning one wakes up to fully charged vehicle.

    Second - most people in cities do have their garages. May be changing neighborhood should help in your case? Anyhow adding charging stations to condo parking should not be a problem in most cases.

    Third - MS is very much competitively priced against M5 and Panamera, models with which MS competes directly. And one could not get 3.2s 0-60 from crap like M5. You are claiming that Panamera/M5 should cost $35k, correct? Good luck throwing such demand to BMW/Porsche.
     
  3. Arb1ter

    Arb1ter Member

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    The optimizations for personal transport speed and price are mostly motorcycles, public transport, and airplanes, yet people often use cars instead. There are many reasons why someone will pick one form of transportation over another, and in order to "take off", electric vehicles only need to win in the "average case" for most people's needs, not in very long trips.

    Again, worst-case scenarios are only of minor importance if those scenarios do not occur often.

    This will take decades to address completely, but per-car EV infrastructure cost is much lower than expected fuel savings.

    A 200-mile, $35000 car is reasonable if it is competitive with similarly priced cars. Also, all three will eventually happen with scaleup and tech improvement.
     
  4. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Great first post porc. So much new perpective. The next few years will tell if you're right. It sounds like you put a lot of thought in to this, so you probably are.
     
  5. porc

    porc Member

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    If your arguments were true, electric cars would already have taken off. The reality is, that long ranged trips are important to consumers, even if they only make up 1-5% of the total miles driven . Nobody will pay 40000 dollars (which probably will be the cheapest version for the Model 3) for a car that lets you drive 100 something miles before you need to recharge for it up to an hour. Thats just not compelling enough and sounds like a step backwards for most, not like a revolution.

    If you want a revolution, offer the range as well as the recharging times people demand.
     
  6. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Much like your entire post you presuppose that BEVs need to be superior in all metrics for 99.9% of the population for the BEV revolution to gain traction.

    This is absolutely not the case.

    BEVs need to be a superior proposition for 2% of the new car buying population and increase at least 10% each year.

    That would have BEV factories humming at full capacity and exposing an ever greater population to the benefits of BEVs.

    It is one thing to read about BEVs in the local paper or on the net but another to see your neighbors with similar lifestyles using BEVs every day.

    The BEV revolution is on track worldwide if not in Germany is just yet.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The base Model 3 will be ~$35k and least 500k people globally will pay at least that much for a car that gets 200 EPA miles, has a very low center of gravity, has 100% torque at Zero RMP, is a complete blast to drive,and has the lowest cost of ownership in its class.
     
  7. porc

    porc Member

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    The problem with your argument is, that you mistakenly believe that range and recharging times are minor metrics, and that a complete inferiority in these two metrics can be counter balanced by things like acceleration and how quiet the electric car is.

    People demand long ranges and quick recharging times. If long ranged trips were not important, why is the Leaf no selling in huge numbers? The reality is, that 100 something real world miles will not translate into a EV revolution like some hope. Especially if the target price is in the 40.000 dollar range (Model 3).
     
  8. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Good to know that you know what the people want. By the way don't forget to e-mail Elon and his team so they don't keep running head on in to the abyss.
     
  9. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    99% of cases marginal recharge times for BEVs are 20 seconds. 10 seconds to plug in when you get home from work and 10 seconds to un plug in the morning.

    Tesla and Elon agree with you that sub 200 EPA mile converted ICE cars are not compelling BEVs. LEAF is a converted VERSA. Model 3 will be completely different.

    If your argument is correct why is there a 3-6 month waiting list for Model S two plus years after introduction?

    For at least 5% of the new car buying population range and recharge times will be more that adequate for the Model 3 when combined with all its other attributes.
     
  10. Arb1ter

    Arb1ter Member

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    People already pay $70000 for a 208 mile car and wait in line for months to receive it. The key is in making the overall experience better than other cars of similar price.

    For people who charge at home, electric cars save time relative to gas cars for <150mi trips because there is no need to go to a gas station. With a proper long-range charging infrastructure, an EV will take roughly 30% longer to go on extended trips. If only a handful of long trips are made per year, this may be less time than is saved in the typical case.
     
  11. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    As a matter of fact, this year Model S outsell Panamera worldwide. Panamera worldwide sales for first 6 month of 2014 were 13500 units. So 28k annual sales. Tesla aiming to deliver 35k Model S this year.

    So EVs already better than traditional ICE in some market segments. At least more buyers found MS more attractive option compared to Panamera, which is quite an achievement. And Tesla haven't covered whole world with sales network, in many countries one could not buy or service Tesla.
     
  12. porc

    porc Member

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    For me it states delivery in december for a P85. Thats about 2 months. And these wait times will probably decrease once Tesla has satisfied pent up demand in australia and asia.
     
  13. Arb1ter

    Arb1ter Member

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    High-end models are given higher priority.

    Everyone who has bought a Model S up to this point has done so despite it lacking AWD and most driver assist features. With Tesla now adding these features, and the continued expansion of the Supercharger network, many more will want to buy.
     
  14. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Please someone ban this troll porc!
    Did you register with this site just to come post this junk... Please go somewhere else.
     
  15. GSP

    GSP Member

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    #15 GSP, Oct 18, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2014
    You are right about long trips being important to consumers. DC fast charging in general, and especially Tesla's SuperCharger network address this problem very well. It is usually slightly less convenient than ubiquitous, and fast refueling, gasoline and diesel stations. However they are free (pre-paid) which is a nice compensation.

    You don't need to spend time to "fill up" at SuperChargers. Instead just fill enough to get to the next SuperCharger or to your destination (plus a 20% reserve). This will result in 10-30 min stops, not 1-2 hours. Start the day with a range charge and time one stop with lunch. That alone is good for 500-600 km per day with just the one stop! If you are going further, a second 30 min stop makes a good afternoon break. Put your time to use by taking a walk, reading a book, shopping, or have a coffee and surf the net. If instead you leave early, and do your second 30 min SuperCharger stop with breakfast, you can really make good time.

    I expect to see range and recharge times slowly improve to maybe twice today's levels by 2025. This will be helpful, but not really necessary. Tesla's specifications (430 EPA km, and 550 kph SuperCharging) are really quite good for most people's everyday use.

    You are also right that reducing cost will be needed to compete with lower priced gasoline and diesel ICE cars. This will come, but slowly. It will take decades to build the large scale battery plants and material supply chain needed to produce high volume cars. In the meantime, EVs can compete well with the higher priced ICE cars.

    GSP

    PS. Also consider the PHEV as a solution to use the existing fuel stations on trips, but charge at home for everyday use. The Chevrolet Volt (Opel Ampera) has been available at lower price point than Tesla's long range EVs ($25-30k after tax credits in USA). I have been driving a Volt for almost 4 years now, and this solution has been great for me.
     
  16. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    Well Tesla Model S is one of the leaders of large luxury car segment in US. And that advantage over competitors would not likely to go anywhere. Current estimates place Model S sales into 1300 cars delivery in US monthly. And that probably conservative estimate. Here is September sales of competing models:

    USA_large-luxury-car-sales-chart-September-2014.png

    And it do looks like MS will start to outsell those models worldwide in the coming years. Remember MS sales were only getting stronger in US in last 20 months at least.
     
  17. LittoDevil

    LittoDevil Member

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    He has valid points.... but the truth is, everything has to start from somewhere... Tesla motors is pioneering the way and the investments, advancements will pave the way. I have a 2013 P85+ that EPA says 265 miles.. I've never gotten it.. I've even drained the entire battery in as fast as 65 actual miles. My 80-100+ mph freeway driving yields about 110 miles but the truth is... I rarely ever need to drive 265 miles in one day around the same area unless I go on a trip and.. I found the supercharger nice to use and it's a trade off. Faster charging, higher capacity will come with time. :)

    Larry
     
  18. Vitaman

    Vitaman Member

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    65 Miles on a full charge?
    Never owned a Model S but I will in December and that comes as a big surprise.
    In my ICE I can vary the range around town on a tank of gas from between 210 to 240 miles depending on driving style but that's only a 15% difference.
    Is the difference in Range on your Tesla really that extreme?
     
  19. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    If you drive it that hard you get voltsge sagging and in fact it's very hard then for the car to calculate SOC (state of charge) properly. I would argue it's quite impossible to get less than 100 miles out of a full charge in any realistic driving scenario.
     
  20. LittoDevil

    LittoDevil Member

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    Don't let my numbers affect your decision to own the vehicle. I drive the hell out of my car, probably use up the most KW per mile than any other owner. And as Johan mentioned, if you drive it hard, the current limiter will kick in so you actually can't drain it as fast as I did. However.. if you do a lot of stop and go, sprints around the city which.. I don't condone.. you can. Out of my 10 months of ownership, 22000 miles, I have went thru over 4 sets of tires and probably was on a mission to see how fast I can drain the entire battery pack.. lol.. range anxiety? nah... I also managed a top speed of 135 mph which .. I don't think anyone has achieved neither.. it's either 133 or 134 mph.. anyways enough about me :)

    I also forgot to add.. stop and go with full throttle sucks up a lot of energy.. moving a vehicle that heavy from a stop at full acceleration takes a lot of kilowatt.. I'm not an electrical engineer so I can't calculate how much but it's A LOT of power. I've even got both my front brakes to smoke... =X..

    Actually now that I'm thinking about that one drive cycle.. I think it was 90% charge in around 65 miles.. my average watt hour per mile was over 800.. I gotta find the picture on my phone.. even if you drive 80-100+ mph your averaging probably 450 wh/mile.

    Larry
     

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