Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

the points about the impact on ICE OEMs economies of scale and 3 shifts were eye opening ... I realized innovators dilemma but only in concept... Munro in this video makes it real .. unfortunately for OEMs it is too late for them to convert to BEV... only one with a shot as Munro points out is probably VW and I only give them a 50% shot

Yes, it is surprising how much ICE OEMs are struggling to make good EVs, and to a lesser extent even good versions of their ICE vehicles, on a consistent basis.

I think this is a result of many years of conservative business decisions, minimal risks, slow change and minimal change, and compliant customers who happy to settle for a yearly refresh with a few minor tweets.

This is an intentional moat, I'm consistently surprised by how bad they are, I think everyone including Tesla and Elon is surprised.

This is like lining up at the Olympic 100 meter final, and looking across to see all other other runners are over 80.

Not only do I not see a Tesla killer as a risk, I wish the other European, Asian and American BEV makers were better, otherwise, the Chinese are shaping up as the main competition. For the sake of the mission, a few more players would not hurt.

I think we also need to be generous applaud serious efforts and give them some encouragement, governments may need to step in to help some of them. I'm not sure they are all worth helping.

 

[Beltsbear]

In case you were worried about the coming competition.

The 2021 Audi e-tron GT will sound unlike any electric car

This is not a onion article.

So now we have proof that they put more effort into the sound 'technology' than the infotainment system.

 

[gabeincal]

So now we have proof that they put more effort into the sound 'technology' than the infotainment system.

GM will take care of the infotainment part with the Unreal engine...

 

[Curt Renz]

HuffPost - this evening: Solar Expected To Dethrone Coal, Become ‘New King Of Electricity,’ Global Forecast Finds | HuffPost

 

[StealthP3D]

SpaceX and Starlink are one. An IPO of Starlink will reward SpaceX shareholders.

If Boring figures it out - which they will (all a dry run for Mars) - and they IPO, it will also be at a huge valuation.

But you do not see SpaceX as a trillion dollar company when they get to Mars?

Should be so lucky as to have shares in any of them, IMO.

TSLA will outperform them all over the long run.

When SpaceX solves Mars transport, billionaires will not want to live in a more inhospitable climate than the summit of Everest. Yes, some will pay big bucks and dedicate a year of their life to put another feather in their cap (visited Mars) but it is not, at it's essence, a very profitable endeavor. Starlink will not IPO until it is already highly valued. It might do well but not as well as Tesla. The IPO of Starlink will probably comprise the bulk of SpaceX appreciation and this is not very accessible to most of us mere mortals.

Even a relatively poor person can benefit from being able to drive to work in a fun, reliable and inexpensive to operate $25,000 car and this is a huge market (along with the associated value of having a huge installed base of Tesla owners who can buy upgrades, insurance and who knows what else). Then there is the mid-tier and mid-upper tier cars which is also huge. Don't forget the potentially most valuable Tesla market of all: energy. And let's not even talk about self-driving taxis. Tesla has so much growth left in markets with high margins it's not even a good comparison to satellite data and Mars transport.

Basically, Tesla addresses a huge portion of what millions of people need while SpaceX addresses what a few billionaires will be willing to fund and satellite data will not be as valuable as the huge markets Tesla addresses with transport and energy. I'm less clear on the potential future value of The Boring Co. but intuitively I don't see how it could match TSLA. I suppose if it IPO'ed soon enough and at a low enough price, it could be awesome but the ultimate market is not as big of an opportunity as those being addressed by Tesla.

 

[StealthP3D]

HuffPost - this evening: Solar Expected To Dethrone Coal, Become ‘New King Of Electricity,’ Global Forecast Finds | HuffPost

Solar with storage might de-throne traditional coal, but what about modern "clean coal"?

/s

 

[dc_h]

So now we have proof that they put more effort into the sound 'technology' than the infotainment system.

They put more effort into the sound technology than into sound technology!

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm less clear on the potential future value of The Boring Co.

It may have more potential than is currently apparent:-

• Transport / Freight tunnels / Including public transport / Robo-taxis
• Underground real estate / food production. (if Climate Change gets really bad)
• Mining
• Underground utilities, water, sewage, optical fiber, electricity
• Selling and maintaining mass produced Boring machines (different sizes)

Even if all of this does happen, it will happen slowly, Tesla is starting from a bigger base, with a faster trajectory...

In 20 years time Tesla is definitely bigger, in 50 years, maybe Boring Co has caught up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Oct 13, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "AAPL Falls Far from Tree; TSLA Rolls Uphill"

Traded: $15,187,756,325.04 ($15.19B)
Volume: 34,169,452
VWAP: $444.48

Close: $446.65 / VWAP: 100.50%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $416.192B / $184.18B = 225.97%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $397.70
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $261.34
Nota Bene: 4th tranche of CEO comp. likely unlocked last week

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 48.6% (56th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 39.2% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.81% of Short Volume (47th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "Its an upside-down market as money chases gains"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Green Pete]

It may have more potential than is currently apparent:-

• Transport / Freight tunnels / Including public transport / Robo-taxis
• Underground real estate / food production. (if Climate Change gets really bad)
• Mining
• Underground utilities, water, sewage, optical fiber, electricity
• Selling and maintaining mass produced Boring machines (different sizes)

Even if all of this does happen, it will happen slowly, Tesla is starting from a bigger base, with a faster trajectory...

In 20 years time Tesla is definitely bigger, in 50 years, maybe Boring Co has caught up.

Boring Co scales way faster than tesla or spacex.

Once boring co has a proven track record boring co could really only be limited by how many tunneling machines they produce. It's service based growth with no competition. Even if the demand for transport tunnels is limited by % of cars on the road that can use them (EVs) the potential use for service lines for electrical, sewage, making subterranean walking paths for cities, which would in theory also open up more space for subterranean stores/malls/distribution centers etc. is pretty high.

Robotaxis would counter that though.

 

[MC3OZ]

Boring Co scales way faster than tesla or spacex.

Once boring co has a proven track record boring co could really only be limited by how many tunneling machines they produce. It's service based growth with no competition. Even if the demand for transport tunnels is limited by % of cars on the road that can use them (EVs) the potential use for service lines for electrical, sewage, making subterranean walking paths for cities, which would in theory also open up more space for subterranean stores/malls/distribution centers etc. is pretty high.

Robotaxis would counter that though.

They only scale quickly once they mass produce Boring Co machines, eventually that will be similar to making cars, except many of the machines will be significantly larger.. They will buy a lot of cars and components from Tesla...

it my take 3-5 years to finalize the design, and 10 years to develop mass production, it will be tricky to scale..

 

[StealthP3D]

This is an intentional moat, I'm consistently surprised by how bad they are, I think everyone including Tesla and Elon is surprised.

I agree with how bad the EV offerings from traditional auto are.

But I doubt Elon is surprised about this. He knows what it took to get his line-up to it's current state of art and he knows how slow traditional auto innovates. An EV from a traditional manufacturer is basically a pig with some lipstick applied. It's still better than their ICE offerings but not by much.

 

[gabeincal]

Fremont flyover from today as requested. Not quite sure what my takeaway is, but here you go:

• Kato parking lot was cleaned up for Battery day and they're back at it again. Lots of work ongoing
• Giga Press 1 now has a chimney and lots of rear cast pieces lying around - no sign of whether the press is in production yet
• Giga Press 2 is getting ready, though still no roof
• Behind the presses, near GA 4.5 (?), there is a long 'studded' road where they test vehicles and you can see them running up and down
• Factory parking lot is full to the last post - bullish

Enjoy

 

[kanweg]

the points about the impact on ICE OEMs economies of scale and 3 shifts were eye opening ... I realized innovators dilemma but only in concept... Munro in this video makes it real .. unfortunately for OEMs it is too late for them to convert to BEV... only one with a shot as Munro points out is probably VW and I only give them a 50% shot

id3 is the best selling car so far this month in the Netherlands. 671 out of 8830. VW was smart to not start at the top of the market but right below Tesla. The market for affordable cars is bigger (and even the ID3 is stretching budgets but is possibly helped by subsidies (I’m confused whether the budget for that has run out or not)). They gain from Wright’s law there, and I give them a much better chance than 50/50.

Tesla really needs to come with the Model Too.

 

[JustMe]

Tesla really needs to come with the Model Too.

I know, right?! Like, what’s the holdup?

/*sarcastic joke*

 

[FreqFlyer]

I know, right?! Like, what’s the holdup?

That's easy, Tesla trying to figure out a way to introduce a $25K car and not torpedo the higher margin 3 and Y sales.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

It may have more potential than is currently apparent:-

• Transport / Freight tunnels / Including public transport / Robo-taxis
• Underground real estate / food production. (if Climate Change gets really bad)
• Mining
• Underground utilities, water, sewage, optical fiber, electricity
• Selling and maintaining mass produced Boring machines (different sizes)

Even if all of this does happen, it will happen slowly, Tesla is starting from a bigger base, with a faster trajectory...

In 20 years time Tesla is definitely bigger, in 50 years, maybe Boring Co has caught up.

But right now it's at something like 1/100 of Teslas valuation. So as an investment if you could invest in both today I would diversify a significant amount of my 100% Tesla into BoringCo.

 

[new_sneakers]

Regarding EU regulatory credits:

It's the last quarter of 2020. This year manufacturers get a credit for an imaginary car alongside their credit for every electric car they sell (emitting less than 50g/km CO2).

Next year, they have to sell two such cars to add an imaginary car's credit (and in 2022, they will need to sell three cars).

In this situation Renault has done well alongside Tesla, and has earned more credits than they need.

Next year though, if Renault sell the same number of electric cars as this year, their credits reduce by a quarter, then the following year by another sixth.

It is likely that Renault will need to keep most of their credits for their own fleet's emissions.

So next year, there should be less competition for credits, and manufacturers may not have the option to snub Tesla's credits.

Then in 2025, the 95 grams average is set to reduce by 15%. Plenty of credits in Tesla's future, but not so many this particular quarter perhaps.

 

[graphilwar]

re: Starlink, I’m imagining not just space-based internet for Earth but also blanketing all of Mars....and serving as the link between the two worlds.

so that one day Martians can send us pictures of their cats via Starlink, and Earthlings can respond with memes.

TSLA will outperform them all over the long run.

When SpaceX solves Mars transport, billionaires will not want to live in a more inhospitable climate than the summit of Everest. Yes, some will pay big bucks and dedicate a year of their life to put another feather in their cap (visited Mars) but it is not, at it's essence, a very profitable endeavor. Starlink will not IPO until it is already highly valued. It might do well but not as well as Tesla. The IPO of Starlink will probably comprise the bulk of SpaceX appreciation and this is not very accessible to most of us mere mortals.

Even a relatively poor person can benefit from being able to drive to work in a fun, reliable and inexpensive to operate $25,000 car and this is a huge market (along with the associated value of having a huge installed base of Tesla owners who can buy upgrades, insurance and who knows what else). Then there is the mid-tier and mid-upper tier cars which is also huge. Don't forget the potentially most valuable Tesla market of all: energy. And let's not even talk about self-driving taxis. Tesla has so much growth left in markets with high margins it's not even a good comparison to satellite data and Mars transport.

Basically, Tesla addresses a huge portion of what millions of people need while SpaceX addresses what a few billionaires will be willing to fund and satellite data will not be as valuable as the huge markets Tesla addresses with transport and energy. I'm less clear on the potential future value of The Boring Co. but intuitively I don't see how it could match TSLA. I suppose if it IPO'ed soon enough and at a low enough price, it could be awesome but the ultimate market is not as big of an opportunity as those being addressed by Tesla.

 

[kengchang]

Fremont flyover from today as requested. Not quite sure what my takeaway is, but here you go:

• Kato parking lot was cleaned up for Battery day and they're back at it again. Lots of work ongoing
• Giga Press 1 now has a chimney and lots of rear cast pieces lying around - no sign of whether the press is in production yet
• Giga Press 2 is getting ready, though still no roof
• Behind the presses, near GA 4.5 (?), there is a long 'studded' road where they test vehicles and you can see them running up and down
• Factory parking lot is full to the last post - bullish

Enjoy

Please do a fly over this


New 33,925 SF battery marriage building with new 8,880 SF open buffer canopy at north side of North Paint building.