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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    I don't think FSD is gonna be a major catalyst at one point in time, even the full release. It's gonna take a while for people to wrap their heads around it, and the FUD will be absolutely rampant.

    All this talk about advanced beta wider releases and 4Q earnings/guidance is making it hard to plan. Theoretically we should peak during the inclusion buying. but what about P&D day? And what about the 1M guidance and FSD profit at earning?

    How is a fella supposed to know when to sell these covered calls? The volatility for these next two months should be batshit crazy.
     
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  2. StealthP3D

    StealthP3D Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  3. JustMe

    JustMe Member

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    How about selling them two months from now?
     
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  4. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    I think there's a more than decent chance the inclusion peak is far higher than any SP in the new year. Or at least that's what I was certain of earlier today!

    Guess I'll just split it up somehow if we don't climb over $650 or so during inclusion.
     
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  5. insaneoctane

    insaneoctane Active Member

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    You make an interesting point... Elon loves to squeeze the shorts and S&P Dec 21 spike will squeeze the shorts, so I wonder if they will purposely delay FSD wide release to occur AFTER the S&P squeeze because of the potential FUD? I'm pretty anxious to try it myself, but I would be willing to wait if it pains the shorts a little more
     
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  6. Tim S

    Tim S Supporting Member

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    It will make an impact on Q4 earnings if Tesla can recognize more FSD revenue in December. That may impact the SP in late January.
     
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  7. StealthP3D

    StealthP3D Well-Known Member

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    #219607 StealthP3D, Nov 19, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2020
    Voice is power.

    Tesla is not the end game here. The punching bag get's moved around to suit their masters. Your analysis is shallow.
     
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  8. StealthP3D

    StealthP3D Well-Known Member

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    You would probably have a different perspective if you had seen ARK's new price target (unreleased).

    Also, I think your two sentences are in direct conflict with one another. Unless you believe the market currently values Tesla's autonomous program at zero.

    Assuming Tesla's autonomous program is valued by the market above zero, and I'm sure it is, then we can expect it's value to increase as people gain a better understanding of exactly what Tesla has (as well as the increase in value due to further development).
     
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  9. heltok

    heltok Member

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    Congrats all!
    Even before robotaxi a wide release will be a major source of profit. If Tesla in 2022 does 2M vehicles with todays 30% take rate on a 10k option, that is $6B in pure margins. With a P/E of 50 that is $300B in market cap. Plus the PR and increased demand that will follow. And by then AEB and Autopilot using the same perception should be incredible!

    If we just assume that Fremont, Shanghai, Austin, Berlin each will do max 500k/year already FSD should equal more than half of Tesla’s market cap. IMO analysts don’t understand what is happening with FSD, as more and more of them do share price has been increasing...
     
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  10. Green Pete

    Green Pete Supporting Member

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    Worth noting that Ark provides tiers price targets with like 6 tiers.

    The reason they are delaying release of the price targets might be a desire to see where FSD is at general release so instead of one moonshot target with robotaxis theyll have multiple robotaxi targets eg:
    1. robotaxis in just SF
    2. robotaxis in all major american cities
    3. robotaxis in all major north american and european cities
    4. robotaxis covering the entire us and major european cities
    5. robotaxis covering all of north america and europe
    etc.

    I realize that The solution is a general solution that should work everywhere, however it possible if not likely that some cities will present far more edge cases than others, or that rural america has more edge cases than cities (or maybe the other way around, who knows). Exciting time for tesla tho

    edit: brought this up because there's been a lot of "i want arks new target", but we could see their bear case exceed their previous bull case if the stars align in the right way and their new bull case may be mind blowing
     
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  11. JBRR

    JBRR Member

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    $8bn of buying in TSLA

    157 of 189 large cap managers that track S&P500 that GS follows do NOT hold TSLA.


    "Tesla’s scheduled December 21 inclusion in the S&P 500 could result in $8 billion of demand from active US large-cap mutual funds. Based on current market pricing, Tesla would account for around 1.5% of the S&P 500 index. Since many large-cap core funds are benchmarked to the S&P 500, managers will have to consider including the stock in their portfolios. Of the 189 large-cap core funds in our universe, 157 funds that manage around $500 billion in AUM did not hold TSLA on September 30. Assuming these 157 funds choose to hold TSLA at benchmark weight following its inclusion in the S&P 500, we estimate $8 billion of potential net buying of the stock (2% of TSLA market cap"

    The brave warrior managers that decide not to buy will have nightmares about MS "bull case"

    $8bn of buying in TSLA | The Market Ear
     
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  12. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope And the meek shall inherit the Earth

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    Trading above $500 in Europe and looks like some rotation of value/recovery stocks back into growth/tech now everyone realises there will be a C19 vaccine, but just not yet.
     
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  13. wipster

    wipster Gold Member

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    502 us in Germany, night all, you too @Lycanthrope , hope your team wins and your beer is cold!
     
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  14. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope And the meek shall inherit the Earth

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    #219614 Lycanthrope, Nov 20, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2020
    Now that's what I call a "smooth transition of power"!

    Going to be an interesting day, methinks and browsing ahead at the options charts, $500 strike figures every week for the foreseeable future. What's interesting is that end of December onwards, $600 and then $700 starts to become more prominent.

    If $500 could be soundly left behind, then there'd be quite some hedging to be done.

    In fact I don't understand why the hedge-funds wouldn't just front-run from here anyway, maybe they are, that's the main buyers right now, but they try their luck anyway today...
     
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  15. S3XY

    S3XY Active Member

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    #219615 S3XY, Nov 20, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2020
    I opened Roth IRA's for my daughters when the SP recently dropped below $400. When I told one of them how much it had gone up she said "In a week?!" I told her, "It's TSLA."
     
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  16. StealthP3D

    StealthP3D Well-Known Member

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  17. astrotoy

    astrotoy Supporting Member

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    Very wise move. They will thank you in a decade! I did a similar thing, going all in to TSLA with my Roth IRA (converted in 2012 and holding a career's worth of 403b, 457 and IRA contributions) in late 2013 with half and 2015 with the other half. I didn't need it for retirement, so did it for my two grandchildren who were born in 2011 and 2014. I didn't get it on the ground floor (I could have after buying my MS which was delivered in 2/2013) but waited. So my cost basis averaged 150 pre split, not 35-40 if I had bought earlier in 2013. Now seven years later, the Roth is a tax free 17 bagger. I think it could be a 100 bagger or more by the time they go to college, so part of their education should be how to do philanthropy. I hope I'm still around to see them graduate from college.
     
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  18. aubreymcfato

    aubreymcfato Supporting Member

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    Ah, who would've thought I can *actually* be helpful in a forum like this :D
    You should interview him on your channel!
     
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  19. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    Wait, that's not binary?
    • Put all available money into TSLA
    • Hold
     
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  20. Nocturnal

    Nocturnal Supporting Member

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    I almost yelled at my risk adverse friend from my hospital bed when she mentioned she had a chunk of money in a high yield savings account at .5% interest (taxed as ordinary income to boot). She asked for a run through of her investments after I heal. Lol
     
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