Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

I have lot of respect for Ark for what they do, sure they do a great job trading Tesla but holding Ark for 10% exposure for Tesla doesn’t work for everyone, I am sure Ark also misses unexpected upside time to time on Tesla, 80% of most stock moves happen in 20% time frame.

I have a strong conviction that ARK knows what they are doing

 

[Tslynk67]

Lower than 30d avg volume so far - previous 2 days were markedly higher.

When volume does pick up, can expect price to follow.

Everyone knows the MM's are going to dick about with the price today. On the other hand, a good day for whales to accumulate, just keep buying every time they push it below $500...

 

[jerry33]

But, but...Consumer Reports!

I dislike mentioning CR whether they have a positive or negative review. Over the years, they have panned virtually every product that I've found superior. CR's methodology seems to be lowest common denominator wins and supports industry standards as being gospel. (Guess who writes the industry standards.) So typically their highest rated products are the mediocre ones that have no originality. Their testing methods leave a lot to be desired because they test as received with no adjustment, and use the same test for each product (even when the instructions out of the manual are different). This generally leads to the best products having the lowest rating since the higher end products almost always require a bit of customization to really show their stuff. However, if you want to buy a cheap mediocre product (which many people do, and I don't fault them for this), then their reviews have merit because you can pick the best of the lowest common denominator products.

 

[Rockster]

Do your kid's need to be working? or certain age?

Any income counts. Babysitting, cutting grass, etc. It doesn't have to be a W2 employer as long as it's legitimately earned income. My wife is a consultant who operates under our LLC. We put our early teen daughter to work filing and performing other office tasks and the LLC pays her directly into her own ROTH IRA.

 

[Drax7]

My apologies if this upsets some of you; in my opinion, WB is still *just* guided by profits no matter how these are obtained, no matter if they hurt people taking in the larger view. Not denying he did some great investments and didn't do direct damage in GE's Jack Welch style, still doesn't address my point: he's just guided by profits and has little understanding or interest beyond profit numbers.

Too much work to document what pro traders know, but I'm listing below some not too great investments/ positions he took, all in the name of profits. With the same amount of capital to invest (wisely and profitably, as he knows how) he might have done much good, but nah, he just wanted profits looking at established businesses (well run, with a moat, etc). Imagine if he only had 1/10th of ARK's talented industry analysts!
Because our system is based on pure profits and the true nature of capitalism has been perverted by greedy CEO's corporate and corporations well shielded from responsibilities when found guilty of criminal acts (see below for references).

Alright, some tidbits on BRK's and WB I find problematic:

- his investment/ loan "saving Goldman Sachs" from possible bankruptcy(1) - OK, that was pure financial maneuvering, possibly knowing full well that the US Government (with leaders mostly ex GS and beholden to the status quo anyway) wouldn't let them fail.

- his investment in so many financial companies/ banks.
Seriously, what do these banks produce, besides profits when gambling (illegally, now legally thanks to the half baked repeal of Dodd-Frank) with depositors money, and getting their losses absorbed by the Fed (aka us the taxpayers) when their gambles don't work out. Arbitraging, for economic benefit ha hahhahaha see how HSBC et all colluded on exchange (or was it interest rates). Doesn't really matter: please just Google "wallstreetonparade goldman sachs" to get a list of little reported scandals, use Citibank or HSBC, or Wells Fargo instead to find the other ones.
Essentially whenever caught (and the SEC really tries hard not to), these financial institutions get a slap on the wrist, pay a token penalty, keep all their ill gained profits, AND continue on their brazen criminal behavior.

- his "genius" investment in Coca Cola. Or See's Candies, bof ... really ..how much did they contribute to US obesity and medical procedures and drugs (however "profitable) ?
Personally I much prefer companies like Vital Farms Bringing Ethically Produced Food to the Table | Vital Farms which are very profitable ( great IPO too! ) and do the right thing for animals and small family farms. To me that's a better use of the capitalist system.

- finally his support for coal and gas companies, even tho climate change may be real, just because it makes business sense. Really?
Warren Buffett bets $9.7 billion on a long future for natural gas
Or " Buffett summed up his rejection of climate proposals succinctly at the 2014 Berkshire annual meeting: “I don’t think in making an investment decision on Berkshire Hathaway, or most companies — virtually all of the companies I can think of — that climate change should be a factor in the decision-making process.” from
Here's what Warren Buffett thinks about climate change

On Goldman Sachs many scandals gone by with little real punishment, or if you prefer Wells Fargo's scandals gone unpunished , same with Citbank ... Would we have suffered if these banks had been allowed to fail and their executives sent to jail? .. Iceland did that and came out well ahead while we are still kicking the can down the road with who knows what end in sight.

So, all in all, with more power comes bigger responsibilities - that the current financial system does not discourage destructive decisions for people and the environment doesn't mean we should just not care about how our financial decisions end up affecting the rest of us and the planet. Elon Musk truly is a hero for doing the right thing even if the odds are not in favor, because it is the right thing to do. Imagine ... (yes, also the Beatles) .. He didn't mind risking his entire fortune too BTW. Compare to old Warren Buffet.. meh..in so many dimensions!

(1) Here’s how Warren Buffett made $3.1 billion on his crisis-era bet on Goldman Sachs

Does “We the People” Include Corporations?
Corporations now enjoy privileges of personhood, and at the same time shields executives from illegal /criminal acts.

yeah right, and he is giving most of his money to the gates foundation.
Please give it a break.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Pretty much a mirror of yesterday's action at $495, maybe the best they can do is $510 today after all.

 

[Knightshade]

CR being incentivized to support those who cooperate with their business model isn't a "vast global conspiracy", it's a flavor of what we've been seeing up close for years. Same reason CNBC supports their advertisers and sells time to hedge funds.

Traditional print organizations are hanging on by a thread. They'll become more and more willing to take money as they near the end. That's just natural.

But again, CR does not take advertising.

So I remain unclear who you think "they" is here that they're "incentivized" to support.

The only people supporting their business model are... their subscribers.

Which are the same people who sent in the 329,000 replies to the car survey they simply reported the results of.

It's not like they haven't called out Legacy auto companies many many times in the past when they found problems and safety defects or something.



If you want to call their methods outdated, or their product irrelevant- there's absolutely a case to be made for either.

I've yet to see any evidence of any specific bias or bad acting though, or even a credible theory about what would cause one.

I don't think there's some kind of conspiracy with CR. I do think they apply old metrics to completely new products that put EVs at a disadvantage. However they do it to be consistent and to level the playing field. Things important for an EV is mere foot notes for ICE, therefore having Tesla falling behind in many of their metrics.

For example, any software update that requires a car to be taken to the shop should be a reliability issue as it's a shop visit if we count panel gaps as a reliability issue. However a lack of OTA doesn't matter and has zero weight. So I think CR just needs to get with the time but Tesla is too fast of a moving target as they are defining what is more or less impt for the future of transportation.

Exactly this. The autopilot comparison story is a perfect example... if you only read the top-line headline you get a vastly different story, one where Tesla did poorly, than if you look at the individual test results- that clearly show in the areas likely to matter to most they easily had the best scores.

That article, if you bother to read the details, shows Tesla off as way ahead of the competitio- which wouldn't be the result at all if CR had some anti-EV agenda.... But all the OMG CONSPIRACY folks saw was the headline that focused on the least important component of an ADAS system.



It's important to understand more than just the headline in any report... and also what data is being presented and if/how it might be useful.

Things like data on brand or form factor reliability for a given appliance type for example still has a lot of value from a source like CR, even if their methodology for modern vehicle testing is very long in the tooth.

 

[Knightshade]

That includes finding "GM's Super Cruise Is Far Better Than Tesla's Autopilot: Consumer Reports" because GM monitors the driver's eyes.Dynamic headline not matching the reasoning behind it.

Perfect example of only reading the headline and not the actual article

 

[Tslynk67]

Isn't there a Consumer Report thread?

TBH I preferred the "chat room" posts...

 

[EVMeister]

I know this isn't the Xpeng thread or whatever. But Elon Musk going on a nice anti-Xpeng rampage on Twitter. Could be informative to some.

Edit: He's being very restrained. Maybe we'll get more later.

 

[mejojo]

Isn't there a Consumer Report thread?

TBH I preferred the "chat room" posts...

Why hasn't the spanking machine been fired up yet?????

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[CaliBear1]

wow it took me a long time to get the Rush 2112 reference ....I am on the train to Bangkok

Speaking of Bangkok, I spotted this beauty parked at the JW Marriott the night TSLA began its big S&P inclusion run up. The red plates indicate it’s new. Until MIC Teslas make their way to Thailand with ASEAN treaty duty-free benefits, they will be a rare sight, as importing them comes with something like a 100-200% import tax.

 

[Pezpunk]

View attachment 610235


Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Weird headline. It's *guaranteed* to spark $8 billion in demand just through sheer obligation of index tracking funds. The question is how much other demand it will spark.

 

[joh01652]

My apologies if this upsets some of you; in my opinion, WB is still *just* guided by profits no matter how these are obtained, no matter if they hurt people taking in the larger view. Not denying he did some great investments and didn't do direct damage in GE's Jack Welch style, still doesn't address my point: he's just guided by profits and has little understanding or interest beyond profit numbers.

Too much work to document what pro traders know, but I'm listing below some not too great investments/ positions he took, all in the name of profits. With the same amount of capital to invest (wisely and profitably, as he knows how) he might have done much good, but nah, he just wanted profits looking at established businesses (well run, with a moat, etc). Imagine if he only had 1/10th of ARK's talented industry analysts!
Because our system is based on pure profits and the true nature of capitalism has been perverted by greedy CEO's corporate and corporations well shielded from responsibilities when found guilty of criminal acts (see below for references).

Alright, some tidbits on BRK's and WB I find problematic:

- his investment/ loan "saving Goldman Sachs" from possible bankruptcy(1) - OK, that was pure financial maneuvering, possibly knowing full well that the US Government (with leaders mostly ex GS and beholden to the status quo anyway) wouldn't let them fail.

- his investment in so many financial companies/ banks.
Seriously, what do these banks produce, besides profits when gambling (illegally, now legally thanks to the half baked repeal of Dodd-Frank) with depositors money, and getting their losses absorbed by the Fed (aka us the taxpayers) when their gambles don't work out. Arbitraging, for economic benefit ha hahhahaha see how HSBC et all colluded on exchange (or was it interest rates). Doesn't really matter: please just Google "wallstreetonparade goldman sachs" to get a list of little reported scandals, use Citibank or HSBC, or Wells Fargo instead to find the other ones.
Essentially whenever caught (and the SEC really tries hard not to), these financial institutions get a slap on the wrist, pay a token penalty, keep all their ill gained profits, AND continue on their brazen criminal behavior.

- his "genius" investment in Coca Cola. Or See's Candies, bof ... really ..how much did they contribute to US obesity and medical procedures and drugs (however "profitable) ?
Personally I much prefer companies like Vital Farms Bringing Ethically Produced Food to the Table | Vital Farms which are very profitable ( great IPO too! ) and do the right thing for animals and small family farms. To me that's a better use of the capitalist system.

- finally his support for coal and gas companies, even tho climate change may be real, just because it makes business sense. Really?
Warren Buffett bets $9.7 billion on a long future for natural gas
Or " Buffett summed up his rejection of climate proposals succinctly at the 2014 Berkshire annual meeting: “I don’t think in making an investment decision on Berkshire Hathaway, or most companies — virtually all of the companies I can think of — that climate change should be a factor in the decision-making process.” from
Here's what Warren Buffett thinks about climate change

On Goldman Sachs many scandals gone by with little real punishment, or if you prefer Wells Fargo's scandals gone unpunished , same with Citbank ... Would we have suffered if these banks had been allowed to fail and their executives sent to jail? .. Iceland did that and came out well ahead while we are still kicking the can down the road with who knows what end in sight.

So, all in all, with more power comes bigger responsibilities - that the current financial system does not discourage destructive decisions for people and the environment doesn't mean we should just not care about how our financial decisions end up affecting the rest of us and the planet. Elon Musk truly is a hero for doing the right thing even if the odds are not in favor, because it is the right thing to do. Imagine ... (yes, also the Beatles) .. He didn't mind risking his entire fortune too BTW. Compare to old Warren Buffet.. meh..in so many dimensions!

(1) Here’s how Warren Buffett made $3.1 billion on his crisis-era bet on Goldman Sachs

Does “We the People” Include Corporations?
Corporations now enjoy privileges of personhood, and at the same time shields executives from illegal /criminal acts.

Yes, this. Thank you for posting.

My respect for WB, both as an investor and as a citizen, has fallen precipitously with his recent bets on fossil fuels. And it's not just WB, but the entire community of short-sighted, small-minded, STEM-flunking profiteers looking to turn a quick buck.

My investment in TSLA is ultimately a vote for physics, because at the end of the day all the profits in world mean nothing if one doesn't have a stable climate and a stable food supply coupled with clean air and water.

I bought a 3 last May even though it was FAR from the best thing I could do for myself financially. After purchasing the car I put even more money in TSLA because I thought it was a great car and the company needed support. I was really depressed that such a great, pro-environment, small American company was getting *sugared* on day after day in the press.

I am a terrible investor. But I do have a strong background in biology, physics and chemistry. I bought TSLA for the sole reason that I felt that they were doing more to combat climate change than any other company on the planet, not because I thought the stock was going to 9x my money.

Tesla truly is the People's Company, as someone here as mentioned before.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I know this isn't the Xpeng thread or whatever. But Elon Musk going on a nice anti-Xpeng rampage on Twitter. Could be informative to some.

Edit: He's being very restrained. Maybe we'll get more later.

That's because xpeng stole Tesla's engineers and source code: Tesla case against Xpeng Motors over alleged Autopilot code theft faces roadblock

Which is why Elon's point about pace-of-innovation being so important. By not being static, xpeng wasn't able to profit off of the stolen code, instead having to solve the technical problems themselves. Their inclusion of lidar should mean permanently higher prices for their vehicles AND self-driving vehicles that just aren't as capable. Check back in next year to see how they do compared to FSD.

 

[elasalle]

Who's buying today? Added some Jun 21's in 540 range. Short term play for quick profit if SP takes off in next 2-3 weeks on S&P play.
The Stalling @500 for max pain to play out looks like a good opportunity.

 

[corduroy]

Just bought a few Dec 31 and Jan 15 OTM calls. Short term calls are definitely pushing my comfort zone, but let's have some fun.

 

[AudubonB]

~~~(at least)Two topics that, once again, came to this thread with a modicum of topicality have been pounced on by those who have to throw their 2 watts in and not only derail the continuity of the conversation but also demonstrate a disturbing and toxic mix of conspiracy and ignorance.

Any further posts that mention either Warren Buffett/BRK or Consumer Reports must do so specifically and solely in the context of TSLA, or they will be deleted and their posters sent to TimeOut.~~~

 

[LTC_RRR]

I think Tesla will use big data and can identify which area has no disengagements and which areas still need work. Then they may just geo fence areas that has no disengagements and expand from there as they tackle other edge cases.

Problem with schol zones is that the speed limits are a function of both time and geography