Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Hard to tell if that's a he or a she.

I see what you did there ....

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Time to turn this ship around.

I’ll handle this.

****Flips Switch****

SPANK

I gave it a very little push. Bought 10 shares at $491. My bid on 600c Jan 23 didn’t hit. I just missed the bottom of the MMD. That’s the problem with using non-real-time quotes and a basic trading platform. Edit: Note to self, trade the damn options first on that dip, then follow up trading shares.

Edit: This just executed. Bought 5 contracts 12/24/2020 $545.00 at $26.00. So, now I’m really hoping for a decent price pop on Monday.

 

[juanmedina]

I sold 200 shares (15-20% of my shares), and bought 3x sept 2021 calls.

I do need SP for sept2021 to be $650 for these calls to be worth more than the 200 shares I sold.
(650-200 = 450x300 = 135k , while 200 shares x650 = 135k)

However - I did have about 14k left after buying those 3x sept2021 calls.
I spent those on some nice (imho) $500 jan/feb-2021 calls as a S&P500 play.

So far - I am up an extra 15-20k, compared to if I had just HODL those 200 shares.

I have no idea how this will turn out in the end. Might sell all calls and go back into stocks after Q1 ER.
Or just roll the sept2021 calls a year at a time.

Thanks for the info. I assume the shorter term contracts are helping a lot on those gains. I might trade some more shares today.

 

[BriansTesla]

Making the problem insurmountable because the car doesn’t know the time of day, can’t identify when the school crossing signs are flashing or not, there’s no way for counties or cities to make road changes in the future that are more conducive and thoughtful in terms of FSD vehicles —

That you can’t imagine a solution doesn’t mean it’s something that can’t be resolved, perhaps easily. Roundabouts are way more challenging to negotiate than school zones.

I want to know how they’re going to teach it to make toast. Now that’s something to fret over.

Drive through Robotaxi or owned vehicle delivery- AM for breakfast in bed.

 

[Tslynk67]

Lots of folks buying LEAPS right now. A couple of data points that might help guide some future decisions...

Case-study 1:

September 2019, I bought 10x Jan 21 $650's, total premium $1000. I sold these in two tranches, 5 in January this year for $36 per contract - so 36x profit and $18k cash. The rest I offloaded during the big run-up beginning of February for $220 per contract, 220x and $110k cash.

Total $128k from a $1000 investment - not bad, eh? Well yes, but if I still held them now, $1.8m

Case-study 2:

Towards the bottom of the C19 dip I converted 100 shares to cash - around $45k, and bought 10x June 22 $1400. Sold them two weeks later for $120k - so nearly 3x profit in two weeks, niiiiice!

Value today, $1.4m

Now OK, I was really fresh to LEAPS back then and I've managed to trade this initial $1000 up to $1m during the split and it's still around $900k now, mostly in other LEAPS I acquired in the meantime, but my point is, think carefully about when you sell.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

$8bn of buying in TSLA

157 of 189 large cap managers that track S&P500 that GS follows do NOT hold TSLA.

"Tesla’s scheduled December 21 inclusion in the S&P 500 could result in $8 billion of demand from active US large-cap mutual funds. Based on current market pricing, Tesla would account for around 1.5% of the S&P 500 index. Since many large-cap core funds are benchmarked to the S&P 500, managers will have to consider including the stock in their portfolios. Of the 189 large-cap core funds in our universe, 157 funds that manage around $500 billion in AUM did not hold TSLA on September 30. Assuming these 157 funds choose to hold TSLA at benchmark weight following its inclusion in the S&P 500, we estimate $8 billion of potential net buying of the stock (2% of TSLA market cap"

The brave warrior managers that decide not to buy will have nightmares about MS "bull case"

$8bn of buying in TSLA | The Market Ear

I'm a bit confused about this story. Isn't $8B only 16M shares of TSLA? How does that cover all ETF/Mutual fund and other obligations to track the S&P500?

 

[ZsoZso]

Damn, I could not hold back myself and already spent my money at $495, then it goes down to $490 laughing me in the face

 

[Nocturnal]

Drive through Robotaxi or owned vehicle delivery- AM for breakfast in bed.

Food delivery is another killer app for autonomous cars. Imagine a van pulling up with heated compartments in the side with your McDonalds on a hungover Sunday morning. The success of companies like door dash and Uber eats will be fleeting.

 

[WattsHappening]

I sold 200 shares (15-20% of my shares), and bought 3x sept 2021 calls.

I do need SP for sept2021 to be $650 for these calls to be worth more than the 200 shares I sold.
(650-200 = 450x300 = 135k , while 200 shares x650 = 135k)

However - I did have about 14k left after buying those 3x sept2021 calls.
I spent those on some nice (imho) $500 jan/feb-2021 calls as a S&P500 play.

So far - I am up an extra 15-20k, compared to if I had just HODL those 200 shares.

I have no idea how this will turn out in the end. Might sell all calls and go back into stocks after Q1 ER.
Or just roll the sept2021 calls a year at a time.

I commend all of you who are taking the calculated risk of leveraging using options to take advantage of this unique trading situation. I wish you all continued outsized returns.

I, on the other hand, am conservative (at least by this board's standards!) and will continue to just accumulate what I can over time and HODL. My conservative approach to my portfolio has kept me from reaping the huge gains experienced by many here. But I'm still thrilled with my returns and am able to watch the action with a little less stress about short term price swings. I have to say it's tempting though.

 

[insaneoctane]

Lots of folks buying LEAPS right now. A couple of data points that might help guide some future decisions...

Case-study 1:

September 2019, I bought 10x Jan 21 $650's, total premium $1000. I sold these in two tranches, 5 in January this year for $36 per contract - so 36x profit and $18k cash. The rest I offloaded during the big run-up beginning of February for $220 per contract, 220x and $110k cash.

Total $128k from a $1000 investment - not bad, eh? Well yes, but if I still held them now, $1.8m

Case-study 2:

Towards the bottom of the C19 dip I converted 100 shares to cash - around $45k, and bought 10x June 22 $1400. Sold them two weeks later for $120k - so nearly 3x profit in two weeks, niiiiice!

Value today, $1.4m

Now OK, I was really fresh to LEAPS back then and I've managed to trade this initial $1000k up to $1m during the split and it's still around $900k now, mostly in other LEAPS I acquired in the meantime, but my point is, think carefully about when you sell.

I'm not an advanced trader. I don't do options (been tempted tho). I have lost money in the market. I have lost money with $TSLA. But, the only reason I've ever lost money in $TSLA is because I sold. I learned YEARS ago from this. The only time I've lost money in my $TSLA investments is when I sold them. Don't sell $TSLA. HODL. Of course this causes a disconnect between my income and net worth... especially when $TSLA keeps going on sale!

 

[Unpilot]

Just in case you need a chuckle.

GM stock's price target raised after company's EV plan

 

[wipster]

Damn @Lycanthrope , I sleep in a bit with the SP in Germany in the low 500's and wake up to the SP in the US in the 490's! Did ya start drinking a bit early?

Just kidding my friend... the SP looks like a bloody buzzsaw this morning with no substantial volume. I have to think they're all Arizona Cardinal fans since my team won last night. Hopefully the week and a half off will allow them to heal. Can't remember the last time I've seen so many twisted lower extremities.

Alright, go team TSLA! Good thing our game goes on forever and there is no real competition (except for CR that is)...

 

[YAWD]

I sold 200 shares (15-20% of my shares), and bought 3x sept 2021 calls.

I do need SP for sept2021 to be $650 for these calls to be worth more than the 200 shares I sold.
(650-200 = 450x300 = 135k , while 200 shares x650 = 135k)

However - I did have about 14k left after buying those 3x sept2021 calls.
I spent those on some nice (imho) $500 jan/feb-2021 calls as a S&P500 play.

So far - I am up an extra 15-20k, compared to if I had just HODL those 200 shares.

I have no idea how this will turn out in the end. Might sell all calls and go back into stocks after Q1 ER.
Or just roll the sept2021 calls a year at a time.

All fine and good but please also consider taxes in your calculations. Just because a strategy leads to higher $ value does not necessarily mean that those $ will flow to you.

Happy to be wrong here.

 

[insaneoctane]

Having NOTHING to do with EVs and technology.... Would you rather be invested in a company who's CEO only owns 1 publicly traded stock - his company where he's ALL IN or a CEO who just sold $1M shares of their company while claiming how rosey their future was?

 

[Tim S]

I'm a bit confused about this story. Isn't $8B only 16M shares of TSLA? How does that cover all ETF/Mutual fund and other obligations to track the S&P500?

That $8B is from Active funds that benchmark the S&P 500 and will probably buy TSLA. It does not include Index funds that track the S&P 500 and must buy TSLA.

 

[Big Time]

Trumps media professional just announced something about coronovirus vaccine roll out? Could be good for the market overall

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Pretty much a mirror of yesterday's action at $495, maybe the best they can do is $510 today after all.

I respectfully disagree. My guess is $499.69 close. I’m guessing that the MM’s are bigger than the front runners.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

That $8B is from Active funds that benchmark the S&P 500 and will probably buy TSLA. It does not include Index funds that track the S&P 500 and must buy TSLA.

Ah, thank you. So we can just add that right on top of the index buying, splendid.

Trying to get a grasp of current short interest. Best I can find is:

NASDAQ Shares Short (prior month Sep 29, 2020) 57.13M
NASDAQ Shares Short (Oct 29, 2020) 47.8M
"45.26 million shares shorted" from Short Sight yesterday 11/19. Unclear the effective date of the estimate or if it's a true measure.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I respectfully disagree. My guess is $499.69 close. I’m guessing that the MM’s are bigger than the front runners.

Sounds about right. I'm gonna go with $504.20

 

[Tslynk67]

Damn @Lycanthrope , I sleep in a bit with the SP in Germany in the low 500's and wake up to the SP in the US in the 490's! Did ya start drinking a bit early?

Just kidding my friend... the SP looks like a bloody buzzsaw this morning with no substantial volume. I have to think they're all Arizona Cardinal fans since my team won last night. Hopefully the week and a half off will allow them to heal. Can't remember the last time I've seen so many twisted lower extremities.

Alright, go team TSLA! Good thing our game goes on forever and there is no real competition (except for CR that is)...

I did, matey, won't post pictures here, Fred's on the prowl, but: https://twitter.com/AskDrStupid/status/1329826550892670977

In other news, not a Tesla: https://twitter.com/TeslaStars/status/1329821812675448832

No tendies today, gang, but Monday sure will be interesting...