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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Right - it’s pretty risky to be on the bubble if you get exercised however due to unknown events.

Getting exercised for 4 contracts at 350 is great if Musk is caught holding hands with Mackenzie over the weekend.

Not so great if Musk is interviewed and ask what he thinks share price ought to be. ;)



I addressed all of my 1/18 expirations today. Kicking ball to Feb.

I will need extra undies but I don’t have to buy them this weekend. :D

Note: Better to address your options before options address you.

On a serious note, i think the water is wayyyy too calm this week and volume is super low for all the Tsla news. Either something is slowly leaking pre-ER waiting to bust open or everyone just being cautious b/c of macros waiting for a pull back.

I'll probably close all my Jan positions on next big pop (3%+) and convert it to puts in anticipations of Brexit and China escalations, i'll still keep growing my shares though.
 
He must have become a Tesla shareholder, but wants to keep it a secret from his General Motors friends. ;)

Dated in 2009 but still fun to rub it in.

Lutz sold 81,360 shares of the company with a value of about $1.61 each, according to a filing, while North America President Troy Clarke sold 21,380 shares valued at $1.45 each. Vice Chairman Thomas Stephens and Group Vice Presidents Gary Cowger, Carl-Peter Forster and Ralph Szygenda also sold stock. As recently as 2004, GM stock was worth more than $45 a share.

GM spokeswoman Julie Gibson said the transactions were made in a window when such transactions are allowed, following the company’s quarterly earnings report on May 7.

The executives are preparing for GM’s possible bankruptcy, which GM CEO Fritz Henderson called “more probable” yesterday during a conference call, though he declined to specify the likelihood. If (when) the automaker enters bankruptcy, the executives’ shares likely would become worthless.
 
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Maybe I didn't go back far enough, lost track of this thread... But maximum pain for options that expire next week is sitting at $400. I was going to sell TSLA and buy the dip pattern, but it looks like that might not be a good idea for the chance for MM to ramp up the stock price to kill some of the options. Anybody else seeing this options issue?
I'm seeing $330 maxpain for next week.
I have reduced my $TSLA holding further today, only 20% of usual number of shares and no options at this time. I think Q4 was good enough, but I'm worried about Q1 with reduced tax credit there might be a greater impact than we anticipate and I'm not sure if EU/China sales can cover the gap.
with macros uncertain, I hope to buy back if it hits $300 again, or after Earning call.
 
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I'm seeing $330 maxpain for next week.
I have reduced my $TSLA holding further today, only 20% of usual number of shares and no options at this time. I think Q4 was good enough, but I'm worried about Q1 with reduced tax credit there might be a greater impact than we anticipate and I'm not sure if EU/China sales can cover the gap.
with macros uncertain, I hope to buy back if it hits $300 again, or after Earning call.

Reduced tax credit, but also reduced prices. There’s still a gap, but it’s very small and you get the savings right away vs. waiting >1 year.
 
I'm seeing $330 maxpain for next week.
I have reduced my $TSLA holding further today, only 20% of usual number of shares and no options at this time. I think Q4 was good enough, but I'm worried about Q1 with reduced tax credit there might be a greater impact than we anticipate and I'm not sure if EU/China sales can cover the gap.
with macros uncertain, I hope to buy back if it hits $300 again, or after Earning call.

A quick observation I've made with regard to max pain -- that indicator has only proven prophetic when the stock is already in the general area. But when it works, it's scarily accurate.

As to your concerns, I think they have some validity, though personally I think we're going higher between here and mid-February or whenever the earnings call takes place. Afterward, I do agree with the sentiment that there could be other opportunities for entry in the low $300s. The jury is still out on whether or not we're in a bear market; if we are, a broad sell-off is around the corner, and TSLA's ability to weather one is questionable. I've seen it go both ways in just the last few months I've been invested.

At the end of the day, we all have to make our own decisions based on the best available information we have... and cross our fingers that we're right.
 
I'm seeing $330 maxpain for next week.
I have reduced my $TSLA holding further today, only 20% of usual number of shares and no options at this time. I think Q4 was good enough, but I'm worried about Q1 with reduced tax credit there might be a greater impact than we anticipate and I'm not sure if EU/China sales can cover the gap.
with macros uncertain, I hope to buy back if it hits $300 again, or after Earning call.

Looks like we are playing a different game with different expectations.
I am currently 100% in TSLA, and hope to sell 20% if it hits $600 after Earning call. ;)
 
Yeah, inventory in delivery is going to suck in Q1, but they're going to rock it on ASP (and thus margins) vs. Q4. M3 margins should be at least 25% then.

Volume is probably going to be great, too.

I was presuming Tesla would minimise the amount of cars on the water towards the end of Q1, and allocate most of the last month of production to North America.

Although I wouldn’t care if they just decided to bite the bullet and tell the market on the Q4 earnings call that for Q1 they are going to increase inventory to allow for the normal amount of in transit inventory level for combined Europe and China deliveries to be made at something like a 3-4K per week rate (meaning somewhere over 12k of cars on the water at any moment in time I think?)
 
Let me know if you'd rather take this to PM, but I'm very curious: were you holding short calls that you rolled to Feb? Or long calls?
What does this mean? What are short and long calls - I've never heard this terminology when you know the expiration dates. They were going to expire in Jan and were rolled to February which means they arent far off so would be "short" calls? Or are you trying to ask if he holds puts?
 
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Suddenly seeing a lot of predictions here about Tesla going down to 300 again after Q4 earnings. What will it take never to see 300 again? Three profitable quarters in a row? Four? Twenty? Do you guys think we will be stuck in this channel forever, regardless of the fundamentals changing?
Nobody actually knows what it's gonna do. Calling another range-bound drop to 300 is the cynical/easy prediction which could turn out to be the case, but my own strategy here is based on capturing the squeeze and never attempting to swing trade the perceived highs. Could take off any time
 
What does this mean? What are short and long calls - I've never heard this terminology when you know the expiration dates. They were going to expire in Jan and were rolled to February which means they arent far off so would be "short" calls? Or are you trying to ask if he holds puts?

short = you've sold calls/puts, i.e., your balance on these options is negative
long = you've bought calls/puts, i.e., positive
 
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What does this mean? What are short and long calls - I've never heard this terminology when you know the expiration dates. They were going to expire in Jan and were rolled to February which means they arent far off so would be "short" calls? Or are you trying to ask if he holds puts?

If you buy an option that you had not earlier written, you are "long" that option. If you write (sell) an option that you had not earlier bought, you are "short" that option.
 
A quick observation I've made with regard to max pain -- that indicator has only proven prophetic when the stock is already in the general area. But when it works, it's scarily accurate.

As to your concerns, I think they have some validity, though personally I think we're going higher between here and mid-February or whenever the earnings call takes place. Afterward, I do agree with the sentiment that there could be other opportunities for entry in the low $300s. The jury is still out on whether or not we're in a bear market; if we are, a broad sell-off is around the corner, and TSLA's ability to weather one is questionable. I've seen it go both ways in just the last few months I've been invested.

At the end of the day, we all have to make our own decisions based on the best available information we have... and cross our fingers that we're right.

Yup - Max Pain is like a magnet - the further away the price is from it, the less pull it has.

I don’t see any how there could possibly be any problem with demand for Q1 - Tesla will sell every unit it can ship to Europe and China in Q1, and there is still plenty of demand in North America for the 3.
 
There is no actual article. If you click the link the first line is "This headline-only article is meant to show you why a stock is moving, the most difficult aspect of stock trading." i.e. there is nothing more than the headline.

Right, I clicked the link. So I was wondering if there was an article somewhere (maybe in the premium version) that the general public version of B only had the headline of. If not, there was no reason to have a link. I even tried Googling the title keywords to find recent news to no avail.

So, it's moving due to this thing that we made a headline of with no supporting data?
 
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Anything is "possible". IMHO, $300 at any point in between the Q4 ER and the Q1 ER is quite unlikely. But not outside the realm of possibility.

Personally, just like with Q3, I expect the stock's "baseline" to shift up, as a new wave of investors joins in (Tesla having proven itself capable of "sustaining a profit", not just "earning a profit for a single quarter"). I also see more potential for good macro-affecting news (conclusion of Brexit one way or another, conclusion of the US shutdown, a settlement to the US-China trade war, etc) than I see for negative macro-affecting news.
 
Suddenly seeing a lot of predictions here about Tesla going down to 300 again after Q4 earnings. What will it take never to see 300 again? Three profitable quarters in a row? Four? Twenty? Do you guys think we will be stuck in this channel forever, regardless of the fundamentals changing?
All it takes is 500k shares in pre-market to gap it down to $300 and trigger retail panic selling/stop losses.

I think it's stuck in the $250-$390 range until I sell. I did sell 45 shares today so hopefully that will move the price higher for next week. I might need to sell 250-500 shares at $380 and buy some puts to get us to ATH.
 
Suddenly seeing a lot of predictions here about Tesla going down to 300 again after Q4 earnings. What will it take never to see 300 again? Three profitable quarters in a row? Four? Twenty? Do you guys think we will be stuck in this channel forever, regardless of the fundamentals changing?

Don't know about the others, but I definitely do think we'll be trading in a channel (hopefully a rising one). I expect that Elon will take whatever profits Tesla earns and plow it into bringing model Y, semi, and truck production up as quickly as possible (per secret master plan 2).

With how Tesla accounts for their capEx and R&D spend, it'll keep the free cash flow low to the point that the shorts will grasp on the results as evidence that Tesla is not as profitable as everyone thinks - completely forgetting how H1 2018 was proof that the numbers only look bad if you don't know that the "losses" went into ramping up production.

Dumb people just have too short of a memory to expect them to behave otherwise.